Executive decree on the withdrawal of the US military from Syria has already been signed. This information was confirmed on December 24 to the Russian TASS agency in the US defense department, refusing to provide details. On the eve of the signing of the document, the current head of the Pentagon, James Mattis, told CNN, citing his sources in the United States Department of Defense.

Recall that the decision of Donald Trump to complete a military operation in the SAR became known on December 19 from a statement by the press secretary of the White House, Sarah Sanders.

"We have begun to return to US troops, moving on to the next stage of this campaign," the statement said.

Trump himself on the same day announced on Twitter about the complete defeat of the "Islamic state" in Syrian territory. "We won the IG * in Syria," - wrote the US president.

A few days before that, US-backed Arab-Kurdish detachments from the Syrian Democratic Forces beat out IS militants from the city of Hadjin in Deir ez-Zor province. It was the last major settlement held by the "Islamic State" *. However, scattered terrorist groups continue to hide in the territory of the SAR.

  • James mattis
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The Pentagon reacted with great doubt to the optimistic statements of the head of state. Because of disagreement with the position of trump about his imminent resignation announced the Minister of Defense James Mattis and US special representative to combat the IG Brett McGurk.

However, the American president does not intend to reconsider his decision to withdraw the US military contingent from a Middle Eastern country. About this December 24, said the acting head of the White House office, Mick Mulvaney, in an interview with ABC. According to him, this step is the result of a long Donald Trump policy. “You see the end result of two years of work,” the official said.

Speaking a day earlier on Fox News, Mulvaney said that if someone doesn’t like Trump’s decision, it’s “rather their problem.”

Answering the question whether US citizens have any idea of ​​what consequences the president’s step will have for the Syrian opposition and Kurds, Mulvaney explained that “ordinary Americans” do not know this, but delegated the right to make such decisions to the elected president.

“He has an accurate idea of ​​the consequences you have listed, and only he has the right to make a final decision,” said Mick Malvaney.

Ankara's risky game

Speaking about the consequences of the withdrawal of the American contingent, first of all it is necessary to pay attention to the difficult situation of the Kurdish detachments, who are facing the fight against the Turkish army. Previously, Ankara refrained from attacking the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachments (YPG) in areas where they acted in coordination with the US military. After the withdrawal of the US Armed Forces, the Kurdish-Turkish conflict could flare up with a vengeance.

As it became known on the eve of the Turkish DHA agency, Turkey has already begun to tighten military equipment and special forces units in the border province of Kilis, part of the armored vehicles was transferred to Syrian territory, to areas that were under the control of the Turkish military following the 2016 Euphrates Shield operation.

The fact that Ankara is preparing to launch an attack on the position of YPG in Syria, Turkish President Recep Erdogan reported back in mid-December.

“The US has promised us that they will withdraw the terrorist group from Manbij, but have not yet been taken out. Then we openly told them that if you do not do this, we will enter Manbij and manage ourselves, ”said Erdogan, speaking at a conference of representatives of the highest courts of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul.

Recall that the Syrian Manbij, in 2016, came under the control of Kurdish troops, who drove out of the city of IG. The expansion of Kurdish-controlled territories in the immediate vicinity of the Turkish border seriously worried Ankara, which considers the YPG a terrorist organization.

The Turkish authorities repeatedly appealed to Washington to stop supporting the Kurds, but to no avail - until recently it was the Kurdish militia that was viewed by the American command as the main military support in the SAR. Attempts by the Turkish Armed Forces to take Manbij, in fact, were blocked by the United States, but this year the parties were able to agree on the withdrawal of YPG forces from this area, and in early November the Turkish and American military began to jointly patrol the city.

Now the Turkish side plans to launch an offensive east of the Euphrates River. As Recep Erdogan said on December 14, Ankara is “determined to restore rest” in these areas. Recall, to the east of the Euphrates River is the large Syrian city of Rakka. After the liberation of the city from the Islamic State militants, the situation in the region remains tense, as Kurdish troops controlling Raqqah conflict with the local Arab population.

However, now Turkey has to struggle not only with the Kurdish militia, but also with the remnants of the IG. It is precisely in the expectation that the Turkish side will continue the fight against terrorists, Donald Trump decided to withdraw the US armed forces from the UAR, said Recep Tayyip Erdogan on December 21.

“In the course of our conversation with Trump, he asked: do you cleanse IG of Syria?” I said, yes, we will clear, and then the withdrawal of troops began. Let it happen late, but it finally happened, ”the politician said.

The American leader himself said that “local countries, including Turkey” will take care of the remains of the IG.

As an assistant professor at the Institute of Social Sciences RANEPA, orientalist Sergey Demidenko, explained in an interview with RT, the Kurdish opposition controls almost half of the territory of the SAR, and Turkey must understand that this is not a counter-terrorist operation, but a full-scale war.

