On March 8, the US State Department reported that Washington was counting on the complete denuclearization of the DPRK by 2021, when Donald Trump’s first presidential term would end.

"We believe that this task can still be completed by the end of the first term of the president, and we are working hard on this together with representatives of the North Korean side," a senior diplomat said during the briefing.

As the State Department stressed, denuclearization in the United States means “dismantling all key nuclear fuel cycle facilities, removing all stocks of fissile materials and nuclear warheads, removing or destroying all intercontinental ballistic missiles, and finalizing the development of other types of weapons of mass destruction, as well as going ways to reorient the economy to civilian needs in order to establish this course as permanent for the country. ”

Previously, about 2021 mentioned US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. September 19 last year, he stated that the start of the work of the US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Bigan marks the beginning of negotiations on the path to changing the nature of relations between the United States and the DPRK based on the process of its rapid denuclearization, which, according to the promise of Chairman Kim, the end to January 2021. ”

All at once

As emphasized in the State Department, to achieve this goal, Washington does not intend to adhere to the “step-by-step approach” - concessions in exchange for concessions - in relations with the DPRK, since such a policy has proven itself poorly in the past.

“In our administration, no one advocates a phased approach,” said a representative of the diplomatic department. “It is expected that complete denuclearization will be carried out without fail, considered as a precondition for all other actions.”

Meanwhile, Russia was in favor of a step-by-step approach. Thus, on the eve of the Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un summit in Hanoi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the success of the negotiation process can only be a "phased approach that includes positive US actions in response to the positive actions of the DPRK."

Later, commenting on the meeting of the American and North Korean leaders, which ended without signing an agreement, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov noted that the reason for the unsuccessful completion of the summit was the fact that "the practice of small mutual steps towards each other still does not work."

Speaking about restrictive measures, the representative of the US State Department noted that Washington is not going to lift the sanctions against the DPRK and even remove the joint projects of Pyongyang and Seoul from their actions. Moreover, he stressed that "if the president so decides, the sanctions will be strengthened."

Georgy Tolorai, an expert on the DPRK, head of the Russian Strategy for Asia Strategy at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT that the position of the American side was toughened compared to what it was before the Hanoi summit.

On the eve of his second meeting with Kim Jong-un, held February 27-28, Trump said he was not going to "rush anyone" in denuclearization. At the same time, immediately after the end of the summit, he stressed that he was not considering the prospect of increasing sanctions pressure.

But already on March 6, readiness to tighten restrictive measures was announced by presidential adviser on national security issues, John Bolton. He also noted that it was precisely the sanctions that forced North Korea to sit at the negotiating table, so they will be canceled only after the complete denuclearization of the country.

According to Tolorai, Russia has repeatedly explained that such an approach would lead to a major foreign policy failure, but the US president is focused on achieving an instant result.

  • Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Hanoi
  • Reuters
  • © Leah Millis

“America wants to get everything at once, as Trump needs foreign policy success,” the expert emphasized. - But the North Koreans will not go to such denuclearization. And then the Americans will only blame the failure of their own diplomacy on the DPRK. "

In turn, Yevgeny Kim, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT that North Korea would not risk and abandon nuclear weapons as a tool to defend their country if the United States continues the “one goal game”.

"The DPRK will agree to the gradual destruction of its missile potential only in exchange for concessions from the United States," the expert added.

Alarming messages

A spokesman for the US Department of State reported on March 8 that an increase in activity was observed in Washington at the Sohe test-missile test site in North Korea, but they are not yet ready to draw any conclusions from this.

At the same time, the diplomat stressed that Kim Jong-un at the US-North Korean summit in Hanoi promised Trump to dismantle this landfill.

The office noted that Sohe, which in the DPRK is used to launch rockets into space, is not considered a significant object in Washington. North Korea carried out the latest launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles from mobile platforms, not from this site.

Earlier, several US expert centers reported that the DPRK had stopped the alleged dismantling of the Sohe landfill. Commenting on this information, Trump stressed on March 7 that "he would be very disappointed if this happens."

On the same day, the South Korean National Intelligence Service announced that the DPRK continues to use uranium enrichment facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear research complex.

Earlier it was reported that Kim Jong-un offered Trump to dismantle this center in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions against the DPRK. But, the US president rejected this idea, demanding the liquidation of a number of other objects.

  • Joint exercises of the United States and the DPRK
  • Reuters
  • © Kim Hong-Ji

At the same time, Washington announced its refusal to carry out Key Resolve large-scale maneuvers with Seoul, as well as Fox Eagle planned for spring. However, instead of them, on March 4, the United States and the Republic of Korea began joint Tonmen military headquarters exercises. The DPRK on March 7 called the resumption of US-South Korean maneuvers a gross violation of the agreements reached earlier in the negotiations with Washington.

As Yevgeny Kim emphasized, the United States has really drastically reduced the scale of joint exercises with Seoul. However, the American and South Korean military are working on joint actions in the framework of the previous operational plans that provide for the possibility of a strike on the DPRK. These actions continue to cause outrage in Pyongyang.

"Empty words"

According to Tolorai, despite mutual accusations, Washington and Pyongyang de facto adhere to the principle of "double freezing" put forward earlier by Moscow and Beijing - the DPRK's refusal of nuclear and rocket tests in exchange for reducing the intensity of the US-South Korean exercises near the North Korean borders.

However, the United States is sending information to the world media that North Korea is not in compliance with its obligations, and this is a negative signal.

“Information was also thrown in that the North Koreans are continuing to study uranium in their territories, although they did not promise to stop research,” the expert says.

According to him, setting up a world community against North Korea has nothing to do with the real steps of Pyongyang. In turn, the American threat to strengthen the sanctions is unfounded and poorly implemented, notes Toloraya.

  • UN Security Council
  • Reuters
  • © Carlo Allegri

According to him, there is no reason for the UN Security Council to take new restrictive measures against the DPRK. Moreover, the existing sanctions are so extensive that it is difficult to think of something else.

Therefore, the expert emphasizes that the tightening of rhetoric regarding the DPRK by the United States and reminders of the need for complete denuclearization are aimed at solving the same task - to force the DPRK to make more concessions. But this approach most likely will not work.

“Such a tougher position will not lead to success. Most likely, it will result in a new arms race and, conversely, to the growth of nuclear weapons by the DPRK, ”added Toloraya.

Eugene Kim holds a similar point of view. The expert noted that with intimidation and threats, the United States is only forcing Pyongyang to strengthen its nuclear shield. So, back in 1994, Washington and Pyongyang signed a framework agreement, under the terms of which North Korea promised not to create facilities for the production of nuclear weapons, and also to take out enriched uranium from the country. The United States, for its part, committed to supplying fuel to the DPRK, as well as to assist in the construction of a nuclear power plant.

But after coming to power of the Republican administration of George W. Bush-Junior, Washington abandoned this plan. The main initiator of this step was none other than Bolton, who continued the same line under the current Republican president.

"North Korea has canceled rocket and nuclear tests, but if the United States does not meet them, they will be able to resume them," the political scientist warns.