Discuss new opportunities for Asian economic cooperation
Our reporter Li Pengda Liu Zhiqiang
At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still raging around the world, and the international situation is becoming increasingly severe.
What difficulties are faced by Asia's economic recovery?
How to further promote Asia-Pacific regional cooperation and inject new impetus into global economic recovery?
At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022 held on April 20, the guests and scholars actively made suggestions and shared new opportunities for Asian economic cooperation.
Asia's economic recovery faces many challenges
The first press conference of the annual meeting released the flagship report of the annual meeting "Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Process 2022 Annual Report".
The report shows that in 2021, Asia will take the lead in recovering from the global epidemic and remains an important engine of global economic growth.
In January this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the weighted real GDP growth rate of Asian economies in 2021 will be 6.3%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points from 2020.
Among the 47 Asian economies, all except Myanmar, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Iran grew faster than in 2020.
Calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity, Asia's share of the world's total economy in 2021 will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 47.4% compared with 2020.
Looking ahead to the economic development this year, the report believes that Asian economic growth will be affected by multiple factors in 2022.
Overall, the Asian economy will still be in the process of recovery in 2022, but the growth rate may be narrowed.
The development of the epidemic, the geopolitical situation after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the pace and intensity of monetary policy adjustment in the United States and Europe, the debt problems of some countries, the supply of key primary products, and the change of government in some countries will cast a shadow over the rapid economic recovery in Asia.
Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to rising commodity prices, pushing up inflation.
The rise in risk aversion has triggered capital outflows from Asia, exacerbated financial market turmoil, and increased the vulnerability of Asia's economic recovery.
"Asia's economic growth rate in 2022 can still reach 4.8%, which is higher than the IMF's expectations." Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that historically, Asia's economic growth rate has been faster than that of other regions. At present, this growth momentum has maintained inertia.
In addition, China's economy accounts for more than 40% of the entire Asia, and its leading role is very obvious.
The report believes that although it is affected by supply chain disruptions and the epidemic, these have not stopped the progress of Asian economic integration.
Intra-Asia-Pacific trade accounted for 58.5% of total regional trade in 2020, the highest share since 1990.
"The deep integration of production, trade, investment, and finance has improved the national income and people's well-being of Asian countries." Li Baodong, Secretary-General of the Boao Forum for Asia, said that the opening of the China-Laos railway at the end of 2021 will transform Laos from a land-locked country into a land-linked country, and promote the second The smooth flow of people and logistics in the region is a vivid example of the realization of regional interconnection after years of investment.
Mechanism is established to win business opportunities for all parties
Over the years, whether it is ASEAN-China (10+1), ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea (10+3) or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the establishment of these economic cooperation mechanisms has played an important role in promoting practical cooperation among countries in the region effect.
"Over the past 30 years, Asia-Pacific countries have developed rapidly and bravely stood at the forefront of the global economy. This is due to the fact that all parties have always adhered to the development concept of openness, cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win results." said Shen Danyang, director of the Boao Forum for Asia and executive vice governor of Hainan Province.
In January this year, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into effect, and the world's largest free trade zone set sail.
"RCEP members account for 30% of the global GDP and population, and the market volume is very large. Its implementation will bring huge opportunities to all parties." Huang Gencheng, director of the Boao Forum for Asia and chairman of Kaiten Holdings, said that RCEP will promote inter-regional trade , investment, export, employment and other cooperation to effectively improve people's living standards.
Shen Danyang introduced that regional cooperation includes institutional bilateral or multilateral opening such as RCEP and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on the one hand, and unilateral opening on the other hand.
The latter involves trade opening, tariff reduction and other links that will bring more or less pressure to the domestic industry, but there are also many favorable factors.
Hainan Free Trade Port is China's "best gesture" for opening up to the world, which not only creates conditions for China's own development, but also wins business opportunities for Asia-Pacific regional cooperation.
"At present, China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partners, and the institutional arrangement of the Hainan Free Trade Port is bound to bring about greater growth in trade in goods. We are gradually implementing the zero-tariff policy by means of a list, and this policy will be fully implemented by 2025. "In Shen Danyang's view, service trade will bring new development opportunities to ASEAN countries.
China is the largest source of tourists in ASEAN. With the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island, an international tourism consumption center and the implementation of the tax-free policy for outlying islands, Hainan will be "connected" with Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore to provide tourists with more tourism routes and a more convenient and affordable consumer experience.
More importantly, Hainan Free Trade Port will become a new hot spot for ASEAN companies to invest and start business here.
"From travel agencies to air transport companies, from agricultural planting and processing to labor intermediaries, all parties can enjoy real preferential policies here. For example, after registering a company in Hainan and investing overseas, the investment income can be exempted from income tax when it returns to Hainan. This will become a new springboard for Chinese enterprises to develop in the Asia-Pacific and even the world." Shen Danyang said.
Regional cooperation should be closer
"Asia-Pacific countries have always adhered to globalization and multilateralism. Here, the number of multilateral trade agreements accounts for more than 50% of the world's total. Now there are two new members, RCEP and CPTPP. These mechanisms will inject new momentum into the continued recovery of the Asia-Pacific and global economies." Boao Forum for Asia Advisory Committee, former UN Deputy Secretary-General and ESCAP Executive Secretary Akhtar believes that RCEP provides an "economic governance dimension" for trade competition, and Asia-Pacific trade cooperation will surely usher in a brighter future.
As an important part of global economic development, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for about 40% of the global share of GDP, trade and investment, and maintains a steady growth trend.
In addition to the mechanisms that have been in effect for a long time, many new international economic and trade rules such as the CPTPP are gradually expanding their influence and becoming new growth poles for the regional economy.
In September 2021, China formally applied to join the CPTPP.
"The first negative list for cross-border trade in services in China was announced in Hainan last year, and there are also many related rules on trade in services in the CPTPP. We are referring to the restrictions on trade in services among CPTPP members, and we are studying the reduction in the fields of transportation, information technology services, and finance. List restrictions, and try to merge with the negative list of foreign investment to further promote regional cooperation." Shen Danyang said.
CPTPP promotes cooperation between parties in the fields of telecommunication services, cross-border data flow and finance with higher international rules.
Financial opening is relatively sensitive to countries. How to achieve better cooperation in this field?
Akhtar suggested that in the event of a crisis, market liquidity should be strengthened by issuing bonds and other forms, and central banks between different countries should provide loan facilitation agreements without additional restrictions to achieve mutual credit enhancement.
"The infrastructure of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively backward, and in recent years, they have also faced climate crises such as high temperature and rising sea levels." Akhtar said that more funds should be promoted to infrastructure construction and addressing the climate crisis.
While accelerating the development of Asia-Pacific regional cooperation, it also faces many challenges.
Ma Kaishuo, Distinguished Academician of the Institute of Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, said that the Asia-Pacific region will experience geopolitical tests such as the Sino-US game for some time to come.
Countries should unite closely and work in a common direction to make regional cooperation closer.