Freezing of NATO membership applications from Finland and Sweden, threat of a new offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, tensions with Greece on the Aegean islands, refusal to impose sanctions against Russia… If Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to defy Westerners on diplomatic grounds, he would not do it any other way.
While all eyes are on the war in Ukraine, the Turkish president seems to be trying to take advantage of it by advancing his pawns and imposing his conditions on issues that are very sensitive in the eyes of Americans and Europeans.
Thus, despite "constructive" talks and "progress" with Turkey, Monday, June 21, a rapid release of the candidacies of Sweden and Finland promises to be compromised one week before an Alliance summit in Madrid. .
Ankara criticizes these two nations, particularly Sweden, for their closeness to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which dreams of creating an independent Kurdish state that would bring together southern Turkey, northern Iraq, northern of Syria and western Iran.
This Kurdish movement, listed as a terrorist by Ankara, but also by the United States or the European Union, has been leading a guerrilla war in Turkey since 1984.
The Turkish president said he was "waiting for concrete and serious measures" from these two countries before considering opening the door to the Alliance to them.
Clearly, he wants to haggle his green light.
Beyond the PKK, Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants his Western allies to lift restrictions on arms and technology exports, decided at the end of 2019 following the Turkish operation launched in northern Syria against Kurdish militias.
They had fought, with the support of the international coalition led by Washington, the jihadists of the Islamic State organization.
"When he talks about a new offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria or threatens to block Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to show that he does not does not compromise with Turkish nationalism and that it can impose its agenda and its conditions, underlines David Rigoulet-Roze, specialist in the Middle East, associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Research (Iris) and editor-in-chief of the magazine Orients Strategiques. This nationalist over-investment aims to compensate for his disastrous economic management of the country, to flatter his base and mobilize voters in the perspective of the next elections which promise to be rather complicated for him.
Defiance and one-upmanship
One year before the presidential and legislative elections of June 2023, this mistrust and outbidding of Westerners may prove electorally profitable for him, while the economic crisis and galloping inflation are at the heart of the debates in Turkey.
According to a poll by the German Marshall Fund published in April, 58.3% of Turks consider the United States "the main threat against Turkish interests", while 62.4% of them believe that the Europeans "seek to divide and disintegrate Turkey as was the Ottoman Empire".
They are also 69.8% to think that European countries have helped to strengthen separatist organizations such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
“Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a real political animal who acts on the international scene like a poker player, adds David Rigoulet-Roze. There is often a domestic political issue behind his standoffs with Westerners and his different martial postures on the international scene are in part only an adjustment in relation to its internal constraints and its personal interests in maintaining power.
Erdogan "cannot cut ties with Westerners"
Even if it means feeding on international crises or making Westerners tense, as in recent years, drilling in the Mediterranean in disputed areas, but also the conflict in Libya and the question of the Russian S-400 missiles purchased by the Turkey despite its NATO membership.
“These are punctual postures, largely provocative, because he cannot cut ties with Westerners, nor create a new world at his convenience, underlines David Rigoulet-Roze. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not unaware that the Turkey's first trading partner remains the European Union and that the United States has become, in 2020, the third largest customer of Turkish exports".
More recently, Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to impose sanctions against Russia, from where Turkey imports energy and cereals and with which Ankara maintains special relations despite sometimes antagonistic interests, as in Syria or Libya.
On June 8, he received Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose legitimacy is not recognized by Westerners.
At the beginning of June, the Turkish president also announced that he was ending regular meetings with Greek leaders intended to foster bilateral cooperation according to an agreement reached in 2010. Turkey claims that Greece is stationing troops on islands in the Aegean Sea in violation of signed peace treaties, and threatens to open a debate on their sovereignty.
“It may seem on the surface that he is the master of the game against the Westerners, but in reality he tests them every time to see how far he can go and if he can pull off a political coup. by drawing a geopolitical gain on the regional chessboard, or an economic gain to relieve the country's finances, develops the specialist in the Middle East. The situation of the Turkish president is not as comfortable as it seems, because 'He takes the risk of being stigmatized by all the other members of NATO and of becoming in a way 'the black sheep' of the organisation."
Turkey remains indispensable
Beyond electoral considerations, the Turkish president is seeking to put Turkey back among the powers that matter.
Regionally but also internationally.
"Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very nostalgic for the greatness of the Ottomans, which has a deep echo in the current Turkish psyche, with the idea that Turkey must once again become a power recognized as such, in the absence of an empire, indicates David Rigoulet-Roze The problem is that Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions are hampered by reality, since Turkey cannot afford to find itself isolated, while it is in great difficulty economically, and purchasing power of the Turks is rolled".
And to continue: "but the initial contract of the AKP with the Turks was to ensure an expanding standard of living, which was the case for twenty years, continues the specialist in the Middle East. But this is not no longer the case today. This places President Erdogan at odds with his traditional electorate, hence the appeals of the foot in the direction of the petromonarchies of the Gulf, which he nevertheless condemned to loathing for the last decade".
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as "MBS", is expected in Turkey on June 22 for his first official visit to the country, during which several agreements should be signed between the two regional powers.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan had already visited Saudi Arabia at the end of April after three and a half years of estrangement arising from the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul.
In the end, Recep Tayyip Erdogan knows that Turkey, guarantor of the Montreux Convention [signed in 1936, it allows free movement in the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits, as well as in the Black Sea, Ed], is essential to a military and geopolitical point of view for Westerners.
If his membership in NATO now raises questions as it compromises the enlargement of the alliance in the midst of the war in Ukraine, they seem condemned to cohabitation with the strong man of Ankara.
“When Turkey became a member of NATO, we were in another world and in an internal and external configuration that has nothing to do, decrypts David Rigoulet-Roze. During the Cold War, the country which defended the The southern flank of the Alliance was secular, anti-Communist, pro-Western and pro-European.The situation has changed significantly since the AKP and Erdogan are in charge and embody an Islamo-nationalist power that wants to be at the very least non- aligned."
"It is certainly not the time to question Turkey's role and status in NATO, it is in no one's interest, but for all that, the credit that other members give it does not "is no longer necessarily the same, clearly, concludes David Rigoulet-Roze. Turkey remains indispensable in the eyes of Westerners who seek to prevent it from going it alone, because it is a pivotal country: Caucasus, Middle -East, Black Sea and Europe".
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