China-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 26 (Lin Wansi) Recently, sporadic or clustered epidemics have appeared in many places. With the arrival of the Spring Festival "returning wave", the flow of people has increased, and the risk of epidemic spread has further increased.
Regarding the outbreak in Hebei and other places, Professor Yang Zhanqiu of the Institute of Virology of Wuhan University Medical Department pointed out in an interview with the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that as long as the regional infection is controlled, confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and close contacts will be checked and controlled. Moving to low-risk areas, the epidemic will be contained within a week and will not continue to develop.
The number of cases that are still increasing are sporadic cases and are under control, but whether it will end before the Spring Festival requires further observation.
He believes that only universal vaccination can achieve herd immunity and the immune barrier can be stronger.
Nowadays, the scope of new crown vaccination is gradually expanding, but it is still necessary to continue to maintain normalized prevention and control habits. After all, the probability that the new crown pneumonia epidemic may disappear in the next few years or even longer is not high.
Yang Zhanqiu had been engaged in the research of newly-onset virulent infectious diseases.
In 2003, a new type of coronavirus disease, SARS (SARS), broke out globally. In order to control the outbreak of this disease again, Yang Zhanqiu led all teachers and students in the laboratory to develop SARS coronavirus vaccine, fighting against SARS. front.
Six years later, the H1N1 flu broke out. He once again stood on the front line, fought against the virus with his team, and found antiviral drugs. His research results were included in the National Health Commission's "H1N1 Influenza Prevention Guidelines (2010 Edition)" .
On the eve of Wuhan’s “closed city” in 2020, he also led his doctoral students in the laboratory to conduct research on anti-influenza virus drugs and virus mutations. The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic interrupted his research.
Nearly 9 months later, Yang Zhanqiu walked into the familiar laboratory again and continued his research.
"I have been dealing with the virus for nearly half my life, and I have never experienced the new crown virus in my life." Yang Zhanqiu admitted frankly when accepting the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client.
Although Yang Zhanqiu is not directly involved in the development of the new crown vaccine, he still pays close attention to the progress of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the development of the new crown vaccine.
Recent photos of Yang Zhanqiu.
Photo courtesy of respondents
What other judgments does he have regarding the epidemic?
The following is an interview with Yang Zhanqiu by the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client (slightly edited):
"The probability that the new crown pneumonia epidemic will end in recent years is unlikely"
Sino-Singapore Jingwei: When will the epidemic in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places end?
Yang Zhanqiu: Whether last year or this year, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic occurred in winter and early spring. The temperature in this season is low, and the sub-zero environment has become a cold chain, which provides the environment and conditions for the virus to survive, and compares the duration of retention of activity Long, it is prone to viral infections at this time.
As people gather and flow to cause the outbreak of the virus, this is uncontrollable, and the virus not only flows from person to person, but also exists in the natural environment, where the phenomenon of "material transmission" occurs.
In addition, the new coronavirus is highly infectious and the proportion of asymptomatic infections is high, which has aggravated the invisibility of virus transmission, and there is still the possibility of local outbreaks.
According to official information, the outbreak in China this year is basically an imported infection that caused an outbreak in some parts of the country. The transmission path and the scope of the case are very clear. As long as the regional infection is controlled, the confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia can be compared with People who are in close contact will investigate and control their flow to low-risk areas. The epidemic will be contained within a week and will not continue to develop.
The number of cases that are still increasing are sporadic cases. Within the scope of control, whether it will end before the Spring Festival requires further observation.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei: When can people take off their masks?
Yang Zhanqiu: China has a very thorough prevention and control system, monitoring system, and nucleic acid testing capabilities. It is unlikely that a new coronary pneumonia pandemic will occur again in recent years, but this does not mean that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic will be ended in the next two years.
China's new crown pneumonia epidemic has been affected by foreign epidemics. Nowadays, foreign epidemics are spreading rapidly in many countries. In addition, many countries are limited by vaccine production and cold chain transportation capabilities. It will take a long time to complete the full vaccination of vaccines.
Vaccines can stop the spread of viral infections.
The most successful example is the elimination of smallpox virus worldwide thanks to vaccination.
I believe that after vaccination, it can be universally protective.
However, only universal vaccination can achieve herd immunity and the immune barrier can be stronger.
Nowadays, the scope of the new crown vaccine is gradually expanding, but it is still necessary to continue to maintain normalized prevention and control habits. After all, the probability of the new crown pneumonia epidemic may disappear in the next few years or even longer.
