Eastern overclocking: in 2023, the share of sales of Chinese cars in Russia may grow to 40%

In 2023, Chinese foreign cars can almost double their presence in Russia and occupy more than a third of the country's passenger car market.

Such estimates were shared with RT in the Avtostat analytical agency.

“As for the forecast for the current year, in my opinion, the share of the “Chinese” in the Russian car market may be 35-40%,” said Azat Timerkhanov, head of the company’s press service.

As previously calculated by the agency’s specialists, in 2022 the share of cars from China in Russia increased by 2.6 times - from 7.5 to 19.4%.

According to this indicator, Chinese models outperformed competitors from Japan (12.4%) and Europe (18.3%), but slightly outperformed Korean (19.5%) and Russian (29.4%) brands.

At the same time, China has become the absolute leader in the supply of new passenger cars to Russia, as evidenced by the materials of the Federal Customs Service.

According to the agency, from January to December 2022, about 117 thousand cars were imported from China, which is about 40% more than in 2021.

The Russians purchased almost 122,000 cars from the Asian republic, according to a study by Avtostat.

The best-selling cars were Chery.

Approximately every third (32.3%) purchased Chinese model belongs to this brand.

In addition, cars of such Chinese brands as Haval (28%), Geely (21.9%), Exeed (9.9%) and Changan (2.1%) are very popular among the population.

In general, China's automotive expansion in Russia began during the coronavirus pandemic.

In 2022, the process accelerated noticeably after the departure of many foreign companies from the Russian Federation, partner of the Avtostat agency Igor Morzharetto told RT.

“Sales and production of European, Japanese and American brands have largely ceased.

As a result, a significant shortage formed on the market, and buyers began to look closely at new and not very popular models before.

Chinese manufacturers, on the other hand, were able to offer motorists a number of high-quality and interesting options that have entered our market well,” the specialist noted.

Against this background, over the past year, the number of dealers of Chinese brands in Russia has grown by one and a half times and today exceeds 1050. According to Igor Morzharetto, in 2023 the value will continue to increase, and Beijing will become the largest foreign player in the Russian car market.

“It is worth noting that today the “Chinese” are actually not inferior in quality to Western foreign cars.

In recent years, the Chinese auto industry has noticeably rushed forward, pumping all its characteristics.

At the same time, at prices, Chinese models have already approached Korean ones and are now approaching European ones, ”the RT interlocutor added.

Market recovery

In total, about 626.3 thousand new cars were sold in Russia in 2022.

This is 58.7% less compared to the figure for 2021 (1.52 million), noted in Avtostat.

However, according to the agency's experts, in 2023 the market will gradually begin to recover.

Thus, according to the company's baseline forecast, from January to December, sales of passenger cars may increase by 4% - up to 650 thousand units, and in an optimistic scenario - by 25%, up to 780 thousand. Partly this should be facilitated by a further increase in the number of Chinese cars, we are sure experts.

“Due to the sanctions change in market conditions, Chinese expansion continues.

Already in the last months of 2022, the share of car brands from China rose to 30%, and the trend will obviously lead to the fact that by the end of 2023 they really will take up to 40%, ”said the chief analyst at TeleTrade in a conversation with RT » Mark Goykhman.

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It is curious that the share of sales of Russian cars in this case may rise to 50%, Igor Morzharetto believes.

According to him, the state program of preferential car loans, resumed in July 2022, can partially support the market.

As part of the initiative, Russians can get a loan on favorable terms when buying Russian-made cars of the UAZ, Lada and GAZ brands worth up to 2 million rubles.

In this case, the discount will be 25% of the price of the vehicle in the Far Eastern Federal District and 20% in other regions of the country.

Initially, the program was supposed to end on December 20, 2022, but the Ministry of Industry and Trade extended it to 2023, RIA Novosti writes.

In addition to soft loans and the active arrival of Asian manufacturers, parallel imports should also help the Russian market recover from last year's losses, Igor Morzharetto is sure.

Recall that this mechanism allows importing original foreign products, including Western cars, into the country without the consent of the copyright holders.

At the same time, it may take several more years to fully return car sales in Russia to pre-crisis levels.

This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.

“We need not only a wide supply of cars and low cost of loans, but also an increase in the solvency of the population.

Car prices have risen a lot lately, and many Russians prefer to postpone such an expensive purchase until better times.

I think the market will be able to fully recover in two or three years,” concluded Deev.