"There is a very high probability that the current Arab counter-revolution will trigger further revolutions later," according to a Carnegie Endowment for the Middle East study.
The editors of the Diwan blog and the editor of the Carnegie Middle East Center Michael Young said that the Arab counterrevolutionary forces are converging on the principle of eliminating the remaining momentum of opposition in the region.
"There is a more repressive atmosphere in many Arab countries, where the problems that led to the 2011 uprisings have not yet been solved. The lesson adopted by the Arab regimes is that they have not practiced enough violence to strangle their societies. "Bashar al-Asad's use of mass massacres may become a model for future leaders who hold their positions at whatever cost."
The writer refers to what he called the return of the Syrian regime to the "embrace of the Arab", citing the return of the UAE and Bahrain to open their embassies in Damascus, a decision that "can be assumed - without risk - that their decision was approved by Riyadh," pointing to a report that the head of the National Security Office Syrian Ali Mamlouk visited the Kingdom a few days ago.
"The recent visit by Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to Damascus has given further indication that Assad is making his way back to the Arab fold, even if Bashir, who has been convicted by the International Criminal Court of war crimes, provides a full picture of what Syria's return to the embrace Arabi".
Israel is present
Michael Young believes that the Arab effort to get closer to the Syrian regime is a repeat of the behavior demonstrated years ago when Arab states used the rewards to try to distance Syria from Tehran. This would allow Bashar al-Assad to get concessions again - including Arab funding for Syria's reconstruction and perhaps renewed Syrian influence In Lebanon - even if he did not do much to satisfy Arab desires. "
"Assad's ability to deceive the Arab states will most likely lead to the survival of the Iranian role in Syria. The Arab countries may make efforts to strengthen the Russian presence in Syria in order to establish a counterweight to the Iranian presence, but the Russians - like Assad - are not ready to be a tool used by the Arab regimes against Iran. "
"In an area that is already unable to meet the needs of its everyday citizens, it is hard to imagine a result other than ruin. Autocracy coupled with widespread economic decline and the 2011 protests will not bring peace and tranquility. Its main role is to protect the regimes in most of the Gulf countries from Iran - serious problems at the level of legitimacy, since the survival of these systems will become linked to the sacrifices of the Palestinians. "
The writer concludes that "at the moment, the parties in this system to maintain their ranks in order to maintain authoritarian rule, but its mechanisms suffer from the decay, so expect new upheavals, the balance of tyrants often means a total loss of balance.