Despite numerous shock waves, world trade is growing surprisingly faster this year than assumed in spring.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) now expects the volume of goods trade to grow by 3.5 percent in 2022, as it reported in Geneva on Wednesday.

In its forecast in April, it assumed only 3.0 percent.

However, economists expect drastic skid marks in the coming year due to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the pandemic and the consequences of climate change.

For 2023, they drastically lowered their forecast from 3.4 to 1.0 percent.

In the case of global economic growth, the WTO continues to assume 2.8 percent for 2022.

In the coming year, she expects 2.3 percent, around one percentage point less than in spring.

Import demand is falling in the larger economies for a variety of reasons, the WTO reported.

She cites high energy prices in Europe, which, among other things, reduce consumer spending, the rise in interest rates in the United States and the production interruptions due to coronavirus outbreaks in China.

She believes inflationary pressures may have peaked.

The revision of the forecast for 2022 is mainly due to statistical adjustments and the availability of better data, writes the WTO.

An increase in export volume of 1.8 percent is expected for Europe, 2.9 percent for Asia, 3.4 percent for North America and 14.6 percent for the Middle East.

In the CIS community from the successor states of the Soviet Union, however, the export volume will decline by 5.8 percent according to the forecast.

In terms of imports, the CIS recorded a minus of 24.7 percent, while imports in Asia rose by 0.9 percent, in Europe by 5.4 percent and in North America by 8.5 percent.

Uncertainty clouds the view of 2023

The WTO explained that forecasts for the coming year are difficult because the progress of the Russian war of aggression or possible further interest rate hikes are difficult to predict.

If things go badly, global trade in goods could also shrink by 2.8 percent in 2023 according to the forecast models.

In the best case, growth of 4.6 percent is possible.

The WTO warned governments against putting up trade barriers in view of the difficult environment.

A withdrawal from global supply chains could increase inflationary pressures, limit economic growth and reduce living standards.

Free trade is also necessary to deal with climate change in order to exchange new technologies.

Governments should not lose sight of the long-term goals of limiting climate change when dealing with short-term problems such as energy supply, said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.