Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara “in a few days” will launch a new military operation in the SAR. This was the Turkish leader said, speaking at the defense forum in Ankara. According to him, the troops deployed fighting east of the Euphrates River, in an area controlled by Kurdish Syrian democratic forces.

"We strongly want to return peace and tranquility to residents in the east of the Euphrates, as they did in other regions of Syria," RIA Novosti quoted Erdogan.

It is the forces of the VTS that the Turkish President has designated as the main opponents. Ankara considers the local organizations of Syrian Kurds - the Popular Self-Defense Detachments (YPG) to be an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which Turkey recognized as terrorist. However, Erdogan indicated the intention to also eliminate the remnants of the "Islamic state" *, against which the Kurds are fighting.

“Turkey is ready to immediately destroy any ISIS presence in the area,” Daily Sabah quotes Recep Erdogan.

After the presidential statements, the Turkish media reported on the transfer of additional units of the Turkish troops and military equipment to the border zone with Syrian territories east of the Euphrates. Earlier, on October 30, Erdogan already spoke about the preparation of an operation against the Kurdish formations.

“Now we are not talking about bluffing or empty statements,” said Yury Mavashev, head of the political direction of the Center for the Study of Modern Turkey, in an interview with RT. - These are quite specific intentions to push the disloyal illegal formations of terrorists from the border. Previously, information about the preparation of a military operation by the end of December was circulating. ”

If Ankara does start fighting in the SAR territory, then this Turkish operation in Syria will be the third in the last two years. From August 2016 to March 2017, the Turkish armed forces, with the support of the Syrian opposition, conducted the operation "Euphrates Shield" in the north of the Arab Republic. The main adversary of Ankara then became the units of the "Islamic State", although the Kurdish formations were also hit.

  • Kurdish militants in Syria
  • Reuters
  • © Rodi Said

On January 20, 2018, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch in the Kurin-controlled area of ​​Afrin near the Turkish border. Syrian democratic forces then became the main opponent of the Turkish troops and their supporting Syrian opposition. Official Damascus traditionally negatively relates to the operations of foreign powers in Syria, which have not received the relevant permission of the government of the republic.

Turkish motives

Simultaneously with the announcement of a military operation in eastern Syria, Recep Erdogan sharply criticized the United States and their support for Kurdish formations. According to him, Turkey is “trying to mislead”, claiming that the supply of weapons will stop after the formation of ISIL is broken.

  • Turkish President Recep Erdogan
  • Reuters
  • © Umit Bektas

“We were promised that the YPG would leave the territory east of the Euphrates. As a result, we see that the number of trucks loaded with weapons with them exceeded 20 thousand. In addition, the United States has now begun to train 30,000 terrorists, ”Erdogan said. - Why do you act not with us, but with them? Are we not NATO partners? ”

In addition, the Turkish leader stressed that the Americans are not fulfilling the agreements reached earlier on the formation of joint Turkish-American patrols in the Syrian city of Manbij.

As Timur Akhmetov, an analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, said in an interview with RT, Erdogan’s statement about the emergency operation should prompt the United States to revise its plans in northern Syria. A few hours before Erdogan’s speech, the Pentagon announced the creation of American observation posts in the area on the border with Turkey. At the end of November, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Acar stated that the construction of such points "would complicate the situation in an already difficult region."

“The main factor that stimulates the leadership of Turkey to conduct an operation is the lack of progress in negotiations with the United States on the support of Kurdish militants,” suggested Timur Akhmetov. “The American allies of Ankara are trying to find any legitimate reasons for continuing cooperation with the Kurds after the destruction of ISIS.”

From the point of view of the expert, Ankara intends to demonstrate to the Americans with its tough actions that without Turkey, the Americans in Syria cannot do anything in the long run. In addition, according to him, there are internal political implications in the actions of the Turkish leadership.

“Local elections will be held in Turkey in three months, Erdogan’s party is in an alliance with the nationalists. Such a union needs to create the right atmosphere, ”says Akhmetov.

A similar opinion is shared by Yuri Mavashev.

“Erdogan and the Nationalist Movement Party recently decided to renew the alliance, and one of the conditions with a high degree of probability was the conduct of this operation,” the political scientist suggested.

Dangerous proximity

“As far as I know from my sources, the future operation will be accompanied by massive air strikes, and then an offensive armored vehicle is planned,” said Mavashev in an interview with RT.

The Turkish publication EHA News notes that, unlike the operation in Afrin, in the area where Turkish troops will have to fight this time, foreign military formations are concentrated. This is primarily the US military, but there are also French, British and Italians.

Erdogan, announcing the start of hostilities, said that the Turkish military would not touch the Americans.

“The American soldiers will not be our targets,” the Turkish president assured.

According to Timur Akhmetov, the desire to avoid clashes with the allies of the Syrian Kurds should limit the territorial scope of the upcoming operation. In addition, he recalled that earlier the Turkish troops did not go far beyond the 100 km strip near the Turkish-Syrian border.

“We must take into account, firstly, the presence of troops from the United States and other Western countries, and secondly, the range of artillery from the border areas,” Akhmetov said. - It is clear that the operation will not take place too deep in Syria. For Turkey, it is important to gain control over the Syrian side of the border. ”

At the same time, according to the expert, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of separate local clashes between Turkish troops and Western military experts in Syria.

Yuri Mavashev notes that, most likely, judging by the experience of the actions of the Turkish military, they will warn in advance or have already warned the Pentagon about a future operation so that it can withdraw its subordinates from the combat zone.

“I believe that Western military experts will be recalled, because the Turkish side will not look at who has any stripes. Given time to clear the area near the border. Further they will act according to the principle “who did not hide, I am not guilty,” says Mavashev. “Turkey considers itself a strengthening regional power and is not going to ask anyone for permission to conduct a military operation.”

  • US troops in Syria
  • Reuters

According to him, the Americans will be forced to "surrender" their Kurdish allies and retreat to the south if they wish to maintain relations with the Turks. In turn, Ankara can regard this as evidence of improved relations with Washington. However, as the expert notes, it is too early to talk about the latter.

“Bilateral relations are very complex and, at least, American analysts are not inclined to believe that everything will settle under the Trump administration,” said Yuri Mavashev.

* “Islamic State” (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.