“Ankara is playing a very risky game and stands on the brink of war, in which it is very easy to get bogged down, as in any ethno-confessional conflict. Undoubtedly, the Kurds will try to find some kind of external support, but you need to understand that they are a self-sufficient force and will defend their positions, ”the expert emphasized.

Losing US support, the Syrian Kurds tried to find a new ally in France. Their delegation visited Paris, but, as Riyad Daraar, one of the leaders of the Syrian Democratic Council, told reporters, the French side has not given any guarantees to the Kurdish leadership.

The Kurds are seeking dialogue with official Damascus. This was announced on December 21 by the representative of the Syrian Kurds in Moscow, Rshad Bienaf. In an interview with RIA Novosti, he announced the readiness of the Kurdish side to resume negotiations with the Syrian authorities, noting that Russia could take on the role of a mediator.

As stated by Bienaf, the Kurds "from the very beginning" did not claim autonomy, but only wanted to achieve the democratization of the SAR and the amendment of the constitution.

  • Kurdish YPG Militia Girls
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“This is our clear position, we are constantly talking about it, including the Russian colleagues at our meetings. We present our plans and intentions about creating a democratic state, about dialogue with official Damascus, ”said Bienaf.

Recall that in 2014 the Syrian Kurds and their allies declared autonomy Syrian Kurdistan (or Rozhava), which included three cantons: Afrin, Kobani and Jazeera. But the threat of the onset of the regular Turkish army today inclines the Kurds to compromise with Damascus.

According to Demidenko, despite all the contradictions with the Kurds, Damascus cannot support the Turkish operation - this would mean the beginning of a new round of large-scale civil conflict in Syria instead of peace.

“The war against radical Islamists and the opposition will turn into a war against the Kurds, who enjoy US support. The only way out of this situation is negotiations that Moscow can arrange. It is necessary to hold free elections in the country in which the Kurds could take part. Turkey should try to dissuade from the start of hostilities. It is necessary to create conditions for peace negotiations, a platform for dialogue between the parties, and to work with Damascus and with the Kurds. Therefore, the role of Russia in Syria may increase even more against the background of the departure of the Americans, ”the expert believes.

"The voltage will rise"

The contradictions between the Kurds and Turkey are not the only confrontational line that could develop in the SAR after the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

Donald Trump's decision raised concerns in Tel Aviv. As Israeli Justice Minister Aelet Shaked stated, in particular, the American leadership’s move would not help Israel, but would only strengthen the position of the Turkish leader and allow Iran to increase arms supplies to the Lebanese Hezbollah.

However, the Israeli side is full of readiness to independently stand up for their interests. The head of the Israeli General Staff, Gadi Ayzenkot, urged not to attach too much importance to the departure of the American military from Syria, since the Jewish state had been engaged in ensuring its own security for decades.

Following Turkey, the Israeli side also does not exclude the possibility of expanding military activity in Syrian territory. This was announced on the eve of the Prime Minister of the Jewish state Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a meeting of the Cabinet.

“The decision to withdraw two thousand American soldiers from Syria will not change our consistent policy: we will continue to act against Iran’s attempts to create a military springboard in Syria and, if necessary, even expand our actions there,” the politician emphasized.

In Tehran, by contrast, welcomed the decision of the American administration. As the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Bahram Kasemi, emphasized in his comments, the appearance of American forces in the region was a mistake and one of the main causes of instability.

Now Tehran will take advantage of the departure of the States and will try to increase its presence in the region, experts say. In their opinion, Tel-Aviv will simultaneously increase its efforts, but it will not be possible to achieve a large-scale war.

“The sides will continue confrontation, trying to build strength. For Tel Aviv, the main thing is that Hezbollah does not increase, and now it can increase significantly. Therefore, although there will not be a large-scale war, the tension will still grow, ”explained Demidenko.

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Israel and Iran will refrain from any kind of active actions against each other, said Konstantin Truevtsev, senior researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS.

“The Iranians really do not want to give serious reasons to the Israeli side and in most cases simply frighten Tel Aviv. Iran now has enough other worries, and the Iranian danger for Israel is greatly exaggerated, since the Israelis are putting pressure on this topic, ”the expert stressed.

According to Truevtsev, the withdrawal of the American military from the SAR will be a good chance for Damascus to resolve the situation.

“Turkey is threatening to launch a frontal attack, but there is no certainty that it will succeed. If the Syrian government manages to take advantage of this situation, it will be able to increase the territory controlled by Damascus to 80-90%, ”he said.

According to him, Syria is faced with the task of mastering energy facilities: hydropower plants, gas and oil fields.

“And together with the allies, do away with the remnants of the IG in the Deir-ez-Zor area and eliminate the militant activity points around the perimeter of Idlib province. If all this succeeds in doing this, the conflict can be considered ended, ”the expert concluded.

* “Islamic State” (IG) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.