The Republic in motion and the National Gathering are still in the lead for the European elections, with respectively 23% and 22.5% of voting intentions, according to an Ipsos poll, published in Le Monde dated April 25. LREM loses half a point compared to the previous wave of this survey, in March, and the RN gains a half. The Republicans are in third place, far behind, at 13.5%, but benefit from the most notable progression of this wave (+1.5 point).
Following are the lists of Europe Ecology The Greens (8.5%, up 0.5 point) and France Insubordinate (7.5%, -0.5 points). The list supported by the Socialist Party and Public Square totals 6.5% of voting intentions and that of Debout France, 5% (stable scores). Finally, comes Generation, with 4% (stable too).
Electors from other lists are less sure of their choice
The scores of the LREM and RN lists are reinforced by the high level of determination of their electorates, sure of their choice at respectively 73% (+1 point) for the EMN and 81% for the RN (+4 points). Electors from other lists are less sure of their choice: 60% of LR voters are sure of their choice. Only 57% of voters in LFI consider that their choice is stopped (down 5 points), as do 43% of voters in France (-4), 41% of those in PS-Place Publique (+3) , 40% of those in the EELV list (+3) and 32% of the voters in the Generation list. The estimate of participation is the same as in March, ie 42% on average.
2% of the votes if a list "yellow vests" was constituted
These voting intentions do not take into account the participation in the voting of a list supported by certain "yellow vests". If it were formed, such a list would receive 2% of the vote, down 0.5 point. The score of the other lists would be only slightly modified: no change for LREM or LR. The two points attributed to such a list would be taken notably at the RN (-0.5), at DLF (-0.5), LFI (-0.5%). 49% of French people declare themselves "not satisfied" with Emmanuel Macron (against 47% in March), 17% are satisfied (against 19%) and 34% (idem) are neither one nor the other.
Nearly half of the French (48%) consider "desirable but not essential" a referendum after the great gebat, 27% consider it "indispensable" and 27% "not desirable". 43% of French are "close" to "yellow vests", 57% are not.
This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey was conducted for Cevipof, the Fondation Jean Jaurès and Le Monde from 18 to 22 April 2019, with a representative sample of the French population of 8,747 people registered on the electoral rolls, aged 18 years and older.