Mediapart: Sudan is drowning in wars and dictatorship

An analysis of France's Mediapart and his books by Rene Baccaman shows that Sudan has been divided after decades of wars into two states in 2011. He says his southern states have become a member state of the United Nations, but wars have not stopped in either the north or the south.

The writer adds that the skirmishes continue in Sudan, and that there are demonstrations calling for an end to the "dictatorship" and that violence and terror continue in southern Sudan despite the new agreement between the parties.

The analysis deals with the chronic instability in Sudan, a country that stretches geographically over a vast area between Chad and the Red Sea and between Egypt and Uganda, to say that the country is still divided, and its future can not be predicted as it was during the last half century. The year 2019 in terms of the end of 2018 violence and anxiety in both capitals Khartoum and Juba.

Conflict still persists in the states of Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile between local armed groups and government forces, despite the decline in violence, after the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of more than two million refugees a decade ago.

He added that attempts to negotiate and mediate between the rebels and the central government have been futile throughout this period, pointing out that the new social and political crisis did not absorb the extent of the system after added since last December to the revolutions of marginal states, especially fueled by the battle of arable land.

Sudden protests
The recent popular protests in Khartoum and 12 cities began with the triple price of bread, fuel prices and inflation, he said. These protests soon took political dimensions, demanding the departure of the "dictator" Omar al-Bashir in power. Since his military coup in 1989.

President al-Bashir accused the "left-wing parties and Israel" of wanting to "destabilize" the country before declaring that the state "will make real reforms to ensure a decent life for the citizens."

The site says that this promise did not convince the opposition leaders or the demonstrators or even some members of the ruling coalition, because it comes after thirty years of absolute power, corruption and tyranny.

He points to the demand of former Prime Minister and Umma Party leader Sadiq al-Mahdi, who has recently returned from exile, to "change the regime" and condemn violence and armed repression.

He adds that a number of leaders believe that the Bashir regime is unable to overcome the crisis because of its political, economic, regional and international isolation. He attributed to the representative of a local NGO saying that the regime was panicked. He added that he had never seen elements of the regime In the current panic.

The Sudanese economy is in a state of chaos, says the website, noting that it has lost most of its resources because of division, that Bashir's credibility is at its lowest level and that the space available to him is minimal.

Opposition leaders - many of whom have been arrested on charges of vandalism - fear an increase in the crackdown that has so far killed 19 people according to the government and some 40 according to Amnesty International. They believe President Bashir has always proved that to save his regime, The army is called the people.

Ethnic wars
The analysis adds that while the Khartoum regime faces an economic and political crisis because of its disastrous administration, corrupt government and the loss of most of its financial resources, the new South Sudan state, which inherited the oil wealth, is also living the region's diseases of economic stagnation and instability.

The writer says that if the religious difference between the Muslim north and the Christian south and the pagan one sparked the first civil war in Sudan and led to the division of the country into two, it is the ethnic rivalries and the quarrels of leaders that ignite in southern Sudan, the young civil war, where the killings continue one after the other .

After four months of a peace agreement in Addis Ababa between the Government of Juba and its armed opposition, non-governmental organizations in the field report that civilians were attacked by unidentified armed elements in the Bentiu area near the northern border of the country.

He refers to the systematic use of sexual violence in the country, where 65% of women and girls have been subjected to sexual violence at least once in their lives.

The writer also refers to successive wars in Sudan since the seventies of the last century.

The analysis concludes by asking whether the handshake and reconciliation between the rival leaders of power in southern Sudan were a genuine commitment to the truce already needed by the country ahead of the presidential battle of 2022 in Juba.