"The new crown vaccine does not need to be vaccinated every year, and there is no need to test for antibodies after vaccination"
Sino-Singapore Jingwei: How do I know if the vaccine I have given is effective? How long will the antibody take effect? Is it necessary to check the antibody?
Yang Zhanqiu: After being vaccinated with the new crown vaccine, there is no need to self-check antibodies.
After vaccination, the preventive effect of the vaccine is affected by the characteristics of the pathogen, the characteristics of the vaccine, and the immune status of the recipient.
The new crown virus vaccine does not need to be vaccinated every year. When an epidemic occurs or a local epidemic occurs, it needs to be vaccinated.
Within half a year after the completion of the vaccination, the immune effect is the best period. At this time, the antibody level is high and the immune protection ability is strong. After half a year, the antibody may gradually decline.
But based on the characteristics of the coronavirus infection, I think the new coronavirus vaccine antibody can be maintained in the human body for 2 to 4 years. For individuals, there is no need for antibody testing during this period.
In addition, the current antibody detection on the market mostly uses the colloidal gold method. This method is relatively simple and fast. However, it is affected by the detection sensitivity and cut-off threshold. It is difficult to define the gray zone specimens, and it is prone to "false negative" or "false positive". Case.
There is a lack of clear comparison between the kits of various manufacturers, and the standardization of the antibody detection and inspection process still needs a long process.
If you really want to return home for the New Year, pay attention to these things!
Sino-Singapore Jingwei: Recently, various localities have launched an initiative "New Year in Place". What suggestions do you have for those who really want to return to their hometown for the New Year? What are the precautions during the Chinese New Year?
Yang Zhanqiu: During the Spring Festival this year, the mobility of the population will be greatly reduced. Regardless of the high-risk or medium-risk areas, as long as the areas with confirmed cases appear, they should be the focus of attention.
The winter and early spring seasons themselves are the epidemic period of the new crown virus. If the infection cases in these areas are not controlled, it will easily cause the new crown pneumonia epidemic to spread throughout the country.
I suggest that people in the epidemic outbreak area should not be moved as much as possible; those who do not have an epidemic outbreak area should bring a 7-day negative nucleic acid test certificate, travel on a staggered peak, and take care of the whole process.
China’s requirements for epidemic prevention during the Spring Festival travel period are relatively high. Recently, personnel in areas where newly infected cases are located in Beijing’s Daxing District have been investigated, and anal swab tests have been added to nasopharyngeal swabs, oropharyngeal swabs and serum tests, also to prevent People infected with the new crown virus "leak through the net", reducing the probability of false negatives.
However, logistics during the Spring Festival is also increasing. Under low temperature conditions, we need to be alert to the risk of virus contamination of imported cold chain food and other goods.
There are many imported cold chain foods, and it is difficult to find all potential risks in random inspections. As far as possible, attention should be paid to customs product quarantine information, including inspection and quarantine certificates, nucleic acid test reports, disinfection certificates, and cold chain food traceability data.
Do a good job in outer packaging disinfection and self-protection, and avoid direct consumption of seafood such as raw or half-raw are all effective ways to avoid infection.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei: How to choose plane and train for public transportation?
Yang Zhanqiu: Whether the new coronavirus is infected or not depends on the presence or absence of the virus in the environment and the viral load (the number of viruses in the environment).
If the next person is a confirmed patient with fever, cough and other symptoms, then his body is a "virus-making machine". Although he wears a mask, the virus is still discharged from his body, plus the mask is removed on the way back home Eating and drinking water, if the viral load is too high, it is very likely for others to be infected.
However, asymptomatic infections excrete fewer toxins. On the one hand, they have strong resistance. The immune cells in the body swallow the virus. Even if part of the virus is excreted, the amount of new coronavirus excreted from the body is limited and the transmission capacity is limited. Symptomatic infections do not need to worry too much, but those with symptomatic infections need to be guarded.
If you return to your hometown, the first choice is the means of transportation that gets you home the fastest and has the least number of contacts. It is the safest to minimize the chance of contact with others within a unit time and shorten the time spent in public places.
At the same time, many viral infections do not occur while riding in transportation, but when waiting for trains or planes, the density of people increases, the chance of exposure increases, and the spread of pollutants or the environment occurs.
Judging from the current prevention and control measures, the chance of being infected when returning home during the Spring Festival is not high, but personal protection must be done.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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