Russia is preparing to launch a new phase of efforts to reach new political arrangements in Syria after a change in the balance of power in favor of the Syrian regime. During a speech at the Valdei International Dialogue Forum in Sochi on October 18, 2018, Said that his country achieved its objectives in Syria, pointing out that the military intervention was aimed at fighting terrorism and preventing the fragmentation of Syrian territory, where he called the case of Somalia as a model that Russia has prevented recurrence in Syria, adding that the next stage will be devoted to political settlement on the United Nations. But this does not exclude that there are several challenges that may face those efforts during the next phase related to the main issues that have not been resolved in the past period, primarily the position of the Syrian regime in itself.
Several objectives:
During his speech, Putin focused on the issue of the war on terror in Syria. He pointed out that Russia succeeded in liberating about 95% of the Syrian territory, and therefore considered that the Russian goal is to fight terrorism only, which is inconsistent with some of the data on the ground.
In terms of land clearance, the total area of control and influence in Syria, which was liberated, gives the Syrian regime a control area of about 59.8% according to the July 2018 estimates, while the Syrian Democratic Forces (KDP) controls 27.5% Between the areas of influence of the Syrian opposition up to about 9% and the terrorist organizations, especially «advocated» less than 3%. Thus, the regime imposes control on nearly two-thirds of the area; part of it was based on non-military mechanisms, such as agreements to reduce the escalation reached under the auspices of some regional powers, meaning that Russian intervention was not the only variable that eventually imposed these results despite its obvious effect .
Moreover, this intervention was not aimed at confronting terrorism exclusively, in light of the Russian agenda, which includes several goals that go beyond confrontations with terrorism, such as re-positioning in the eastern Mediterranean, in light of the escalating differences with Western countries on many regional and international files.
Other partners:
What is remarkable in this context is that other parties have participated in achieving some of these goals, such as the United States of America, which supported some local forces, such as the Kurds and Arabs in the east of the Euphrates, in the confrontations that broke out with the Da'ash organization, The international community and its local allies the process of overthrowing the stronghold of the president in Raqqa, not to Russia, Iran or Turkey. In early May 2018, US State Department spokesman Heather Nauwert announced that the United States and the International Coalition, together with them, had launched operations to liberate Syria's last stronghold. "The upper hand in this battle will be for us and for our partners," she said. "We will defend the United States, and we will defend the coalition and the partner forces in the event of an attack on them." This is a confirmation of the direct engagement formula based on US military bases, including the Al-Tanf base on the one hand and local and regional partners on the other, .
The bet on installing Assad's regime was not limited to Moscow alone. The gradual retreat from overthrowing the regime was mainly the result of a change in the policies of some international powers on this particular issue. Western reports indicated that the United States and its European allies had retreated from overthrowing the Syrian regime As a precondition for reconciliation in Syria. On June 21, 2017, French President Emmanuel Macaron said that he "saw no legitimate alternative to the Assad regime in Syria," declaring clearly that he no longer considered Assad's departure a precondition for settling the conflict in Syria.
Syrian Somaliland:
A model that President Putin used in his speech at the Valdei Forum. What is remarkable is that some of the steps taken by Moscow in previous periods suggest that it does not rule out its application at the end. Indeed, some of its officials have already referred to this, like Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who said, at the end of February 2016, "Russia hopes the participants in the Syrian negotiations to reach a formula for the establishment of a federal republic, which is what the Kurds are demanding," which sparked controversy at the time about Moscow's vision for the future of political arrangements in Syria after the end of the military conflict.
On the other hand, other parties rejected this scenario, considering that this could impose serious consequences in the region. Moreover, the intermingling of regional interests imposed a different course related to preserving the unity of Syrian territory, especially in light of the continued activity of terrorist organizations seeking to continue their terrorist operations Inside Syria, despite the severe blows that have been inflicted on it.
Opportunities and Challenges:
Without a doubt, the above does not negate the fact that Russia has become a major party with the ability to participate in identifying potential tracks of the conflict in Syria. This also does not negate the fact that it has played a role in the decline of the activity of terrorist organizations prominently in the past period against the background of the measures that it insisted on taking to settle the situation of some areas where these organizations exist.
But Russia's efforts to continue this role face several challenges, most notably its position on the issue of the reconstruction of Syria, which Western countries were keen to link to open the debate on the future of the Syrian regime in the government and the path of political settlement of the Syrian conflict.
Decreased capacity
Moscow's ability to reach political and security understandings with some parties involved in the Syrian conflict, such as Turkey and Iran, may gradually decline in the light of several developments, including the continued escalation between the latter and the United States over the nuclear agreement and the new sanctions and the outstanding differences between Tehran and Ankara on some key issues , Which does not seem secondary.
In addition, the recent dispute with Israel may impose new changes on the Russian vision of the future of political and security arrangements in Syria, which appear to be on the way of important strategic benefits in the coming period.
The Russian intervention did not aim to confront terrorism exclusively, in light of the Russian agenda, which includes several goals beyond the confrontations with terrorism, such as re-positioning in the eastern Mediterranean, in light of escalating differences with Western countries on many regional and international files.
The total area of control and influence in Syria, which was liberated, gives the regime a control area of about 59.8% according to the July 2018 estimates. The Syrian Democratic Forces (Qods) control 27.5% and the rest are distributed among the Syrian opposition and terrorist organizations.