United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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In six weeks Britain wants to leave the European Community. But the UK Parliament has refused to approve the Brexit deal, which Prime Minister Theresa May has laboriously negotiated with the EU. The head of government would like to renegotiate, but the EU refuses. The danger of a disorderly exit is getting bigger.
In London, this Thursday (6 pm CET), Parliament is voting on how to move forward. It is already the second vote since the defeat for May's Brexit Agreement in mid-January.
What opportunities May has now, where it still hangs and how the EU reacts - the overview.
Intermediate step before the showdown
All attempts by Mays to persuade the EU to make changes to the exit agreement have failed. The Prime Minister is nonetheless stuck with her line, regularly taking déjà vu moments in the British parliament. It was not until Tuesday that she echoed a prayer that she would try to change the EU. But she does not even think about changing her attitude.
Unlike the first vote in January, the amendments tabled by the Members of Parliament to the agreement are unlikely to be successful.
At that time, parliamentarians had called for renegotiation of the Treaty on the EU exit. Even a Brexit without agreement they refused. The vote, however, has no binding effect.
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Jeremy Corbyn
The fact that the vote today is rather less important is also clear from the fact that May has already announced a third round of voting for the 27th of February. She wants to spend more time for the renegotiations with the European Union. Britain wants to leave the community of states on March 29th.
Perennial Backstop
The biggest stumbling block for many MPs is the so-called Northern Ireland Backstop. This emergency mechanism would be used should London and Brussels fail to negotiate future relations and find a solution to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and British-administered Northern Ireland. Under this backstop, the whole of Britain would then remain in a customs union with the EU until a solution is found.
Especially the hardliners in May's own party sense danger. Brexit champion and ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson recently said Britain could become a "colony of the EU".
The hardliners ask for a time limit of the backstop, an alternative solution or the cancellation of this contract point. However, the government in Dublin is holding on to it vehemently. And the EU is completely on Ireland's side on this issue (read more about Backstop here).
May's temporary play
The closer the resignation date, the more rumors are circulating: a cross-party group of MPs postponed an attempt to wrest control of the Brexit process from the government. The plan envisages forcing May to postpone Brexit should it not be successful with its withdrawal agreement by the middle of next month.
If Parliament again rejects the government's proposal for a resolution, Mays ability to ultimately win a majority for its Brexit agreement would be further called into question.
Critics like Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn accuse May in any case with time with what he considers to be hopeless renegotiations time. At the end of March, she wanted to put Parliament before a "doze-or-die" vote on her slightly changed Brexit agreement, she suspects.
EU Council President Donald Tusk called for new proposals from Britain on Wednesday evening. Brussels is still waiting for "concrete and realistic" ideas from London, Tusk said after a meeting with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.
Tusk had been disappointed after visiting May in Brussels last week, disappointed that the British had presented no new solutions.
Graphic for Brexit poker