The Funcas panel raises its average inflation forecast by 1.5 points to 6.9% in 2022, a record since 1986

panel of analysts

, made up of 20 of the country's most reputable economic research services, has raised its

for the year's average

from the 5.4% it had forecast in March and they warn of an "

of the higher production costs

In fact, according to these analysis houses,

- which does not take into account the evolution of fresh food and energy products, the most volatile goods

, compared to 2.8 % that they had estimated in their last projection, due to the contagion effect of price increases to the entire shopping basket.

The forecasted average inflation would be

, when it stood at

, according to the INE.

Although these are the consensus figures, there are still

depending on the study service: the most pessimistic predict an

and

This gap is in stark contrast to the one that existed two months ago, when the pessimists were already forecasting 7.8% but the positives expect average inflation to be 3.2%, which has been widely exceeded.

The

of the Autonomous University of Madrid projects an average inflation of

;

followed by the

, which places it at

;

, at

, and the consultant

, at

On the opposite side, International Financial Analysts (

) are confident that the average CPI will moderate throughout the year to an average of

;

studies service and the

consultancy

coincide in placing it at

"The average inflation forecast for this year has increased by 1.5 percentage points to 6.9%. The panelists

until ending with a year-on-year rate in

Regarding 2023, according to the consensus, inflation would moderate to an average rate of 2.2%, with a year-on-year rate of 1.8% in December, while core inflation, for its part, would be 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively in 2022 and 2023", explains the Savings Banks Foundation.

Although in general terms they expect the

rate to be at 3.6%, some economists such as those of

believe that it could reach

, which shows the risk that the price rises are becoming more widespread.

Looking ahead to next year, the panelists are confident that inflation will drop to an average of

, already very close to the

stipulated by the European Central Bank.

However, some experts such as those of the

believe that it could still be at

and others, such as those of

, consider that it could drop even further, to

Experts warn that the rise in inflation will lead to an imminent tightening of

central bank

"Geopolitical and supply shocks aggravate inflationary pressures, leading to a tightening of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has embarked on a path of interest rate hikes, the shock wave of which has passed through the financial markets."

The panel recalls that this shift translates into the announced end of the ECB's

-both those initiated during the pandemic and the previous ones- forcing the States to

The ECB has also given increasingly explicit signals of its intention to raise the deposit facility, which has been in negative territory since 2014.

"

of energy inflation,

in the euro zone as happened in 2011", they warn.

The GDP will grow by 4.3% and employment by 2.9%

The panelists anticipate that market

rates will continue to increase during the forecast period, until 2023, and that the upward cycle will be significantly more pronounced than anticipated in the previous Panel.

According to the consensus, the

at the end of the forecast period and the

The experts who are part of the Funcas panel have also taken advantage of the updated outlook to cut their growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (

) from the 6% they estimated in March

, in line with the revision downward that have been made by organizations such as the Bank of Spain, the European Commission or the International Monetary Fund.

By 2023, they place growth at 3%.

Regarding the labor market, the panelists expect that

-two tenths less than the previous Panel-, and to 13.2% in 2023.

This slowdown is due to the fact that, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA), employment increased by 1.1% in the first quarter of the year, once seasonal effects were eliminated, which represents a

In addition, enrollment in Social Security "points to a

in the first quarter

than indicated by the EPA."

"

, while the forecast for 2023 stands at 1.9%. Based on GDP growth forecasts, employment and wages The implicit forecast of productivity growth and unit labor costs (ULC) is obtained from salary

per full-time equivalent job will

and by 1.1% in 2023 .

to the ULC, will increase by 1% in 2022 and 1.2% in the next year", they point out.

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