COVID-19, Intervention of Emmanuel Macron on television to announce the 3rd confinement of the country.
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MEIGNEUX ROMUALD / SIPA
Emmanuel Macron announced a national confinement of four weeks from April 3 and the closure of schools, nurseries, colleges and high schools.
Because the coronavirus epidemic has become difficult to control, with more than 5,000 patients in intensive care.
But only one month of confinement, a lighter measure than last year, that may seem short when you know that it takes two to three weeks for the effects to be felt in the hospital ...
It's the last straight line.
How many times will we have to repeat this sentence?
After the announcement Wednesday evening by Emmanuel Macron of a third national confinement of four weeks, France will plunge again from next week into a parenthesis without nurseries, without schools, without colleges, without high schools, without certain shops and without travel .
But a month, as the incidence and hospitalization curves have been climbing for weeks, it may seem short.
Less strict containment
“Last year, we had eight weeks of strict confinement, recalls Eric Billy, researcher in immuno-oncology in Strasbourg and member of the collective Du Côté de la Science.
This allowed us to have a relaxed spring and summer, with a very low incidence.
This time the limitations have clearly loosened.
"The question is difficult, because it will depend on the effectiveness of the measures, underlines for his part Rémi Salomon, head of the pediatric nephrology department at the Necker-Enfants Malades hospital and president of the Medical Commission of the establishment of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP).
The limitations will actually begin on April 5 and will not affect the hospital until three weeks later.
So you arrive around April 25th.
»Date on which nursery and primary schools must reopen.
“It will also depend on teleworking.
Will it be followed more than today ?, continues the doctor.
I fear that people have reached such a level of saturation that they will have a hard time not having meals with their loved ones.
I am afraid that these measures will not have a spectacular effect, and that we will still be, in a month's time, with strong pressure in the hospitals.
Especially since the patients stay in sheave on average for a fortnight, which is likely to still have a lot of people in these services in May.
"
Fear of a recovery in May
"This confinement will help, it is a certainty", continues Eric Billy.
The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, assured this Thursday morning that the peak of the third wave should be reached "within 7 to 10 days".
"We see on the contaminations diagrams of 2020 that the curve goes down less quickly than it has risen," says the researcher.
We therefore risk ending up in early May with roughly the same impact as today.
This is why the recovery must take place under very secure conditions.
"
Especially in schools.
Because for many caregivers, the protocols - there has been a slew of them - could be improved.
Recall that last year, the recovery of schoolchildren, college and high school students was done very gradually.
With in particular half-groups.
What is not envisaged this time.
“School catering must be secure,” continues Eric Billy.
The canteen could be limited to children whose parents cannot telecommute or in difficult economic situations.
A protocol had been proposed so that children always eat in the same place to avoid mixing.
The other way, "is to speed up the vaccination of teachers," adds Rémi Salomon.
Normally, they should be vaccinated from mid-April.
Two weeks, it may be a bit short to vaccinate the more than 800,000 teachers.
Improve screening
Above all, the question of screening remains essential to prevent contamination from exploding again in mid-May.
As is currently the case in Germany.
From mid-April, a new tool could improve the triptych "test-trace-isolate", even if it has not yet proven its effectiveness: self-tests, available only in pharmacies.
With a simple sample from the nose (shallower than the nasopharyngeal), you can be sure in fifteen minutes that you will not be bringing Covid-19 to your business or your family.
“Self-tests should also be available in supermarkets,” Eric Billy insists.
Their network and their schedules would make it possible to reach as many people as possible.
There is a huge benefit in isolating an asymptomatic or little symptomatic person, it is this chain of contamination that must be cut.
“An infected person without any symptoms risks spreading the Covid-19 for 48 hours.
This is why the researcher imagines that performing a self-test twice a week could secure the return to class and companies.
An effect of vaccination?
Of course, there are still vaccinations.
During April, they should pass the second.
“We hope to receive 2 million doses of Pfizer per week,” continues Eric Billy.
Speed up vaccination while having semi-confinement, it makes it possible to be more efficient.
" For two reasons.
The first is practical: it avoids wasting time.
Because if there is less travel, the French are less likely to arrive late.
Second advantage: "By confining, you reduce the circulation of the virus, and therefore the risk of the appearance of variants," continues the immunologist.
"
Will accelerating vaccination reduce contamination more quickly?
"When we reach 15 million people vaccinated [we are currently approaching 3 million French people who have received two injections], we should see an effect on the epidemic, we have seen it with the elderly", rejoices Rémi Salomon .
But Eric Billy is more skeptical.
"It is only when we vaccinate the main vectors of diffusion, that is to say the active people, that we will really break the diffusion," he says.
But Emmanuel Macron announced it yesterday: the opening of vaccination to under 50s will not open before mid-June.
"A mass vaccination during the summer will make it possible to have a more peaceful return to school in September and a calmer fall", he hopes.
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Emmanuel Macron