Drawing by Li Chunding and Hou Yutong, Director of the Institute of International Economics, School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University
China News Service, Beijing, January 17 (Reporter Chen Su) Li Chunding, director of the Institute of International Economics of the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, said on the 17th that the surge in the prices of international bulk agricultural products may increase the risk of China's imported inflation.
At the "2022 China Economic Situation Analysis Conference" hosted by China News Agency on the same day, Li Chunding analyzed the international bulk agricultural product prices and China's food security situation.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 17th, China's total grain output in 2021 will reach 1,365.7 billion catties, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a new high.
China continues to adhere to the bottom line of "basically self-sufficiency in grains and absolutely safe food rations".
Li Chunding said that while seeing the grain harvests year after year, he should also pay attention to the increasing dependence of China's grain imports on foreign countries in recent years, especially the continuous increase in grain imports in the past two years.
Li Chunding said that in 2021, the prices of most international bulk agricultural products will keep rising, and the closing prices per ton of soybean, wheat, corn, and soybean oil futures will increase by 11%, 34%, 40%, and 37% year-on-year, respectively.
International bulk agricultural product prices pose certain challenges and risks to China's future grain imports and food security, and may exacerbate the risk of imported inflation. It is expected that international bulk agricultural product prices will continue to maintain a high level in the first half of 2022, which will affect China's domestic market in the future. Price Index.
In the face of rising international grain prices and changes in China's domestic grain demand structure, Chinese executives recently proposed to maintain the country's grain bottom line, continue to ensure that grain output remains stable at more than 1.3 trillion kilograms in 2022, and proposed to expand soybean and oilseed production.
"Chinese high-level officials have repeatedly emphasized that the Chinese people's rice bowl must be firmly in their own hands at all times. Although the global food security situation is relatively tense due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2021, China's food security is guaranteed, especially food rations. Absolutely safe." Li Chunding said that at present, soybeans, soybean oil and other feed grains are highly dependent on foreign countries, so we must plan ahead and take precautions.
Li Chunding suggested that China's food security work in 2022 should stabilize the sown area of grain, expand soybean and oilseed production, implement a strict arable land protection system, and curb the "non-grain" of arable land. At the same time, it is necessary to promote the revitalization of the seed industry and improve agricultural productivity. ,Increase production.
It is also necessary to build a support policy system to ensure the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, to compact local grain production responsibilities, and to expand grain output.
(Finish)