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A report by the

UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

(SAGE) raises four possible scenarios for the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. According to this report, published last week, which attempts to analyze what will happen to the

coronavirus

in the short term, a first scenario is expected in which 1 in 3 infected dies due to a

new variant

as lethal as MERS. [Read the full report here]

British experts consider this scenario to

be "likely" as long

as the circulation of the coronavirus remains high, in addition to suggesting that this is

a "realistic possibility"

.

Solutions that could prevent this include increasing vaccination, controlling the arrival of variants from other countries, and even vaccinating animals.

According to experts, this scenario could be due to point mutations or recombination with other host genes.

This can occur through a change in internal

SARS-CoV-2

genes

, such as polymerase proteins.

These genes determine the outcome of the infection by affecting how the

virus

spreads

.

The

second scenario

poses a variant that avoids

current

vaccines

.

The expert group considers this scenario to be "almost certain".

In this case, we talk from developing new vaccines to re-vaccinating the most vulnerable or at-risk population, in order for these individuals to achieve

sufficient immunity

to avoid the effects of this hypothetical variant that could defeat vaccines.

In addition, they recommend monitoring antigenic variants and updating candidate vaccines to cover the variants.

The

Scenario Three

poses

new variants resistant

to antiviral treatments.

SAGE sees this as "likely" as long as antivirals are not used or administered correctly.

The last scenario foresees that the

coronavirus

evolves with a drop in its virulence.

This scenario contemplates that the

coronavirus

becomes more transmissible, but less virulent, that is, it adapts to humans and becomes a common "endemic" disease.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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