More than 20 countries have issued a "ban" on grain exports. Will grain prices rise further?

(Finance and Economics) More than 20 countries have issued a "ban" on grain exports. Will grain prices rise further?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, May 30 (Reporter Chen Su) According to statistics from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), under the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, more than 20 countries around the world have implemented food exports. ban".

What impact does the ban on food exports by many countries have on global food security?

Will food prices rise further?

　　IFPRI recently released data that as of May 28, more than 20 countries around the world, including Argentina, Kazakhstan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, Turkey, and Hungary, have implemented export restrictions on grains, including wheat. , corn, flour, tomatoes, vegetable oil, beans, etc.

　　Analyzing the reasons why many countries have adopted grain export bans recently, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from China News Agency that some time ago, affected by multiple factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rise in global food prices, some countries' grain export volume in the short term surge, some of them see the adverse impact of this trend on their own food supply, coupled with the current violent fluctuations in the international food market and the impact of extreme high temperature weather events, some countries have begun to take measures to restrict exports, such as India and Indonesia. Happening.

　　Statistics show that after the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February this year, the global food supply chain was tightened. Stimulated by prices, India's wheat exports surged. In April, 1.4 million tons of wheat were exported, a record high.

A large number of wheat purchases by private grain traders in India have led to rising domestic grain prices in India. At the same time, India encountered rare high temperature weather in March, which is the harvest season of Indian wheat, and wheat production is expected to be affected.

Assessing the above unfavorable factors, on the 13th of this month, the Indian government made a decision to ban wheat exports.

　　In recent years, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, international food prices have continued to rise, reaching the highest price in the past decade by the end of 2021.

Since 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has broken out. Since Russia and Ukraine are the world’s largest grain producers and exporters, the two countries account for 25% of the global grain supply. The epidemic and local conflicts have also pushed up global energy prices and logistics costs. Further impact on the food supply chain, the global food security situation "worse", and international food prices further rise.

　　A few days ago, the United Nations released the "2022 Global Food Crisis Report" warning that mankind may face the biggest food crisis since World War II.

As many as 1.7 billion people are suffering from poverty and hunger, equivalent to 2 out of 10 people who do not have enough to eat.

　　What impact will the recent ban on grain exports by many countries have on international food security?

What will be the trend of international food prices?

　　Li Guoxiang said that Russia and Ukraine are the world's major grain exporters, and Russia is also an important fertilizer exporter in the world. Due to the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, Russian agricultural products cannot enter the international market, and the international grain trade order has undergone dramatic changes in a short period of time. The food supply has formed a structural hard gap. At the same time, due to the ongoing conflict, Ukraine's food production has also been greatly affected, and Ukraine's food production is expected to decrease.

This hard gap will take some time to adjust, and the measures taken by many countries to export food will limit this adjustment. The restoration of global food supply to a balanced relationship is expected to be further extended, and the period of high international food prices is expected to be extended.

　　For China, will the current international food situation affect China's food supply and food prices?

　　From the perspective of supply situation, China's grain supply is generally guaranteed.

A few days ago, the State Administration of Grain and Materials Reserves of China stated that, based on various information, China's grain production has remained generally stable this year, and it is expected to continue to have a good harvest.

In terms of varieties, the growth of wheat is similar to that of normal years, and there is a foundation for a bumper harvest. The sown area of ​​rapeseed is expanded, and the output is expected to increase. The transplanting of early indica rice is basically completed, and the output is expected to increase steadily.

The spring sowing has passed 70%, and the progress is faster than the previous year.

Data released in May showed that China purchased 370.5 billion catties of autumn grains, an increase of 50 billion catties or 16% year-on-year, and the total amount of purchases was at a relatively high level in recent years.

　　Judging from the short-term fluctuation trend, Li Guoxiang believes that the overall supply of grain prices in China is sufficient, and the more than 100 million mu of wheat that was sown late last year was not greatly affected.

Affected by irrational factors in the early stage, grain prices rose rapidly, but now they have peaked, and the overall trend is showing a slow decline.

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