US President Donald Trump said that the IS militants remaining in Syria will be destroyed, and the areas they occupy will be released within a month.
“We have achieved a lot in relation to ISIS. There are very few of them left. After 30 days, they won't be left at all, ”Trump told reporters after signing a bill to assist the victims of the genocide in Syria and Iraq.
The decree, signed by the head of the White House, aims to provide humanitarian assistance to members of religious minorities in two Middle Eastern countries - Christians, Yezidis and other victims of terrorist activities.
Excellent opinion
However, in Washington, not everyone agrees with the assessment of the situation in Syria, which is given by Donald Trump and his military leaders. According to the November report of the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (СSIS), in the region, especially in Iraq, there is still a threat of an increase in the number of IG terrorist attacks, despite assurances from the American side to the contrary.
“While many American and Iraqi politicians are in a hurry to declare victory in the fight against the“ Islamic State ”, a lot indicates that the terrorist threat from the IG remains. At the same time, the militants change their tactics during attacks on government facilities, ”writes report author Maxwell Markusen.
Some US media, such as The New York Times and US News & World Report, indicate that the number of terrorist attacks carried out by IS militants has increased recently.
According to the CSIS report, which is referenced by the US News & World Report, in 2018, the IS militants carried out an average of 75 attacks on various targets in Iraq per month. This is a quarter more than in 2016, although it does not exceed the figures of 2017. The greatest terrorist activity was noted in the province of Kirkuk - there the number of attacks compared to last year has doubled.
In its December 9 report, NYT reported that some Kurdish units had begun to strengthen their positions in anticipation of new attacks by terrorists.
- Syrian government fighters
- Reuters
- © Omar Sanadiki
At the same time, Colonel Jonathan Byrom, deputy head of the Joint Command of the US Special Operations in Iraq, told reporters on the eve that, despite the frequent attacks of militants, the situation in the region is stable.
“There are a large number of attacks, but they do not have a serious impact on the overall security situation,” Byrom quotes US News & World Report.
CSIS analysts believe that the number of militants of the IG can number from 20 to 30 thousand people in Syria and from 10 to 15 thousand people in Iraq.
However, at a meeting with media representatives, Byrom did not confirm this information, while refusing to disclose the number of terrorists according to the data of the armed forces. He added that the remaining militants in the region are forced to exist in "Spartan" conditions - caves and underground tunnels.
Unstable situation
According to Vladimir Batiuk, head of the Center for Military-Political Studies of the Institute of the USA and Canada, Russian Academy of Sciences, Trump’s statement to end the ISIS in 30 days is “self-PR, since the current American president is very fond of acting on the principle of not praising himself, no one will praise.
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“The current policy of Washington in the Middle East provokes a mixed reaction both in the region and in the United States itself. The Trump administration is accused of surrendering the Middle East to the enemies of the United States - Russia and Iran. Trump's statements can only cause bewilderment to experts who understand the situation perfectly well, ”explained Batiuk.
Complete the defeat of the IG in 30 days is impossible neither in practice nor in theory, the expert stressed.
“The situation in Syria is far from stabilization, and for its resolution it is necessary to achieve truly effective national reconciliation on an anti-extremist basis. Only in this case it will be possible to talk about the eradication of militants, ”Batiuk believes.
The terrorist activities of the Islamic State in the region will continue until the central governments of Syria and Iraq fully control the territory of their countries, which is hampered by the United States, the expert explained.
At the same time, the Trump administration blames Russia and legitimate Syrian authorities for the presence of militants in the region. So, in September, Assistant US Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Robert Karem announced that Moscow and Damascus were responsible for making the Syrian province of Idlib a “nest of terrorist organizations.”
According to Karem, the SAR government forces and Russia used Idlib as a “dump”, allowing the “worst terrorists” to settle in the area.
No bet to win
Trump doesn’t care much that his statements may not be true, the main thing is “to screw in a spectacular phrase,” says military expert and political analyst Ivan Konovalov.
“Even the average man understands that it is impossible to knock out terrorists from Iraq and Syria in 30 days. The United States made a lot of efforts just to prevent the SAR, Russia, Iran and Turkey from really fighting terrorism, ”Konovalov explained in a conversation with RT.
According to the expert, Trump is not sufficiently aware of the situation in the region, and therefore makes such loud statements.
For four years of finding the forces of the international coalition led by the United States in the SAR, they have achieved almost no military and political successes, experts underline. Coalition actions in Syria and Iraq can objectively be given only the lowest rating, Konovalov added.
“However, for the participants of this coalition such an assessment does not matter, they don’t care. For them, the most important thing is not to end the war, but to pursue their political and economic interests. All this is being done under US pressure with the full support of members of the coalition forces, who simply have nowhere to go, ”the analyst said.
The US and its allies in Syria and Iraq acted on the basis of the requirements of the political situation, the expert explains.
“In order to bring down the Syrian regime, they first relied on the Free Syrian Army, then on the Kurds, and now openly on the dead terrorists and insurgents. There are practically no military successes there. The Rakka was taken by the forces of the Democratic Union, the USA supported them from the air and destroyed the city. The same goes for the situation in Iraq. Mosul has been completely destroyed. Here is the top of the military-operative art of the Americans. The bet on a decisive victory was not made, ”Ivan Konovalov concluded.
* “Islamic State” (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.