Is there a possibility of Ukraine joining NATO? More likely no than yes. On many formal grounds, the country falls short of membership. Its armament does not meet NATO standards, it is unable to carry out deep and deemed necessary reforms of the armed forces, since this requires huge amounts of money that the impoverished country does not have. Still, this is more of a political issue than a technical one. If Washington decides that Ukraine should enter the North Atlantic Alliance, then the issue will be resolved regardless of how the Ukrainian army is trained and armed.
Back in June, the President of Russia said on the air of the Russia 1 TV channel that there are no guarantees that Ukraine will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. If a neighboring state nevertheless achieves membership in the alliance, serious consequences are possible, Vladimir Putin said. According to him, in such a situation, the flight time of Ukrainian missiles to Moscow will be reduced and it will be about going beyond the red lines: “Let's imagine that Ukraine becomes a NATO member. The flight time from Kharkov, say, or Dnepropetrovsk to the central part of Russia, to Moscow, will decrease to seven to ten minutes. Is this a red line for us or not? "
From the words of the Russian leader, one can understand that the deployment of NATO military complexes on Ukrainian territory is quite capable of causing the start of large-scale hostilities. At least 50% of Ukrainians do not want their country to join the military-political bloc of Western countries, the Russian president said: “And these are smart people. I speak without any irony. This is not because other fools, but because those who do not want to understand that they do not want to be in the line of fire. "
But for now, Ukraine's prospects for membership are extremely vague. The position of the United States, which is decisive, can hardly be called favorable for Kiev, since the White House directly speaks of the unwillingness of the Ukrainian state to join the alliance. On June 14, Joe Biden spoke on this issue at a press conference: “The fact is that Ukraine has yet to eliminate corruption. She must meet other criteria in order to receive a membership action plan. " In addition, he said that the problem can only be resolved if a collective decision is made: “In the meantime, we will do everything possible so that Ukraine can continue to resist Russia's aggression. And it will not only depend on me whether we conclude that Ukraine can become a part of NATO, but will depend on the alliance and how it will vote. ”
It is well known that Germany and France are not even against Ukraine's membership, they believe that it is too early for the country to grant the MAP. In early September, German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldgusen said that the military conflict in Donbass and Russia's "occupation" of Crimea are obstacles to Ukraine's entry into NATO, but she believes that someday the "window of opportunity" for membership will still open. In an interview with TSN.ua, she said: “You know that NATO is 30 member countries. Getting consensus is not easy. Ukraine knows this. You have worked very hard to convince individual countries. But the fact remains that there is a military conflict in Ukraine. It is always difficult for NATO to accept new countries where there are such conflicts. "
In Art.
5 of the fundamental treaty of the North Atlantic Alliance refers to the immutable statute of collective defense: "Collective defense means that an attack on one of the NATO members will be considered an attack on all NATO members."
That is, if the West believes that Russia is at war with Ukraine, as Anka Feldgusen believes, then the alliance must take the country under its protection.
However, it seems that no one wants to fight with Russia today, since this is not a very promising business.
There are examples when countries with unresolved conflicts became NATO members.
The list of such states is quite impressive: Spain, Canada, Denmark, Italy, Greece, Turkey and so on.
And nevertheless, the Russian leadership considers it necessary from time to time to warn the West that the invitation of Ukraine to the alliance will lead to very distressing consequences.
Earlier, Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that retaliatory measures from Russia in this case would not be long in coming, since NATO's approach to the Russian borders should be compensated for by steps to "ensure the security of the Russian Federation."
The fact that the Russian defense complex has all the necessary means for a worthy response is well known, including to the members of the alliance.
It must be assumed that this circumstance serves as a weighty guarantee that Ukraine in the long term does not have NATO membership.
No one will even try to check Moscow for weakness.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.