While India and Pakistan have stopped mutual bombing, the underlying causes of cross-border tensions will not disappear anytime soon. The countries are armed with nuclear weapons and have large conventional forces that have experienced four serious wars since 1947; they harbor enormous cultural and religious hatred. This is a recipe for disaster, yet the confrontation flies far away from the international radar; far less than North Korea, Britain's exit from the EU, trade confrontations between China and the United States, Iran, and even the "yellow jackets" in France.
A possible all-out war
When I was the commander of NATO forces, NATO's most important task was to deal with terrorism in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, our Pakistani partners continued to support many of the extremist elements of the Taliban. They were afraid of India's creeping influence, preferring a country dominated by the Taliban rather than an independent Afghan government that is more Western-oriented.
I have often dealt with the chief of staff of the Pakistani army, General Ashfaq Kayani, who can be said to be stronger than the prime minister. He often came to NATO headquarters in Brussels to brief the Joint Military Command of the alliance on the main threat faced by Pakistan for several years (internal terrorism). However, the Pakistani army's concern has always been India.
The latest crisis began in mid-February when a Pakistani militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, carried out a suicide bombing in Indian Kashmir, killing 40 soldiers. It was the deadliest attack on security forces since the insurgency began decades ago. While the government of Islamabad denied involvement in the bombing, New Delhi believes it was aware of the incident and therefore responded with large air raids on Pakistan. Two Indian fighter jets were shot down and a pilot was captured. There was an unmistakable echo of the conflicts of 1947 and 1965, in which tens of thousands died.
The cease-fire faded
The most fragile cease-fire, two decades ago, is fading; part of this is the result of India's domestic politics: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, elected with a national Hindu agenda, will be reelected in April. Indian behavior is rare, given that the Indian armed forces have not crossed the so-called Line of Control between the two countries since 1971. The former deputy Indian aviation commander Marshall Arjun Subramanian, now a professor at Tufts University, told me, "Strategically, Strong resolve on the part of the government of Moody to raise the level of response in the wake of a confirmed attack of sanctuaries in Pakistan ».
Nuclear anxiety
Of particular concern is the nuclear arsenals that are important to the militants. Each possessing about 150 rockets, although India only possesses a propellant rocket-propelled missile capability, and thus a real nuclear triad (land, air and sea). Pakistan is developing cruise missiles launched from the sea to counter this Indian threat. India has adopted the principle of "no first use", although Pakistan, which has smaller conventional forces and therefore may need a more ambiguous doctrine, has not made a similar commitment. Ironically, both sides want to avoid a nuclear conflict that could prevent an escalation of conventional weapons in recent crises.
During previous conflicts, the United States played a role in mediation. But today Pakistan is more inclined to work with China. India has strong relations with both the United States and Russia, but it is unlikely to become one of them, so as not to hang on to any other "great nation." This fits Trump's tendency to allow states to solve their own problems. Unlike National Security Adviser John Bolton's comment that the United States supports India's right to self-defense, the administration remains on the sidelines. And complicating the picture is that Washington is trying to recruit Pakistan to end the long war in Afghanistan by restraining the Taliban.
Undo escalation
What the United States can do more effectively is to quietly encourage the two sides to back down from the escalation; Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has fired the Indian pilot, who was captured without being hurt. We must also provide our intelligence support to both India and Pakistan so that they can deal with terrorist groups operating from Pakistani territory, including Jaish Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, the deadliest. America can also encourage other mediation by allies and international organizations, especially Saudi Arabia, which have had a major impact on the release of the Indian pilot.
As Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States, Hussein Haqqani, recently pointed out, Pakistan is on the verge of an economic crisis. While the Khan government has tried to ease the crisis, in part, by seeking IMF assistance, internal pressures are increasing.
Do not be wrong. With Pakistan's economic crisis and the upcoming elections in India, South Asia is in a situation where there can be a real error in military and perhaps even nuclear calculations.
James Stavridis: Former NATO commander in Europe
- During previous conflicts, the United States played
Role in mediation. But today Pakistan is more inclined
To work with China. India has strong ties
With both the United States and Russia, however
It is unlikely to turn into either, even
Does not seem to hang on to any other "superpower."