Qatar and the withdrawal from the GCC .. between popular desire and political decision

Abdullah Al-Emadi

The announcement of Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Al-Kaabi, Qatar's withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) starting in January next year 2019, raised many questions and was surprised.

Many of the parties concerned with political and economic analysis looked beyond this decision, which comes ahead of an important meeting of the organization, where the most analysis went on to say that the decision is purely political, while there were other views that did not deviate from the strategic plans in advance to expand Qatar's ability to diversify Its investments, and focus on the future material of energy, natural gas, considering the huge reserves that need to be directed a lot of time and effort and money, rather than waste in an organization such as OPEC, which recently deviated from the line and its main goal, T The interests of a few others and others outside it, led by the United States of America.

Despite the conviction of the country's decision-maker that Qatar is not an influential member of the organization, considering its share of production that does not exceed 2% compared to other members, and that the decision is not intended to harm the organization, those who calculate every step taken by Doha in the world of politics or economy, Which is besieging Qatar and led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, sees it as a political decision aimed at them with the intention of harming their interests.

What matters to us in the decision to withdraw from OPEC is that it has once again brought to mind a popular idea in Qatar that has not faded yet since the beginning of the blockade of Qatar in June last year 2017, which is a very short withdrawal from the Gulf Cooperation Council Has not stirred up the crisis, but in recent years has turned into an OPEC-like organization.

Entity routing
One player tries to control the group's decision and wants to direct the entity according to its vision, policies and interests before others. This has been proved on the ground during the siege that is still going on. The Council is still not moving because any move will be based on the desire of the controlling member. Here without much explanation, Saudi Arabia.

The decision to withdraw from OPEC, then, has stirred up enthusiasm among the Qataris again, and the idea of ​​withdrawing from the GCC has become more and more glowing, as they now see and have been active - and still - in various means of communication, calling on their leadership to take a similar decision.

And the declaration of withdrawal from the Council, which if not driven by a strategic crisis dangerous unprecedented in its history as a siege, it will not be moved by anything else, and then remain in it a kind of waste of time and effort, so speaks the mouth of the Qatari community.

What is encouraging and pushing this popular trend of Qatar is that understanding and awareness that is a few months after the crisis, and it has been proven to them that this entity has lost its role a lot, and that the passivity reached an unprecedented level during the crisis, the most recent ignored the previous summit in Kuwait can not be justified , When only the Emir of Kuwait and the Emir of Qatar attended, while the countries of the embargo reduced the level of representation to one of them to be represented by the Minister of State.

Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said earlier that "the continuation of the Gulf crisis revealed the failure of the Gulf Cooperation Council to achieve its objectives and meet the aspirations of our peoples in the Gulf," a reference to the extent of Qatari dissatisfaction at the official level before the popular towards this entity, The forty-year-old, and even became in the conscience of the country that is no longer the presence of Qatar any need, and withdraw from it will not hurt Qatar more than the damage caused by the embargo.

Gulf View
GCC observers have found that the statements of Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, recently before the Council on Foreign Relations during his visit to the United States, that "the GCC lacks the ability to influence and is unlikely to recover its role in the future under the current situation" "What happens to the Gulf Cooperation Council is regrettable because it was the most stable structure in the region, but when the siege on Qatar changed, citizens and the international community changed their view of the GCC. This shows how the Council became a tool, Ineffective e".

Thus, Qatar's official and popular view of the GCC has become an ineffective entity. Thus, the observer can reach the conclusion that staying in it wastes time, effort and money.

The question is what will be the appearance of the next summit in Riyadh, and Kuwait, after not forgetting what happened last year, and Muscat, which was not enthusiastic about the summit in its home, but threw it to the headquarters for any reason, while Riyadh is experiencing a deep international crisis suffocating, looking for any A regional or international solution to whiten some of its image in front of the world. Qatar, official and popular before it, has reached convictions towards the Council almost a decision that is no different from the decision to withdraw from OPEC, especially that the Qatari public opinion motivated the leadership and strongly to take such This decision, which in Qatar is thought to be too late.

Do we expect a Qatari surprise before next Sunday, the date of the Riyadh summit? Perhaps the immediate answer is no ?, and the region is full of surprises, but the real answer will be in front of us in a few days to see what can happen in the Gulf arena, and we are waiting.