The Europeans are divided these days, arguing whether Europe is ready to re-recognize the legitimacy of Syrian President Bashar Assad and help him rebuild his country. The EU is trying to appear as a united front to the world on this issue, but there is a wide range of issues that divide the continent against its will. Although Europe is officially united behind the sanctions policy against Syria, individual states have begun to wonder whether the current situation requires compliance with these sanctions. While France, Germany and the United Kingdom want to maintain a firm stance against Assad, others in southern and eastern Europe, especially those with populist governments, want to reduce it. Diplomats from across Europe say the latter group looks at relations with Syria mainly through a refugee crisis perspective. They believe that by admitting that Assad has won the war and helped him rebuild his country, this would accelerate the return of Syrian refugees to their country.
Italy stands out as the most powerful supporter of Assad, opposing sanctions against Syrian entities, at least behind closed doors. A diplomat from southern Europe, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Italy was "reassessing its position." "If you want the refugees to return home, the second wave of refugees, the end of the suffering of the internally displaced and the dealings with Europe - and they are already there - then the Syrian government needs to be dealt with." "The solution is on the table, and the solution is Assad," he said.
Mysterious wording
The EU's current policy of UN Resolution 2254 of December 2015, which calls for a "political transition" in Syria, is deliberately ambiguous, allowing Western countries that oppose Assad to ask him to step down, while Russia, China and others can say It means just agreed political reforms. Now that it is clear that Assad will not leave power, the ambiguity of the resolution is now producing differences within the European Union.
While Italy supports the resolution, it calls for easing the Syrian government, according to the Italian diplomat. Although it did not object to the European Union's imposition of sanctions on 11 Syrian businessmen in January, bringing the total number of individuals who have been sanctioned to 270, it may soon seek to lift the ban on some of them. Once sanctions, which prohibit financial transactions and other transactions with Syria, are lifted, European companies will be able to make proposals for reconstruction projects.
Italy
Italy could veto the annual renewal of sanctions, but doing so alone would put it at risk of isolation in the EU. Experts say there is still the assumption that EU member states are under pressure to commit themselves to working through consensus, even on foreign policy issues. Over time, Italy is likely to secure more supporters of change. Indeed, it is believed that Poland, Austria and Hungary are sympathetic to the idea of re-dealing with the Syrian authorities.
"These countries are driven by factors including internal refugee-related politics and ties with Moscow," said Jean-Pierre Barnes-Dassy, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "It is undeniable that some countries recognize new realities on the ground in Syria and believe that any positive gains from the current situation should be shared with the government in Damascus," he adds. "This issue has not only taken a sharp turn, Competing for what is now possible. "
In August 2018, Poland sent Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Papers to Damascus to meet with the Syrian government. The Syrian news agency SANA praised the visit. Poland had offered to pay the cost of building the homes of 100 Syrian refugee families currently living in Lebanon to create the conditions for their return. His Syrian counterpart, Faisal al-Miqdad, called Poland's position "realistic and rational" and denounced linking aid to "other conditions."
Position of Poland
Poland denies it is working to dismantle EU consensus on reconstruction in Syria. However, this step is a clear indication of the belief that the reconstruction of Syria will help the refugees to return home, not westward - to Europe. A Western European diplomat admits that all 28 EU member states recognize that Assad has essentially won the war, but Germany and France are unwilling to admit it publicly, as that may reduce their expectations of what constitutes a "political transition" from a full democracy Which works to respect human rights, to a system that changes marginally.
"Germany and France fear that their anti-Assad policies in Syria may be weakened by some EU members who want to leave the refugees and think about paying the cost of reconstruction," the diplomat said. "These members think the guidelines are outdated and need to be revised," he said.
Concessions
Europe's diplomacy on Syria is now focused on persuading Russia, which wants the EU to ease its funding constraints and help the cost of Syria's reconstruction, take advantage of its impact on the region, says senior EU diplomat James Moran. Assad to make important political concessions. "What the EU is looking for now, or rather hopes, is that Russia can persuade Assad to become less comprehensive, if not democratic," he concludes. "Before presenting the conditions to Assad, further discussions will be needed with Russians. "
There is a heated debate among EU members about what they consider a credible concession. In the context of the Geneva peace talks established by resolution 2254, the regime and the opposition are supposed to agree to form a joint committee to draft a new constitution. The Germans say that if they do, they see it as a step forward, but so far the first step has not been met, and the two sides have failed to agree on the composition of the commission. In addition, diplomatic sources said that the Germans and the French expect Assad to release thousands of Syrians held illegally, to pardon those he considers "traitors," and to allow the United Nations to monitor the status of returnees. If Assad fulfills these conditions, according to these sources, the EU may consider increasing aid to a higher level of current humanitarian funding of $ 10 billion.
Change the explanation
"We are likely to see more European countries change their interpretation to support human stability and post-conflict situations, to increase levels of assistance in Syria, while not providing technical support for reconstruction in an effort to avoid a complete departure from the EU position," Barnes-Dacey said. Subscriber. This will continue for Berlin and Paris until free and fair elections are held in Syria. Diplomats believe France and Germany will not support lifting sanctions and will not participate in full reconstruction efforts until a credible political process is carried out.
A senior European diplomat who visits Syria often says Assad's only political concession is to give more autonomy to local councils. "Assad will not agree to give defense, education or security portfolios to the opposition in any future government," he said. "But one of the ministers told me they could give more authority to local authorities, and that's the most we can expect." Germany and France would not see this as evidence of genuine participation by the people in power, because they also believe that Baath Party supporters still control local administrations. Nevertheless, Italy would be ready to send development assistance to the more autonomous local councils.
Position is applicable
The question facing Europe now is whether it can crystallize a more viable position, acknowledging that there can be no change in Syria. If not, the gradual collapse of the domestic European position may be inevitable. The cracks are not expected to emerge publicly, as the EU member states hold their third annual conference to support the future of Syria and the region in Brussels, but it is now clear that there is a worldwide uproar calling for a change in policy towards Syria.
• The current EU policy is subject to UN Resolution 2254 of December 2015, which calls for a "political transition" in Syria, but its wording is deliberately ambiguous, allowing Western countries that oppose Assad to ask him to step down, while Russia, China, They say it means just agreed political reforms.