The circulation of the virus causing Covid-19 "remains intense" in France with a "very critical" situation in the West Indies but Public Health France has detected a "mini-plateau" in the progression of new contaminations in metropolitan France.

In its weekly epidemiological update on Friday, the public body confirms "extremely high incidence rates, saturated hospital capacities and a significant excess of mortality" in Martinique and Guadeloupe.

But in the rest of the country, the "slight increase in the incidence rate" over the week of August 9 to 15 (+ 3%) is explained, according to SPF, "probably by a sharp increase in the screening rate", linked the implementation of the health pass (certificate of vaccination or negative test) to enter bars, restaurants, cultural and leisure places.

Some hopes for the metropolis

"It is rather good news", estimated Daniel Levy-Bruhl of the direction of infectious diseases, stressing that "the incidence continues to increase but very weakly this week".

This allows us to hypothesize that "over two consecutive weeks we would have a mini-plateau", continued the epidemiologist, while stressing that "it is much too early to say that we have reached a plateau, a fortiori the peak ”of the fourth wave.

SPF officials stressed that the increase in hospitalizations in metropolitan France, "more moderate than last week", and that of deaths were expected because they stem from the outbreak of the epidemic observed in previous weeks.

For Daniel Levy-Bruhl, "the situation in metropolitan France, which does not apply to certain overseas departments, raises some hopes, to be related to the conjunction of two factors".

Vaccine coverage on the rise

First "the improvement of the vaccination coverage which is 70% (in metropolitan France) and even 80% for the target population (more vulnerable, Editor's note), a very honorable coverage for mass vaccination", according to Daniel Levy -Bruhl.

SPF underlined the "good progress" in the coverage of 12/17 year olds, vaccinated in the first dose for 54.6% of them on August 17, against 24% in mid-July, one month after authorization.

Daniel Levy-Bruhl also cited an “improvement” among health professionals, with 84% of first-time vaccines in health establishments and nursing homes, and 90% among private caregivers.

The other factors that "contributed to this positive development are barrier measures", the health pass and the tracing of contact cases.

And back to school?

The question is to know "if this favorable development will persist" with the return from summer vacation and the start of the school year on September 2.

All of this will "reshuffle the cards" with "more intense social activity" which can "influence the rate of transmission", according to Daniel Levy-Bruhl.

According to the official, "we must continue the efforts" and prepare for it "as best as possible", including through "very strict protocols" in schools for children under 12 who cannot be vaccinated.

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