The third year of the Russo-Ukrainian war could be decisive. Russia - despite its control over four Ukrainian regions - is still unable to force Kiev to negotiate peace.
Next November, the United States will witness presidential elections, and former President Donald Trump has a strong chance to return to the White House. This scenario - if it comes true - could have major effects on the course of the war in Russia’s favor. The only way he will be able to fulfill this promise is to decide that peace cannot be achieved without agreeing to Russia's terms, and forcing Ukraine to accept them.