By Julie VandalPosted on 11-02-2019Modified on 11-02-2019 at 16:55
More than 84 million Nigerian voters are called to ballot on February 16, 2019 to elect - among others - their president. A total of 72 candidates are running for the supreme office, but the real battle for Aso Rock is between the two main parties' candidates: incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari for the All Progressive Congress (APC) and party candidate Atiku Abubakar. opposition, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). A vote that looks very tight between two old roads of politics.
It's been a month since the two leading candidates have been to Nigeria's 37 states. From meetings to rally, from north to south of the country, the flow of supporters is always full. Whether it's the outgoing president, 76-year-old Muhammadu Buhari or his rival former 72-year-old vice president Atiku Abubakar, both are sold out, like the idols of Naija Pop. On social networks, each party competes for superlative to claim the greatest number of fans. A bidding that prompted the national newspaper The Punch to headline last week, "PDP, APC:" My crowd is bigger than yours, "referring to a novel by Nkem Kwankwo. But we are far from the boom years of the oil boom described by the Nigerian author in My Mercedes is bigger than yours .
These records of participation in meetings, on the contrary, hide a growing ambient poverty that now pushes people to fetch some tickets and other gifts thrown by the campaign teams to the crowd. As for a sincere craze, it will be necessary to return. Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar are not particularly popular, not very charismatic either. They are especially figure of septuagenarians, a tad dusty who gravitate in the arcane of the power for more than thirty years. " It's the same old vintage in new bottles, " summed up an editorialist of the news website Sahara reporters. " Too old to be a stakeholder in Nigeria's future ", recently titled another.
The military ....
In the 2015 elections, Muhammadu Buhari's age was already running a lot of ink, but the subject was quickly evacuated with the hope of change. Elected with 53.9% of the vote, the old putsch general signed the first democratic alternation in the country's history. Four years later, the euphoria turned into disappointment. Nigeria is struggling to break out of the economic recession. The fight against corruption is partial because it has not started a reform of the judicial system. As for the fighting against the Islamists of Boko Haram , they did not allow to put an end to the insurrection in spite of the reconquest of certain zones of Borno State.
Very clannish in his way of governing, the native of Daura (State of Katsina) has mainly placed strategic positions of men from his region, accused of taking advantage of the image of incorruptible chief to dig into the fund. An unconvincing assessment of which the outgoing head of state suffers in the public opinion. Sick and very often absent to get treatment for the first two years of his term, "Baba go slow" - "Papa goes slowly" as Nigerians are now nicknamed - is often ridiculed. Judged too rigid. Too austere. Too slow. And unable to embody the function: Muhammadu Buhari is out of step with the 100 million Nigerians who are under 25 years old. Not sure that his opponent, a native of the North and Muslim like him, manages to seduce beyond measure the population of the oil giant, to the point of urging him to go to vote.
... and the businessman
In fact, Atiku Abubar is also an old road politician. After trying everything in the last twenty-five years, Olusegun Obasanjo's former vice president from 1999 to 2007 finally managed to make his way to the doors of Aso Rock, the presidential villa. Inductee main candidate of the PDP, he takes his revenge on several unsuccessful attempts. Baby face and overweight "Oga" (boss pidgin) exhibited as a pledge of confidence, the multimillionaire yet struggling to get rid of an image of corrupt man. Customs agent for two decades before entering politics, Atiku Abubakar has created an industrial empire far too vast to spare strong suspicions of corruption and conflicts of interest. Blessed bread for his opponents who have made their main angle of attack. To which he replies that he has never been sentenced.
In his campaign, this defender of a very liberal policy capitalizes on his career as a businessman. Echoing the economic failure of his rival, Atiku Abubakar intends to " put Nigeria back to work ". And no matter if his manifesto "Atiku's plan" has some unrealistic promises, " an election in Nigeria is not won over a program, but on the ability of candidates to mobilize their electorate via the party, networks and supports " , decrypts Laurent Fourchard, director of research at CERI-Sciences Po. As such, Atiku Abubakar a step ahead. Against all odds, he managed to get rid of two former presidents still very influential in the national political game: Ibrahim Baganguida and the whimsical Olusegun Obansajo who seems to have forgiven his former running mate his opposition to a change of Constitution in 2007. Unhappy candidates from the primary tracked the movement and joined the winner in exchange for job promises. With this support, the businessman can also count on the powerful electoral machine that became the party after sixteen years of unchallenged power.
Capturing the voices of the North
An indispensable element to emerge victorious from an election in Nigeria. A country divided between a predominantly Christian South and a predominantly Muslim North, as well as between three majority community groups (Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo), the choice of candidates is more often based on region of origin or religion. But with two leading candidates Haoussas and northern Muslims, " nothing is played yet ," warns a political adviser who wanted to remain anonymous. " The vote will be played in a pocket handkerchief ." To win, one must obtain the majority of the votes at the federal level and at least 25% of the votes in at least 2/3 of the states, ie 24 out of 36.
A configuration in which the choice of the colistiers plays a determining role. Buhari understood this well by relying once again on the very popular Yemi Osinbajo. Present on the economic and security fronts in the South-East during the long absences of the outgoing president, this 61-year-old Yoruba pastor has established an image of a competent, efficient and honest man. Qualifiers also awarded to Peter Obi, vice-president of Atiku Abubakar. This former governor of South-East (State of Anambra) enjoys a reputation as a technocrat, specialist in economic issues, even if internally this choice of a Christian of the Igbo ethnic group grinds his teeth and surprises by his calculation strategic. " The region is traditionally acquired at the PDP and should therefore vote for Atiku Abubakar, " decrypts Benjamin Augé, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
For its part, Buhari will capitalize on its aura in the North. In 2015, he won a very large number of votes, up to 90% of the vote in some states. An electoral manna all the more valuable as the majority of the 14.5 million additional voters counted in the new electoral roll came from the states of Kano, Borno, Bauchi, Katsina, etc. This is where everything should be played out. " If Muhammadu Buhari has lost ground at the national level, he remains extremely popular in the North, " says Benjamin Augé. " The question now is to what extent his former allies of 2015 from these states who have since migrated to the opposition will be able to capture some of these votes in favor of Atiku Abubakar ." Another unknown: the behavior of voters in the South West. ANC's historical stronghold, a member of the APC Coalition, the Yoruba region is also one where the rate of abstention is traditionally the most important. Despite Buhari's strong dissatisfaction with the business community and an educated and urban population, there is no guarantee that it will carry over to his rival.
The specter of low participation
Illustration of this bitterness and some distrust of the old political guard: the release of the Nigerian Nobel Prize for literature, Wole Soyinka, at the end of January. " I do not want any ambiguity, " he said during a conference in Lagos " I will not vote for either ". A highly respected figure, the writer - who had set his sights on Buhari in 2015 - believes they both deserve " absolute rejection, " and urged the 84 million voters to find a third way, thanks to the other 71 candidates. .
An option that former Minister Oby Ezekwesili intends to make concrete since his withdrawal from the presidential race. The co-founder of the anti-corruption NGO Transparancy International and the Bring Back Our Girls movement, chose not to show up to " focus on building a real coalition " of opposition. But no name has been made public until then. And for analysts, it is unlikely that small political parties play a significant role in this election. " As in 2015, we are likely to have a very low participation rate ," summarizes Benjamin Augé. " Whether it is Atiku or Buhari, neither of the main candidates, does not make Nigerians dream ".
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