"Every time it falls below 3,000 points, those who buy bottoms are basically winners." Seeing that the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 2,900 points and then rebounded, a private equity person in Shenzhen told the First Financial Reporter.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering around 3000 points for many years, on March 16, the market consensus "policy bottom" 3023 points appeared shortly after the rebound, and it fell below 2900 points again at the opening of April 26, this time it was lower." Is the market down?
Judging from the situation in the past 10 years, every time the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points, investors who bravely hunted for the bottom of high-quality companies have become winners in the medium and long term.
And almost every time the final "market bottom" of the index is lower than the "policy bottom".
Zhuang Hongdong, manager of Cheese Fund, told Yicai.com that the market has already lacked confidence, and investors' panic has become more serious. Some leading stocks have failed to meet market expectations due to various reasons, resulting in large declines in heavyweight stocks in various sectors. It has hit a new stage low. At present, the most important thing is that the worry about the economic downturn has led to a serious lack of confidence.
"It seems that each stock has its own reasons for the decline, but from the perspective of the decline, it is already all muddy and unbearable to gamble, or systemic risks and fluctuations are the dominant factors." Regarding stock selection, Zhuang Hongdong believes that if the valuation is considered From the perspective of the current market, it is true that the market has fallen quite sufficiently, but when investors are already so panicked, it is useless to reason. Systemic risk will return in value later.
Fan Jituo, a strategy analyst at Cinda Securities, believes that in the short term, the largest drawdown of wind in the whole A quarter has reached 20%, which is the level in mid-March 2022, early July 2018, and mid-October 2018.
Strategically, 2022 may be a V-shaped shock. The first half of the year is similar to 2018, and the second half of the year is similar to 2019.
The next rebound of the index may have to wait, focusing on the changes in the Politburo meeting, the improvement of the epidemic, and the Fed meeting in May.
The performance of the sectors in the next rebound may be somewhat different from the previous ones, and some oversold growth or consumption may show performance. It is recommended to pay attention to the Internet and media of Hong Kong stocks.
In addition, the recent rapid depreciation of the RMB against the United States has further increased market concerns, and the pressure on RMB depreciation has been released in a concentrated manner.
On April 25, in order to improve the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point from May 15, 2022, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be reduced from the current 9. % down to 8%.
According to industry insiders, the reduction of the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio this time, the central bank has released a signal of "stabilization" of the foreign exchange market, which will help the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable.
At the end of the stock market crash in 2008, the "policy bottom" 1823 points and the "market bottom" 1664 points were on September 18 and October 28, respectively.
On July 9, 2015, after the "policy bottom" of 3373 points after the rescue of the market, the "market bottom" of 2850 points appeared on August 25, which was also accompanied by the rapid depreciation of the RMB in a short period of time.
On August 25, 2015, the central bank announced that starting from August 26, the benchmark interest rate on RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points.
In terms of stock selection skills, the above-mentioned Shenzhen private equity people believe that from a technical point of view, the trend of "strong stocks" is more worthy of investors' attention.
That is to say, it is necessary to select the "strong stocks" whose stock price at the second bottom at the end of April is higher than the first bottom on March 16. If the market rebounds, the position can be gradually adjusted.
In a similar situation, some of the leading financial stocks in 2018 bottomed out in July. Although the index hit a new low in October and January 2019, these stocks that bottomed out in advance all far outperformed the broader market when the bull market came. Performance.
In January 2019, the central bank also lowered the reserve requirement ratio.
Hu Guopeng, a strategic analyst at Guohai Securities, believes that we should not be overly pessimistic and gradually enter the value range.
On April 25, the market ushered in a cathartic slump, but with the substantial adjustment of the market, each index gradually entered the value range, and we should not be overly pessimistic.
Investors are advised to deploy on dips, structurally optimistic about consumption, and focus on three sub-sectors.
First, the food and beverage, catering tourism, hotels, automobiles, home appliances and other industries that are relatively fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic; second, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that benefited from product price increases and rising inflation; third, pharmaceuticals and biologicals with low valuations Wait.