Chinanews.com, January 31. On the 31st, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index.
In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.
In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1%, 54.4% and 52.9% respectively, 3.1, 12.8 and 10.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the three major indexes all rose to In the expansion range, my country's economic prosperity has picked up significantly.
1. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose above the critical point
In January, as the epidemic prevention and control entered a new stage, the order of production and life was gradually restored, and the PMI of the manufacturing industry rose to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range. 18 of the 21 industries surveyed were higher than the previous month. The level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry Quicker recovery.
(1) Simultaneous improvement at both ends of supply and demand.
The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 50.9%, respectively, 5.2 and 7.0 percentage points higher than the previous month. The level of production and demand in the manufacturing industry has picked up significantly, but due to the Spring Festival holiday factors, the improvement in production is less than market demand.
From the industry situation, the production index and new order index of 9 industries including agricultural and sideline food processing, medicine, general equipment, railway, ship and aerospace equipment are all in the expansion range. Among them, the production and demand of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have increased significantly, and both indexes have increased To 65.0% above the high-level boom range.
(2) The PMIs of enterprises of all sizes rebounded.
The PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.3%, 48.6% and 47.2% respectively, 4.0, 2.2 and 2.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level of enterprises of all sizes has rebounded.
The survey results show that the proportion of large, medium and small enterprises reporting insufficient labor supply is all lower than 11.0%, which is a significant drop from the previous month, and the shortage of employees restricting production has eased.
(3) The PMI of key industries rose to varying degrees.
The PMIs of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods and high energy-consuming industries were 52.5%, 50.7%, 50.9% and 48.6% respectively, which were 5.1, 4.7, 4.0 and 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level has improved to varying degrees. .
From the perspective of market demand, the new order indexes of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 55.6%, 52.3% and 52.4% respectively, which were 11.2, 10.3 and 8.5 percentage points higher than the previous month, and all rose to the expansion range. Demand has picked up.
(4) The confidence of enterprises has been significantly enhanced.
The production and business activity expectation index was 55.6%, 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and rose to a relatively high level of prosperity. Enterprises have good expectations for the recent market recovery and development.
From the industry perspective, the production and operation expectation index of the railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment industries rose to a high level of above 60.0%, and the confidence of enterprises in the development of the industry has increased.
2. The non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded sharply
In January, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range, and the non-manufacturing business climate bottomed out.
(1) The prosperity level of the service industry turned from a decline to an increase.
In January, the business activity index of the service industry was 54.0%, ending the six-month consecutive decline and rising to the expansion range. The consumer market picked up during the Spring Festival holiday this month, and the prosperity level of the service industry rebounded sharply.
Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 are in the expansion range, among which the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is in the high-level boom range above 60.0%. The business activity indexes of retail, accommodation, catering and other industries were all higher than the previous month by more than 24.0 percentage points, returning to the expansion range, indicating that residents’ willingness to consume has increased significantly, and market activity has rebounded.
From the perspective of demand, the new order index was 51.6%, 14.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, rising to the expansion range, and the momentum of the recovery and development of the service industry has increased.
In terms of expectations, the business activity expectation index was 64.3%, 12.0 percentage points higher than last month, rising to a recent high point, and business expectations are positive.
(2) The prosperity of the construction industry rose.
The construction industry business activity index was 56.4%, 2.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the construction industry as a whole maintained rapid expansion.
From the perspective of expectations, the business activity expectation index was 68.2%, 6.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and it has been in the high-level boom range for two consecutive months, indicating that with the implementation of various policies and measures to promote the start of major projects and construction, the construction industry enterprises have a positive impact on market development. stay optimistic.
3. The composite PMI output index rose to a recent high
In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%, an increase of 10.3 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation prosperity of Chinese enterprises has rebounded.
The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 49.8% and 54.4% respectively.
In January, the purchasing managers' index returned to the expansion range, reflecting the obvious positive changes in the production and operation prosperity of enterprises compared with December 2022.
But at the same time, we must also see that in January, there were still many manufacturing and service companies that reported insufficient market demand. Insufficient market demand is still the primary problem facing the production and operation of enterprises. The foundation for my country's economic recovery and development needs to be further consolidated.
(China New Finance and Economics)