Bouteflika retreat in Algeria: The last trick of the old man

Little time? At the end of the text there is a summary.

"Bouteflika's last trick," headlines the independent Algerian daily El Watan this Tuesday, arguably reasserting the opinion of many compatriots: "He annulled the presidential election but remains in power."

La une du quotidien algérien El Watan demain mardi 12 mars 2019. pic.twitter.com/A2HNhCjraK

On Monday evening, Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced in a written statement his renunciation of a fifth term at the head of the Algerian state. At the same time, he announced that the presidential election scheduled for April 18 would be postponed indefinitely.

Instead, a national conference will be convened, headed by an "independent, undisputed and experienced national personality". This conference will prepare the draft of a new constitution by the end of the year, to be voted upon by the people in a referendum. Only then should new presidential elections take place, in which Bouteflika does not compete anymore.

The regime is playing for time

If this plan should be implemented, the 82-year-old would still govern until next year. The legal basis for this is completely unclear, according to the Constitution ends Bouteflika's current fourth term on 26 April.

The President's statement makes it clear that the regime wants to gain time and maintain complete control of events in Algeria. The National Conference, which will be instrumental in drawing up the new constitution on what the Algerian political system will look like in the future, will not be an elected body. Although Bouteflika's statement is that the conference should be "representative of Algerian society and its currents" - ultimately the elite in Algiers decides on the composition of the assembly.

REUTERS

Lakhdar Brahimi (2014)

Presumably, former Foreign Minister and longtime UN diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi will chair the conference. The 85-year-old met with Bouteflika on Monday evening, after announcing his relinquishment of his fifth term. "He told me about some important decisions he will make," Brahimi said after the conversation. Previously, Bouteflika had also received the resigned Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, his designated successor Nouredinne Bedoui and Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah.

A sign of life from Bouteflika

The state television broadcast short shots of the meetings. It was the first sign of life of the seriously ill president for months. Bouteflika himself was not audible, but seemed able to follow the words of his interlocutors. He had only returned from a several-week hospital stay in Geneva on Sunday.

AFP PHOTO / HO / CANAL ALGERIE

Abdelaziz Bouteflika (TV recording, aired on Monday night)

The prospect of continuing to indefinitely continue driving thousands of Algerians to the streets. In the capital city of Algiers students gathered on Tuesday, while workers elsewhere went on strike. "This is not a football game No to the extension," was among other things to read on posters.

By Monday, Bouteflika's opponents had demonstrated under the slogan "No to a fifth term". Now they are flocking behind the slogans "No to an extension of the fourth term" and "Hau down is called down!". For Friday, the protest movement calls for new nationwide rallies.

AFP

Demonstrating students in Algiers

The regime insists that at least part of the demonstrators are content with the recent concessions and that the protests will lose momentum in the coming weeks. And one hopes that the opposition will not manage to gather behind a leader.

Will the Algerians succeed, whereupon the Egyptians failed?

In fact, such a personality is currently not in sight: Although the eccentric self-made millionaire Rachid Nekkaz has many followers in the social networks and supporters under the football ultrasounds - but that does not make any potential statesman. His public relations campaign this weekend, when he tried to get to the Bouteflika hospital in Geneva and was arrested by the Swiss police, has only confirmed those who see a political clown in the Franco-Algerian.

AFP

Rachid Nekkaz (on Sunday in Paris)

The revolution in Egypt in 2011 ultimately failed decisively because the protest movement could not agree on a joint presidential candidate after the overthrow of the head of state Husni Mubarak. This first brought Muslim Brother Mohammed Mursi to power, ultimately paving the way for the military in Cairo to be more powerful today than ever before.

It would be a scenario entirely to the taste of the army in Algiers.

In summary, the regime in Algeria is trying to appease the protest movement. Head of State Abdelaziz Bouteflika has renounced his fifth term of office and announces a political process leading to a new constitution and new elections. First, there is no timetable, secondly, it is unclear who gets a say in the process. Therefore, it is unlikely that the anti-state demonstrations will end so quickly.