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United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Not just the UK, the entire European Union is at a crossroads in the Brexit issue these days. The upcoming decision to extend the Article 50 process will shape the country's relationship with its European partners over many years. Not least on SPIEGEL ONLINE is warned to give Britain a longer delay for a decision and thus to indirectly support a possible stay in the EU through a second referendum. This question could be particularly relevant if there is a majority in the British Parliament for the Kyle / Wilson Plan, which envisages ratifying the agreement, but makes its entry into force dependent on a referendum with the option of remaining in the EU.
Better an end with horror?
In the short term, the commentators fear, Britain's participation in the European elections could boost populist and anti-European parties, which are constantly sensing the establishment's conspiracies against the will of the people. They also fear that if they remain, the country will become an even more difficult partner that could block upcoming decisions such as deepening the common security and defense policy or budget issues.
Another factor is frustration in view of the inability of the British Parliament to make a clear decision on the Brexit issue. The British government, and in particular the conservative Europhobe wing, has caused uncertainty and cost to the rest of Europe, squashing almost every trust. In addition, they have diverted work to solving other important EU issues. Should the British first clarify their relationship with Europe and eventually eventually apply again - so the tenor of skeptical comments.
These fears and feelings are understandable. However, they are covered for several reasons. They also fail to appreciate the positive signals that the whereabouts of such an important Member State could send both internally and externally.
Upswing of British pro-Europeans
On the island, there is currently a historically unique mobilization of pro-European forces. The peculiarity of Great Britain compared to other countries was that the European question was a victim of "issue capture" for many years: a vociferous minority of declared opponents of the EU could occupy the issue in the public perception, because there was no counter mobilization of the less motivated Majority gave. Some of the elites, supported by the highest-circulation English newspapers such as the Daily Mail and the Sun, saw the EU as an unbearable restriction of English greatness and for decades spread caricatures and myths about a Europe under the yoke of undemocratic bureaucrats. This dominant narrative largely explains the half-heartedness of EU advocates in 2016 and the narrowing of the "remain" arguments to a bloodless weighing of the economic cost of an exit.
This narrowing of the discourse has broken. In October last year, an estimated 700,000 people went on the streets waving EU and UK flags. It was the largest demonstration in the country since the Iraq war. Hundreds of thousands are expected next Saturday. Opinion surveys by various institutions show a slow turnaround, so that those who regard the June 2016 result as a "mistake" are now in the majority with a lead of 8 to 10 percent. "Remain" leads in surveys quite consistently before "Leave", and if the interviewees between "May's deal" and "remain" must decide, so without a "no deal" option, the lead with 10-15 percentage points is even clearer ,
This is less due to a change of opinion among the former Leave voters than to a greater mobilization of those who did not vote in 2016. In addition, demographic change contributes to structurally strengthening the pro-European electorate, with around 70 percent of the younger voters voting for EU membership. In the short term, it can be expected that many Leave voters would not participate in a second vote out of disappointment if "no deal" is not available.
Great Britain has enough problems to solve
There is growing recognition in the country that the Brexit obsession stands in the way of a solution to the country's underlying problems:
- the majority voting system, by which in the meantime popular new parties such as UKIP or the Greens receive only two seats in parliament despite five million votes (2015);
- the unexplained identity and representation of England in relation to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland;
- the neglect of the English north and rural areas compared to London and other major cities;
- the cuts in state benefits after the financial crisis and
- the failed education, labor market and migration policies.
Most citizens are fed up with Brexit in the news and consider the EU less important than other issues. This means that a party that makes "Clean or Full Brexit" again its main mission and identity should suffer in the elections. The Conservatives were in a referendum of a ordeal, especially in the case of the election of a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson to the party leader dozens of MPs would leave the game and join about the new pro-European "Independent Group". The credibility of many prominent Brexit advocates is already severely damaged by internal conflicts, lapses and shifts in opinion.
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Is that why there is a minimal risk that an openly destructive, Eurosceptic British government will remain in the EU? No, especially as some Brexiteers, if they stay, are considering new alliances with populist-led countries like Hungary and Italy, and they are reveling in revenge fantasies. It is much more likely, however, that the Eurosceptic movement on the island is shrinking and, at least in the medium term, no party can win the absolute majority with a Brexit promise. Labor, in particular, will have to explain how it intends to go about reforming the EU and with whom it intends to form new alliances. Chances are that Britain's role in the EU would change from a brakeman to a player.
Strong together against Russia and China
In these circumstances, the whereabouts of a fundamentally liberal and politically liberal country, a net contributor to the EU budget and a global political heavyweight would be a gain for the EU and also for Germany. If Britain stayed in the EU, that would be a clear sign that populist forces can not live up to their promises. Preventing Brexit would prove the success of a common European negotiating line that is ready and able to defend the interests of all its members, including smaller countries such as Ireland. To remain in the UK would strengthen the EU's ability to "divide and conquer" Russia, and increasingly China, with its "new Silk Road Initiative" and to reduce distrust among Eastern European countries vis-à-vis Germany and France. It would also be a defeat for the worldview of the Trump administration, which identifies with Brexit.
Incidentally, even unconditional integration advocates would have been well advised to listen now and then to the skeptical voices of the island. If the UK had voiced its concerns over monetary union from a common good, rather than self-interest, some of the mistakes in construction or crisis management in recent years would have been avoided.
An "accidental no deal" Brexit, because Parliament can not decide on time and the EU does not even offer a short extension, would not only be a disaster for the economy, but also for many EU citizens in the UK and British in Europe. This path could have an unforeseen momentum that threatens EU-Kingdom relations in the core. There would be a greater polarization in the country itself as the EU continues to insist on paying the outstanding bills and the Irish backstop. It could be expected that British rhetoric would be exacerbated by the EU's increasing economic pressure to force the country back to the negotiating table and assert its interests.
A complete humiliation of the country
While so far only a minority in the country believe that the EU is pursuing a punitive strategy, a "no-deal" scenario could lead to a Wagenburg effect. It would be much harder for pro-European forces to argue that the negative consequences of Brexit are ultimately due to the government and parliament. In the end, there is either a complete humiliation of the country that would promote stabbing legends, or the danger of a deep rift between an English nationalist-led government and its EU partners, likely followed by new independence efforts in Scotland and renewed conflict in Northern Ireland.
At this crossroads Europe should keep its foresight, not be guided by the frustrations of recent months, or overvalue the legal and organizational complications of the European elections. There is no need for new substantive concessions to the British Government or cherry picking in the opposition. All it needs is a willingness to give Britain room to deal with its political crisis. Europe and Germany will continue to rely on good relations with the island.