Iran's nuclear program: What Trump wants to achieve - and what comes out

The negotiations were tough, dragged on for years, but in July 2015, the nuclear agreement, the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA), finally sealed in Vienna.

At that time, Iran and the five veto powers in the United Nations Security Council United States, Britain, China Russia and France, and Germany and the EU joined the agreement. The Islamic Republic undertook to renounce the construction and development of nuclear weapons.

Formally, the JCPOA is not an international agreement. It was legally binding when the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2231 - thereby approving the agreement.

What are the key points of the JCPOA?

• Iran subjects its uranium enrichment to a multi-level system of restrictions and controls by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for up to 25 years.
• In the first decade, more than two-thirds of existing uranium enrichment capacity must be decommissioned. The number of installed centrifuges is expected to fall from 19,000 to around 6,000. Uranium can only be enriched to 3.67 percent. An atomic bomb would require 90 percent enriched uranium.
• The amount of already enriched uranium is reduced from more than 10,000 to 300 kilograms for 15 years.
• The uranium is to be enriched in the existing plant Natans. The heavy water reactor Arak is to be rebuilt in such a way that it can not produce a nuclear weapon suitable plutonium. The Fordo enrichment plant will become an atomic research center.
• The UN ban on the import and export of weapons will be extended by five years. Even supplies that could serve Iran's missile program are banned for eight years.
• In return, the West is gradually lifting its economic sanctions. If Iran violates the agreed rules, however, the punitive measures can immediately come into force again.

Why did Donald Trump give up the deal?

Trump was always an opponent of the agreement with Tehran, if only because it was driven by Barack Obama. He repeatedly spoke of the "worst deal ever" that could not stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. There are "definitive proofs" that the US President has not yet presented. Trump also justified the cancellation of the deal on 8 May 2018 with the fact that the Islamic Republic continued to work on the development of ballistic missiles, which could be equipped with nuclear warheads, even after the international agreement.

Tehran's missile program is receiving criticism not only in the US but also in the EU. Iran's regime emphasizes that it violates neither the nuclear agreement nor UN Resolution 2231, which was unanimously adopted in July 2015 in the context of the nuclear deal. It states: "Iran is required not to engage in activities related to ballistic missiles designed to use nuclear weapons, including launches using technology for such ballistic missiles."

Iran claims that this is not a strict ban on missile testing and also denies that the missiles tested could even be equipped with an atomic warhead.

What do the IAEA inspectors say?

The Vienna authorities have repeatedly certified Iran to abide by the arrangements in the JCPOA - even after the United States unilaterally terminated the deal. Since 2015, the IAEA has submitted a total of 14 interim reports - there have always been insignificant complaints. The US government had also dismissed every report of compliance with the agreement until Trump's exit.

What sanctions has Trump imposed?

The first round of new sanctions has been in effect since August 2018. The United States wants Iran to not be able to buy US dollars and stop trading gold and precious metals. The trade in certain metals, raw materials and industrial software should also be prevented. In addition, the import of Iranian food and carpets into the United States is prohibited.

The second round of sanctions came into force in November 2018. The punitive measures are aimed at the Iranian oil industry, by far the most important industry.

A week ago, Washington tightened sanctions again. Since May 2, all countries have had to give up their oil imports from Iran if they do not want to risk US sanctions. The aim is to reduce Iran's oil revenue as much as possible.

How do Germany and the Europeans behave?

The US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, had made it crystal clear on the very day when Trump discontinued the JCPOA, what Washington expected from other countries: "German companies operating in Iran should shut down their businesses immediately," demanded Grenell via Twitter. This statement of the diplomat was brusquely rejected in Berlin. Nevertheless, the sanctions have fulfilled their purpose and severely damaged Germany's trade with Iran.

Although Germany and the two other European JCPOA partners Great Britain and France have always stressed that they want to stick to the agreement even without the US. However, so far they have failed to effectively circumvent sanctions. Because almost all banks in Europe refuse to handle the payment transactions for legal Iran business - fearing that they could be punished from the US.

In February, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom set up the special purpose vehicle Instex, which aims to protect European companies with business relations with Iran from US sanctions. But four months after its founding, the Paris-based company is still not operational.

What does Trump want to achieve?

The US government is pushing for sanctions to dramatically weaken the Iranian economy and significantly reduce government revenues. So Tehran should be made to reduce its support for Shiite militias in the Arab states. In addition, dissatisfaction with the leadership in Tehran is expected to increase in the Iranian people. According to Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton, the disastrous economic situation sooner or later leads to a popular uprising and finally regime change in Iran.

How does Iran react?

Just over a year after Trump's JCPOA retreat, Iranian President Hassan Rohani announced that his country would no longer be able to implement two points in the agreement. Specifically, it concerns the stocks of weakly enriched uranium and heavy water. In the future Iran wants to exceed the upper limits of 300 kilograms or 130 tons. These are two relatively minor injuries to the JCPOA.

Rohani addressed in his speech in the first line to the Europeans. He gave them 60 days to find a way to circumvent US sanctions. Should there be no change in these two months, further steps could follow, including Rohani's own initiative to modernize the Arak heavy water reactor.

Above all, he pointed out that Iran was spending a lot of money to prevent refugees and drugs from Afghanistan from reaching Iran via Europe. His country can no longer pay under the current circumstances. The indirect threat: without the concessions of Germany, France and the UK, a wave of drugs and refugees could soon be approaching Europe.