Is the East Mediterranean Gas Forum Israel's bridge to the Gulf?

Mahmoud Siddiq - Cairo

The energy ministers of seven countries announced on Monday the establishment of the "East Mediterranean Gas Forum" to create a regional gas market, rationalize the cost of infrastructure and offer competitive prices. How did that happen? What are its ramifications?

More than a year ago, on December 5, 2017, energy ministers from four countries - Italy, Cyprus, Greece and Israel (non-Arab countries - met) to study an ambitious proposal for a $ 7.4 billion pipeline project across the Mediterranean $, And takes over six years.

But the main obstacle was Turkey, which would not allow a pipeline through Cyprus or the seabed to pass through its exclusive economic zone because of a lack of a solution to divide the disputed island since 1974.

About three months ago, the Egyptian Energy Minister and his Cypriot counterpart signed a government agreement to build an offshore pipeline connecting the offshore Aphrodite gas field with an Egyptian liquefaction plant at a meeting in Nicosia.

European support for the move came quickly, with European Commission representative Charlotte Brunoville confirming the European Union's strong support for the agreement as a strong contribution to diversifying the continent's gas resources.

Opportunity for Israel
The United States saw natural gas cooperation as beneficial to America's allies - who want to challenge the dominance of Russian gas - and that Israel's integration into similar gas deals is far more useful than peace initiatives that take headlines for weeks, perhaps months and ends.

From a purely financial point of view, Noble Energy, the US company that holds the largest share (about 40%) in the Leviatan field, favors gas liquefaction rather than selling it on the local market and joining Egypt's long line of creditors, according to a report by Simon Henderson, Gulf Program and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute.

Henderson believes that Israel's discovery of the Liviatan field, which is about 130 kilometers from the shores of the Egyptian port of Damietta, is estimated at 22 trillion cubic feet, in addition to the Tamar field, which has 11 trillion cubic feet of gas; Gas production in larger quantities.

And remains the best option on the ground is Egypt, assisted by the military communications and intelligence firm between the two countries since the arrival of Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi to power, according to Henderson.

All these data may have been a strong motivation - with other motives - for the seven countries to go in the direction of the launch of the forum announced, but why was chosen Cairo as the headquarters of the Forum?

Central Egypt
In addition to Egypt's geographically distinct location, it has political playing cards that promote its desire to become a regional energy market in the Middle East and enable it to play a central role in the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. The most prominent of these are the agreements of strong relations with Tel Aviv now - Which Israel expresses to the Arab world, especially the Gulf, in the atmosphere of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, analysts consider the most appropriate to achieve the peace dreamed by Israel for seventy years.

Another report by Henderson published by the Washington Institute noted that Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Faleh told reporters in late 2017 that he was interested in replacing Mediterranean gas with fuel for power generation, which Henderson understood was that Israeli gas might someday reach Saudi Arabia through Gas "Made in Egypt".

Egypt also has proven gas reserves that will change the rules of the game in the gas market, according to a report in the National Interest magazine.

The report pointed out that the gas field "Noor", which was discovered off the coast of North Sinai and announced by the Italian company Eni; will raise the Egyptian gas reserves to 4.4 trillion cubic meters of gas, which will put Egypt at the level of large production countries such as Nigeria and Algeria.

Turkish obstacles
According to experts and observers, Turkey is the only obstacle to the Egyptian ambitions and the Forum of the Eastern Mediterranean gas countries, and they saw in the suspension of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on an agreement under which Israel exports 64 billion cubic meters of gas to Egypt that Cairo "scored a target"; Egypt for Turkish ambitions to be a regional center of energy in the region.

Experts say Egypt is more likely than Turkey to play this role, supported by its geographical location and the Suez Canal, as well as the large discoveries of fields filled with natural gas, as opposed to political differences between Turkey and Cyprus and Greece.

But Turkey, according to the experts, still has the potential to be a center for the transfer of energy between Iran and Russia - the giants of gas production in the world - and Iraq, and other countries, whether for consumption or export.

Indeed, the Turks agreed last year with Russia to transfer gas to southern Europe via gas pipelines on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Another paper that Turkey has in order to block or disrupt the forum's ambitions is its ability to prevent Cyprus from exploiting its gas fields. Ankara has repeatedly threatened to use force to prevent ships on its way to explore for gas in the eastern Mediterranean for Greece.

Warnings and threats came out of the highest authority in Turkey, represented by its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who once said "we will not accept attempts to extract natural resources in our country, Cyprus or in the eastern Mediterranean."

Gas Secretariat
An expert on renewable energy, who declined to be named, said it was too early to confirm or predict the impact of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum on the secretariat of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries, which Qatar recently hosted, because the Eastern Mediterranean Forum has not yet been announced. We know the tools or mechanisms of Member States to proceed with the implementation of their declared objectives.