Israeli forces are still determined to continue bombing targets in Syria. At the same time, it is likely that thousands of Russian troops in Syria will be hit by the bombing, which could take part in the fighting if Moscow sees such strikes as a deterrent to its ally Syria. If Israel and Russia engage in combat, does Israel's older brother, the United States, feel obliged to intervene?
Moscow or Tel Aviv do not seem to want such a scenario. As one senior IDF official said, "None of us wants a military confrontation, because that would be harmful to both sides." However, Israel's policy is that "it will do whatever it deems necessary to get the Iranian forces out of Syria." If Russia does not want to, these strikes represent the price of ensuring that Syria does not turn into another Iranian missile base on Israel's border.
Relations between Tel Aviv and Moscow are warmer than during the Cold War. This situation reminds us of the US-Soviet appeasement in the 1970s, and on the surface there seems to be some friendliness and willingness to cooperate, but under these smiles there is caution, suspicion and a conflict of fundamental interests.
"No one in Israel is confused about who the Russians are and who they are aligned with," says an Israeli army official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The Russians are not allies of us. In an euphemism, we have one ally, the United States, the Russians here for very different purposes. They support the Syrian regime, which openly aims to destroy Israel if possible, and they are part of an alliance that includes Iran."
It became clear to what extent Israeli military operations could lead to an accident that could cause tension between the two countries. This was evident during the Israeli raid in September 2018 on the munitions depots in western Syria when Syrian anti-aircraft missiles dropped a Russian surveillance plane The 20-year-old model, by mistake, killed 15 people. Israel has denied Russian accusations that it deliberately used the Russian plane as a cover, but failed to give Moscow enough warning of the raid. However, Russia still blames Israel for this escalation and is preparing to retaliate by supplying Syria with sophisticated S-300 missiles.
However, Israel sees Russia as a deterrent, able to control any Iranian aggression against Israel, and a push factor that can get Iranian troops out of Syria. After a meeting in February between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin to reform relations after the Alushin incident, Israeli officials claimed that Putin had agreed to the withdrawal of foreign troops from Syria. For Moscow, its friendly relations with Israel give it greater influence in the Middle East, even as America may reduce its presence in the region.
The Kremlin, however, condemned the Israeli strikes in Syria as "illegitimate." Syria has been a Russian ally for more than 50 years, and Russia, along with Syria's allies, has saved Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the collapse of his government. At least 36,000 Russian troops have been deployed in Syria since 2015. Although Putin has promised to withdraw Russian troops since 2016, Russia now has more than 5,000 troops in Syria, backed by dozens of planes and helicopters. But the reality is that Russia came to Syria to stay there. The Syrian port of Tartous is Russia's only maritime base in the Mediterranean. In 2016, Moscow and Damascus signed a 49-year agreement allowing Russian nuclear-powered warships to operate there. In addition, Russian aircraft and surface-to-air missiles, including the S-400 long-range air defense system, operate from at least two air bases in western Syria. Israel can coexist with the Russian neighbor, but not with the Iranians.
"The Israeli Air Force, as Netanyahu announced, has attacked Iranian and Hezbollah targets hundreds of times after a devastating attack on Iranian arms depots," said an Israeli army official. "We can make it harder, Near Damascus International Airport in January ».
When asked if Russia was deterring Israeli raids on Syria, an Israeli official replied: "We continue to carry out our plans, and our activities indicate that, despite everything, we enjoy great freedom of movement."
What was interesting, however, was his response in one word, when asked about Israel's willingness to fight for this freedom of action, he replied: "Ready." Which raises the question: Can Israel target Iran in Syria without provoking a clash with Russia? There are mechanisms to resolve the conflict, including a hotline between the Israeli and Russian armies. "We are very strict about informing the Russians about our activities," the Israeli army official said. However, these measures were not sufficient to avoid the fall of that Russian plane.
It is not difficult to imagine the observer a number of deadly scenarios: such as Russian advisers or technicians who died in an Israeli raid on an Iranian or Syrian facility; a smart Israeli bomb misses its target to hit a Russian base, A Russian pilot or an anti-aircraft battery provoked by a close Israeli raid or perhaps Russia felt compelled to support the stature of its Syrian ally and shaky government. It was clear to everyone how the Syrian airspace became inflamed in December 2017, when US F- Passed To warn of two Russian planes attack aircraft Su -25, Khrgueta restricted area in eastern Syria.
On the other hand, Russia will not try to fight Israel in order to harm it. Israeli officials appear not to be concerned about a clash with Russian troops, but are more interested in providing advanced weapons, such as anti-aircraft missiles, to Israel's enemies.
• The relationship between Tel Aviv and Moscow recalls the "Soviet-American" appeasement in the 1970s, and on the surface there seems to be some friendliness and willingness to cooperate, but under these smiles there is caution, suspicion and conflict of interest.