It remains to ask Gazprom

Amazing, we must pay tribute, surprises and revelations are sometimes prepared for us by the surrounding historical reality. And most importantly, this very reality is understood by our traditional European, including energy, partners. Simply, for example, right now in the German (German, attention, dear, not Russian, "pro-Putin" and / or even more "pro-Gazprom" media!), Apparently, the main thing for the current situation in the Federal Republic of Germany the question is: how can the German energy sector be bypassed in matters of Russian gas supplies to Europe, the European energy legislation? And despite all the obstacles invented by Europe itself, by the way, as soon as possible to launch a ready-made, as they say,The Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 is “ironed out” for commercial operation, without observing the generally accepted certification procedure.

What can I say here: the picture turns out to be quite surprising, even.

Just see for yourself.

As, for example, sources from the authoritative German publication Handelsblatt, the operator of Nord Stream 2, Nord Stream 2 AG, report that if the pipeline is launched before the certification process is completed, it will have to pay a one-time fine “just” up to € 1 million. undoubtedly, under no circumstances should the "Russian gas workers" be stopped "at current European gas prices" (c) from the word "in any way": the amount, in general, is really quite ridiculous.

Moreover.

Sources of Handelsblatt (whom, by the way, we are quite inclined to trust) from among the current European functionaries and representatives of the expert community pointed to examples in the most recent historical past, when pipelines were put into operation before they were officially certified.

Well, for example, there are “precedent” projects that are very familiar to the European energy sector, such as, in particular, the NEL directly connected with the Russian Gazprom (which is simply one of the onshore branches of the Nord Stream) or EGL-401.

Moreover, according to the estimates of the German Federal Network Agency, in this case - if the gas pipeline is launched before the certification process is completed - the fine for the operator company will be, we quote again Handelsblatt, “no more than € 1 million” (c).

Which, again, looks pretty funny.

And the Russian Federation, accordingly, such figures can scare in the same way as any office of the capital's housing and communal services is scared by the visit of the labor inspectorate for the presence of Tajik janitors.

That is, about nothing.

And in general, according to the cited representatives of the expert community, such a scenario may seem “tempting” to the operator, especially given the current level of gas prices.

It would seem a pretty beautiful story.

But in reality, of course, this is not the case.

And it is precisely the long-term predicted situation on the European energy markets that dictates to the Russian supplier a completely different model of behavior, not very familiar to European consumers.

To make it completely clear.

Gas prices on the European "spot" markets, fixed by the figures at the TTF gas hub in the Netherlands, which are the base for the continental energy, continue to fluctuate somewhere around the $ 1,000 mark per 1,000 cubic meters.

That Russia, excuse me, is more than happy with it.

Moreover, it is important to note that quotations are at about the same level, judging by the current futures contracts, the European gas market is laying down for the entire first quarter of next year, 2022.

That is, to make it clear - for almost the entire heating season in Europe.

And why, in such a situation, would the Russians at least change something ?!

Just to explain the fact: despite any “expert assessments from Handelsblatt”, the Russian “Gazprom” in recent months has been quite consistently reducing the total booking of transit capacities not only through the problematic Ukrainian, but also through the Polish transport gas corridor, which is quite loyal to the main Russian supplier. (gas pipeline Yamal - Europe, if anyone does not understand).

Just so that there are no misunderstandings, we state: in recent months, the Russian gas giant has so sharply reduced the volume of monthly reservations and, accordingly, the pumping along the Polish route that it became noticeable to any, even not highly trained observer.

There is even nothing to discuss here, the numbers are already quite eloquent: in recent months, Gazprom has ordered a maximum of a third of the available pumping volume.

And as of December, the Russian gas monopoly completely abandoned this proposal along the route, as they say, altogether.

And that is precisely why it would be, to put it mildly, somewhat rash, to assume that Gazprom, relying on the needs of its European partners, will violate European legislation right now.

And a little naive.

And no, it’s not that the Russians were afraid of something and didn’t want to increase exports to Europe at a very comfortable price: it’s still much easier.

For them, the Russians, this is generally, in principle, useless in the current circumstances.

Gazprom and the objectively standing behind it the Russian Federation (let's at least not deceive ourselves here) are quite satisfied with the current state of affairs.

The task was to create an alternative to the Ukrainian route for transporting gas to Europe, as they say, "in iron" - so this task has already simply been solved in fact.

Here it is, lying at the bottom of the harsh and windy Baltic, at the same time increasing the capitalization of the Russian gas monopoly: the task set, from the point of view of Gazprom as a business, has in principle been solved.

And what is indicative is that it was decided for the money of the European partners of the Russian gas giant: at the bottom of the cold Baltic, no matter what they say, European, or rather, mostly German and Austrian money lies.

And actually Russian money in these "Baltic threads", if you look at it like that, lies exclusively up to Ust-Luga.

Where is a very interesting construction going on now.

Including through the LNG line.

Everything else is purely your European conventions.

Accordingly, you should allow them.

And the state of the Russian Federation in general and Gazprom in particular, it seems, is finally tired of dragging chestnuts for continental Europeans from the light diligently kindled by their Anglo-Saxon allies.

And whether the Russians need to "overcome" the stupidity of the European energy bureaucracy by violating the European (yes, quite idiotic and more than bureaucratic) legislation on certification of the gas pipeline we have built - you better ask Gazprom.

Perhaps, by the way, it will go towards.

Price question.

But first, after all, everyone, including Gazprom, needs to answer the eternal and philosophical - as it happened - questions “Why?”, Excuse me, and “Why?”.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.