Abolishing the autonomy of Kashmir would risk backfire

Shocking move
Motives and Wallpapers
The Pakistani position

This August in the Kashmir valley has begun a lot of activity because it is one of the few months that Kashmiris can earn from tourism, which is the largest source of income for the general Kashmiris before the long, harsh winter. Hundreds of thousands of Hindu visitors from all over India to visit the sacred Amarnath cave continued their long journey to the highest mountains. Kashmir hotels and hotel boats in the Kashmir lakes were full of tourists.

Suddenly, India began sending more troops to the already heavily populated Kashmir valley, and Amarnath visitors, tourists and even non-Kashmiri students in the valley's universities and colleges were ordered to leave within two days. The official argument was that terrorists from Pakistan would launch attacks on Amarnath visitors.

People were puzzled by these extraordinary measures and concluded that something big would happen in Kashmir. On the morning of August 5, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah stood in the Indian Parliament to announce the abolition of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and the division of the state of Jammu and Kashmir into “federal regions”, which are directly subordinate to the central government.

Shocking move
The move was a bomb that India has not yet recovered from, while the vast majority of Kashmiris are unaware of what has been done to its mandate. It has been transformed into a large prison since early this month. Regular Indian forces were deployed everywhere with the disarming of Kashmiri police (made up largely of Kashmiris), areas separated by barbed wire, and 100 pro-Indian politicians and MPs imprisoned.

Separatist leaders have already been - for months, some for years - in prison or under house arrest, unarmed separatist organizations have already been banned, and government announcements of newspapers supporting the separatists have been banned. So far, the vast majority of Kashmiris do not know that a radical political change has completely changed their lives, robbing them of the autonomy that India promised Kashmir when it joined - despite its Muslim majority - in 1948.

Farooq Abdullah, a former state chief minister and former central minister, said August 5 was worse than in March 1846, when the British sold Kashmir to their ally Gulab Singh for 7.5 million rupees. One rupee per Kashmiri back then!

Just as the Kashmiris were not consulted in determining their fate in 1846, they were not asked for their opinion on 5 August when autonomy was taken away from them within the Indian Federation, although India had significantly reduced Kashmir autonomy over the past seven eras, Many safeguards remained for the Kashmiris, such as the non-implementation of any Indian law in the state only after the approval of the Legislative Council, and the prohibition of non-Kashmiris own land in the state, and that the subordination of the state only to the indigenous people.

The reactions of Kashmiri politicians who have long stood with India against the Kashmiri separatist movement can be understood by the fact that former state chief minister, Mahbooba Mufti, said: "This action has transformed India into an occupying state in Kashmir." She said the Indian government wanted to change the demography of Kashmir and turn Muslims into second-class citizens. "It is a complete betrayal of the Secretariat. This decision has far-reaching and serious consequences. This is an aggression against the people of the state," said former chief minister Omar Abdullah.

Motives and Wallpapers
This decision is the culmination of India's big stick policy in Kashmir since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power five years ago.During this period, India has refrained from any talks with separatist leaders, and has even harassed, persecuted, and imprisoned them with various arguments.

It is believed that the reason for the Indian government's decision now is that US President Donald Trump has twice said that he is ready to mediate between India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmiri problem, following his meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on July 22. This confused the Indian leaders who reaffirmed that they do not accept the presence of any third party in the Indo-Pakistan conflict.

India, in this unilateral action, wanted to bring the United States and Pakistan to a new fait accompli. Ultimately, however, things may not flow into the course India wants. Many countries and international organizations, including the European Union and the United Nations, have criticized the Indian action and demanded that India review its unconstitutional decision.

Since the Indian Constitution says that Article 370 of the Indian Constitution can only be repealed or amended with the approval of the Legislative Council of the State of Jammu and Kashmir; it can be said that the Indian action is illegal and unconstitutional. The Supreme Constitutional Court has already filed an appeal against this procedure, but the Supreme Court refused to consider it an "urgent case". This is an indication that the case may remain locked in the Supreme Court for many years until it is lost.

While many Indian parties supported the government in this decision; other parties opposed it. Leftist parties said the decision would create "Palestine in Kashmir". Indian Muslim leaders have generally opposed the decision because they see it as ultimately aimed at them, because the abolition of India's only Muslim-majority state is in the Hindu movement's goal of marginalizing India's Muslims politically and economically.

Since the accession of Kashmir to India and its autonomy, the Hindu movement has been demanding the full integration of the state in India with the abolition of its autonomy, allowing the government to change the demography of the state by housing the Hindu in protected areas within it.

The Hindu community was very happy and sweets were distributed in the Hindu areas and offices to celebrate this huge achievement, and considered it a step towards the establishment of the Hindu state in which minorities - especially Muslims and Christians - second-class citizens. Some of them tweeted that they would marry the goodwill of Kashmir now, and called on others to select their liking!

The Pakistani position
The Pakistani reaction was on the expected lines; Pakistan considered this Indian move a unilateral change of the status of Kashmir, despite the declarations of India since the beginning of the problem as an issue between India and Pakistan, and they will be resolved by joint talks between them.

Pakistan has taken several steps to force India to retreat, including withdrawing the Pakistani ambassador from India and expelling the Indian ambassador from Pakistan, announcing going to the United Nations, stopping trade with India, closing several civil aviation routes to and from India via Pakistani airspace, and stopping the friendship train between The two.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has hinted that many "Pulwama" terrorist incidents will take place in Kashmir, an incident that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took advantage of in his election three months ago.

There is speculation that things could eventually lead to war between the two countries. Such a development from Pakistan's perspective would put the Kashmiri problem back on the international agenda and force India to concede. Pakistan may revoke the Simla Treaty between the two countries in 1972 and the Lahore Declaration of 1999, having been the framework for their relations in recent decades.

The comprehensive curfew in Kashmir is expected to last for months and then be phased out, with the Indian army re-deploying throughout the Kashmir valley and other areas with large Muslim populations in Jammu and Dakhla. Kashmir now has one soldier to five, the highest in the civilian areas of the world. There is news from Kashmir that despite the strict curfew, there have been several incidents in which Indian soldiers were pelted with stones.

The armed separatist movement broke out in Kashmir in the late eighties of the last century, and continues to this day, although the number of militants has fallen to several hundred, while it was estimated about forty thousand militants at the height of the separatist movement in the early nineties. Many have been killed, others arrested, some have laid down arms and joined Indian security, while some have fled to Pakistani Kashmir.

It is estimated that about 100,000 people, including a civilian, an armed man and a soldier, have been the victims of the separatist armed movement, about 10,000 have disappeared from the face of the earth, and about 10,000 women know nothing about the fate of their husbands. .

The Kashmiri armed separatist movement is now expected to revive again, with a sense of great injustice to Kashmiris and Pakistani support after the situation has changed. Under Imran Khan, Pakistan had begun to withdraw its support for the Kashmiri movement due to Indian and American pressure. Some of the Kashmiri politicians, who had previously been with India, are expected to support the separatist movement in its new wave.