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This Sunday, May 5, two million seven hundred thousand Panamanians are called to vote in the presidential election, but also to elect their deputies, mayors and advisers. After five years of presidency of Juan Carlos Varela, the time seems to be changing in this small country of Central America, known throughout the world for the channel that passes through it and which bears his name, but also to be considered a Fiscal paradise. Two candidates stand out in the latest polls. Two candidates for very opposite speeches.
Whoever wins this election, the future Panamanian president will both satisfy his new Chinese ally who wants to invest heavily in Panama, while preserving its relationship with the United States who consider Panama as still part of their squares . Suffice to say that the task promises to be complicated for the lucky one elected.
If we stick to the latest poll published Thursday, May 2, four days before the poll, two candidates compete for the presidential chair. Although seven candidates are running, only three of them are above the 10% voting intent mark. Laurentino Cortizo and Rómulo Roux seem best placed to lead the country.
Cortizo, the candidate who gathers the most
Laurentino Cortizo, member of the PRD, the Democratic Revolutionary Party, stands out with more than 36% of the voting intentions. The 66-year-old left-wing entrepreneur, also a farmer, former minister and former speaker of parliament, wants to focus on education and state reform if he is elected. Social inequalities, poverty, which affects 14% of the population, but also transparency in the management of public affairs are also part of the projects he wants to launch.
Rómulo Roux, Martinelli's heir
His opponent Rómulo Roux, a lawyer by training and also a former minister under the presidency of Ricardo Martinelli's curator, wants to end the economic and social disaster caused, according to him, by the outgoing president Juan Carlos Varela. The program of the Cambio Democratico candidate is above all economic. He also wants to put an end to systemic corruption, just like his main opponent.
But with 26.2% of voting intentions, he is almost ten points behind Laurentino Cortizo. An irreversible gap according to the experts. But Rómulo Roux is counting on the support of supporters of former President Ricardo Martinelli, who, despite being detained for corruption, continues to enjoy a certain popularity among Panamanians in an attempt to reverse the trend.
A society calling for change
Panama, which was listed by the European Union on its blacklist of tax havens, has a reputation as a country where corruption reigns supreme. It must be said that the recent case of the " Panama Papers " (scandal that revealed the existence of hundreds of thousands of financial packages of offshore companies) was not a good advertisement for this small country in Central America. An image that Panamanians would like to see evolve.
Hence the multiplication of independent applications (three of the seven candidates are). Many Panamanians believe that traditional political formations are not able to change a system that has allowed them to emerge and stay in place. Ruben Blades, singer and actor, but especially former candidate for the presidential election in 1994, very popular in his country, just calls to vote for an independent candidate. But as recent polls show, there is almost no possibility that one of these candidates will succeed (Ricardo Lombana, independent candidate, still reaches 19.6% of voting intentions).
A balancing actor to lead the country
Whoever occupies the presidential chair should have a balancing act if he wants to be able to handle the day-to-day affairs of his country. With China looking set to invest heavily in Panama - President Xi Jinping who was visiting Panama in December 2018 pledged billions of dollars and wants to make Panama an essential part of his "New Silk Roads" project -, the United States are on their guard, they who believe that Panama is part of his meadow. Moreover Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State did not hesitate to make the trip to warn his ally of the risks it incurs by forming links with China. According to the US Secretary of State, the investments made by China will only benefit the Chinese government and not the Panamanian people.
One of the main challenges for the future President of Panama will be to eliminate or at least mitigate the task of the Panama Papers scandal. How to ensure that this country is no longer associated with this affair that has made it world famous for being a sanctuary of tax evasion? In 2016, more than eleven million confidential documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca (named after its two founders) detailing financial packages of offshore companies were made public.
Documents that concerned entrepreneurs, but also many celebrities. A case that has soiled the image of this country. And although since measures have been taken - tax evasion is for example now a crime punishable by jail - the work may be long to restore the image of Panama. It must be said that the fact that the incumbent President Juan Carlos Varela is quoted in the scandal Odebrecht (the biggest scandal updated in South America) does not help things.