89% believe that the Arab economies will not improve in 2019

Mohammed Afzaz

A majority of respondents believe that the Arab economies will not improve in 2019. They linked this to the absence of economic vision, the resort to external borrowing, the imposition of more taxes, the spread of corruption, the war and crises in the region, as well as weakness creativity.

A poll of 3,000 people took place on January 14-20, with 89% expressing their conviction that Arab economies will not improve this year, while only 11% think they will improve.

One of the participants is convinced that the economies of the Arab countries are not improving because "those who walk their countries do not have a clear economic vision. All they know about the economy is imposing more taxes, raising subsidies on raw materials, and resorting to the International Monetary Fund."

"I think that the majority of Arab countries will not have real economic growth because they resort to external borrowing. They can not provide an appropriate investment environment to attract foreign direct investment. Most of them are unable to provide natural sources of production, Economic dependency ".

War and corruption
"The war in Yemen is a blow to the economy of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen, and certainly Qatar is affected by the blockade despite its good economic choices, and the rest of the countries have been deteriorating for a long time," he said.

"Obviously, you are talking about the oil countries, and if that is the case, there is the possibility of increasing oil prices, but as the popular saying goes: what you eat alnaz can be seen by alkasab or tanner.

One of them attributed his position to the fact that Arab governments are "dominated by corruption" and "their dependence on a fragile economy".

"The same leaders, the same plans and the same decisions are certain there will be no change," another pollster says. "We import and do not make ... we neglect or invent", while a third believes that the recession will affect all economies of the Arab world.

Expert opinion
Not far from how citizens feel in the Arab region, experts polled by Al Jazeera Net believe that Arab economies are weak and will experience stagnation or modest growth at best.

"The economies of the Arab countries are not a general and unified situation. There are fundamental differences between them, but overall there will be modest growth," says financial analyst Nidal Khouli.

"The conditions in the Arab world suggest that conditions will not change much at best, either insufficient growth or stagnation," he said. "Unless the war in Yemen and Syria ends, things change in Libya.

He notes that despite the adoption of the Gulf countries "conservative budgets based on oil price fluctuations, growth will be within 1-3%, and this is also insufficient."

Khouli points out that the Gulf crisis will continue to put pressure on Gulf economies.

Gulf economies will grow at a slightly slower pace than previously expected, including Saudi Arabia, whose GDP will grow only 2.1 percent this year, while its budget deficit is expected to increase, according to a quarterly economic survey by economists.

The Reuters poll to 2020 also delayed the date they expect the UAE to return to a budget surplus for the first time since it started registering a deficit in 2015.

What about Egypt and other countries?
In Egypt, Khouli said, the situation will remain the same as a "state of fire" in the economy, while in Lebanon the debt crisis will continue to pressure the country's economy over the next two years.

Egypt's funding needs in the 2018-2019 budget are about 40 billion dollars, while the country's external debt is 92.6 billion.

Lebanon is under a debt burden of more than 80 billion dollars, representing more than 150% of GDP.

For his part, economic adviser to a number of financial and economic institutions, Abdel Rahim Al-Hor that the economic outlook is based on the current economic reality, a reality full of challenges.

The economies of the Arab countries, apart from being structurally weak, do not live in isolation from major international challenges such as the Sino-US trade war, Britain's exit from the EU, and other challenges that cast a shadow over the region.

The United Nations predicted global economic growth would slow to 3 percent this year from 3.1 percent last year. The IMF has also lowered its expectations due to the US-China trade war, as well as Europe's weak performance.

The Arab economies have not developed towards the digital and cognitive economy, and have been struggling to dedicate the "real economy", he said, calling for a shift towards knowledge economies.

He adds that it is ironic that budgets of more than a dozen Arab countries - including Saudi Arabia - are barely worth the market value of Amazon for e-commerce, which amounts to 800 billion dollars.

Ironically, Arab farmers are struggling to plant their land and harvest. Then, for example, the US Federal Reserve (USB) prints "short dollars" (without cover) to spoil the farm's fatigue, which, in his opinion, reflects the big gap. Between the real economy and financial economy, as he put it.