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CSU leader and Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer, Prime Minister Sebastian Kurz and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, at a meeting in Munich on October 12, 2018. REUTERS / Michael Dalder

Long-awaited regional elections are being held on Sunday 14 October in Bavaria. The Christian Social Union (CSU), the only conservative party in this state and a traditional ally of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat Party, must fear a historic defeat, which would have national consequences. For three years, the CSU has been constantly criticizing the Chancellor for starting with her migration policy, creating tensions within the government. Her last big campaign meeting was held on Friday 12 with Angela Merkel as guest of honor ... but Austrian Conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

With our special correspondent in Munich, Pascal Thibaut

" Bavaria must remain Bavaria, our region remains unique, Bavaria must remain stable ," said Markus Söder, Bavarian Minister-President . And only one force can guarantee it, it's the CSU. The CSU is Bavaria: the party hammers its credo, but seduced less and less , with 34% in a final poll. The leaders of the movement hope that many undecided voters will achieve a better score Sunday, October 14.

Competitors take for their rank: on the right, the extreme right with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) , on the left, the Greens, whose proposals are not considered compatible with the program of the CSU.

National politics is considered responsible for the party 's decline, starting with Angela Merkel ' s migration policy, as one current activist believes: " We should have stayed on our positions. The existing rules should have been strictly enforced and not give the impression that we had lost control. "

But the mistakes made by the CSU could allow a questioning for another participant of the meeting: " I think it can be used for a new start. You have to know how to learn from your mistakes . "

A defeat of the CSU could lead to a refocusing of the Bavarian party. Which would have the advantage of reducing tensions within the government in Berlin.