Today, the countries of the European Union do not have the opportunity to immediately abandon Russian energy resources.
This was announced on Thursday, May 19, by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the New Horizons marathon organized by the Knowledge society.
“Immediately it is impossible to refuse this, since we have a fairly large share in the European energy market.
About 40% of the gas we supply from the total consumption of Europe and about 20-25% of the supply of oil and oil products,” Novak said.
For almost three weeks, the EU has been trying to agree on a new package of sanctions against Moscow and, in particular, to approve a ban on the import of Russian oil.
At the moment, the parties have not yet been able to reach unity on this issue.
At the same time, only statements about a possible refusal to purchase raw materials from Russia lead to a noticeable increase in the cost of fuel in the world, Alexander Novak believes.
Since the beginning of 2022, the price of Brent oil on the international market has grown by almost 40% and is now close to $109 per barrel.
At the same time, back in early March, against the background of the introduction of large-scale sanctions against Moscow by the West, quotes briefly rose above $139 per barrel.
The exorbitant rise in oil prices has already led to a noticeable increase in the cost of fuel in Western countries.
So, for example, since the end of 2021, at gas stations in Denmark and Finland, the price of a liter of gasoline has increased by 26% - up to € 2.22 and € 2.26, respectively (more than 140 rubles), in Germany - by 28%, up to € 2, 13, in France - by 16%, up to €1.89, and in Poland - by 24%, up to €1.54.
This is stated in the materials of Eurostat.
As a result of a sharp increase in fuel prices, inflation in the euro area has already updated its historical record and reached 7.4%.
UN economists, in turn, worsened the forecast for EU GDP growth in 2022 (from 3.9 to 2.7%) and do not exclude the possibility of a recession in the region.
“The sharp rise in energy prices is a serious negative shock for European countries.
A sudden cessation of oil and natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation is likely to lead to a recession in many countries of the European Union,” said Grigor Agabekyan, an economist at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Rescue of the drowning
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation and a growing shortage of fuel in the region, the EU plans to provide additional fuel to Ukraine.
The corresponding decision, in particular, was taken by Poland.
So, Warsaw is going to send 25,000 tons of gasoline from its reserves to Kyiv, which was announced on May 19 by First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko.
“Today Poland is an important partner for us in overcoming the fuel crisis.
The western border today accounts for the majority of oil product import routes.
Our countries are actively working to increase the capacity of border checkpoints,” Sviridenko wrote on her Facebook page*.
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© Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency
According to official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, from January to April 2022, gasoline in the country has risen in price by about 13-15%, to 34.11-34.58 hryvnia per liter (more than 71 rubles).
On May 14, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine raised the marginal cost of fuel to 39.86 hryvnia (about 84 rubles) per liter.
At the same time, according to Yulia Sviridenko, real prices at gas stations in the country are often almost twice the maximum allowed level.
“We see that some unscrupulous market operators set prices higher than the maximum allowable - 60, 65 and even 70 hryvnia (about 146 rubles) per liter,” the minister said.
On May 17, the leadership of Ukraine suspended state regulation of prices for motor fuel, TASS writes.
According to Sviridenko, the initiative will saturate the market with the necessary resource, as a result of which the cost of gasoline will not exceed 52 hryvnia per liter (109 rubles).
Nevertheless, at the moment, queues continue to line up at Ukrainian gas stations, and an acute shortage of automotive fuel in the country is steadily growing.
As political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev explained in a conversation with RT, the reason for this situation was the lack of fuel supplies from Russia and Belarus.
“Even at the beginning of 2022, about 70% of the Ukrainian market was fuel from Belarus and another 25-30% was fuel from Russia.
After the start of the special operation, Russian supplies stopped.
Belarusian sellers, in turn, produced fuel from Russian oil products and also stopped supplying gasoline and diesel fuel to Ukraine,” Suzdaltsev said.
Speculators became more active in the conditions of deficit in the Ukrainian fuel market.
As a result, the remaining fuel stocks began to be resold at inflated prices, political analyst Alexander Asafov noted.
“What is left of the Ukrainian economy has turned into a spontaneous and speculative market.
At the same time, the current situation with fuel prices obviously negatively affects the local population and the remnants of the country's economy.
The consequences will also be felt by the industry, for the smooth operation of which fuel is required in sufficient quantities.
The shortage of fuel, by the way, is also observed in the armed forces, ”added the interlocutor of RT.
"Political gesture"
According to Andrei Suzdaltsev, today Ukraine can only receive fuel from Poland and Romania.
At the same time, against the backdrop of a growing shortage of gasoline and diesel in Europe itself, real deliveries of petroleum products to Kyiv will be symbolic and are unlikely to help the country overcome the fuel crisis, the expert believes.
A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Asafov.
“Poland can indeed give Ukraine a small amount of fuel as a political gesture.
But this amount will not allow providing the country with fuel and solving at least some of the economic and military problems.
European politicians, of course, can discuss global assistance to Kyiv in the energy sector, but in fact, the real state of the Ukrainian economy does not bother anyone,” Asafov said.
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© Dmitry Reshitniak / EyeEm
As Nikolai Vavilov, a specialist in Total Research's strategic research department, suggested in an interview with RT, if Europe nevertheless decides to actually increase gasoline supplies to Ukraine, the situation on the EU fuel market will further worsen.
In this case, the cost of oil may again approach the level of $130 per barrel.
“Almost all fuel storage facilities in Ukraine have been destroyed, and until the conflict ends, the country really has nowhere to wait for more fuel.
Therefore, most likely, if it is supplied from Europe, it will become even more expensive.
Moreover, this rise in prices hits the economy no less than it hits the pockets of ordinary Europeans, ”Vavilov believes.
Andrey Suzdaltsev believes that in the near future Ukraine will probably continue to receive financial support from the United States.
At the same time, Washington will actively agitate the EU to share its resources with Kyiv, including fuel.
However, according to the expert, Western support will not lead to a significant reduction in prices at Ukrainian filling stations in the foreseeable future.
“The population is having difficulty buying fuel, but it is presented to them as one of the forced consequences of the conflict with Moscow.
At the same time, some fuel companies in Ukraine are making significant profits from the crisis; for them, the conflict is a time of big earnings,” Suzdaltsev concluded.
* Meta product, activity recognized as extremist, banned in Russia by decision of the Tverskoy Court of Moscow dated 03/21/2022.