Zhongxin Finance, April 15 (Zuo Yukun) "In March, housing prices in 70 cities decreased month-on-month." On the 15th, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in the sales price of commercial housing decreased, and the number of cities in each line decreased. The city has a year-on-year decline or a decline in the growth rate.
Specifically, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 38 and 45 cities saw a month-on-month decrease in the prices of new houses and second-hand houses, a decrease of 2 and 12 respectively from the previous month.
Is the property market really picking up?
What will be the next step?
Data map: There are many buildings in the urban area.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
First-tier cities take the lead in stabilizing, third- and fourth-tier cities are under great pressure
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities showed different trends in March.
The price of new houses in the first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, and Guangzhou decreased by 0.1%; the price of second-hand houses increased by 0.4% month-on-month. It fell by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou up 1.2%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and Shenzhen down 0.3%.
According to the big data monitoring of the Weifang Index, among the first-tier cities, the growth rate of Beijing is also relatively higher than that of other cities.
In March, housing prices in Beijing rose by 0.23% from the previous month, Shanghai housing prices rose by 0.05% from the previous month, Shenzhen housing prices fell by 0.47% from the previous month, and Guangzhou housing prices fell by 0.56% from the previous month.
The prices of new houses in second-tier cities were flat month-on-month, and the prices of second-hand houses fell by 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The prices of new houses and second-hand houses in third-tier cities fell by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively, and the decline was both 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
"After the policy bottom appeared, the market gradually took the lead in showing bottom characteristics in first- and second-tier cities, and in third- and fourth-tier cities, due to frequent easing policies, the price reduction rate narrowed." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said.
"The year-on-year decline in third- and fourth-tier cities is more obvious, and the pressure on the third- and fourth-tier markets is still relatively large." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the relaxation of loan policies and sales restrictions in the future is objectively Help to promote the activity of the second-hand housing market.
Data map: Real estate properties under construction.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Loose real estate credit drives market stability
"The core reason for the obvious decline in the property market was the tightening of credit policies, such as the backlog of queues caused by the tightening of mortgages for home purchases." Zhang Dawei pointed out that these problems have begun to ease significantly in recent months, and policy fundamentals have bottomed out. Policies that are conducive to rigid needs and improve the real needs of home buyers continue to emerge.
"Since March, due to weakening market demand, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have voluntarily lowered their mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions, with an average rate ranging from 20 to 60 basis points." On the 14th, in Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the People's Bank of China, introduced at the press conference on financial statistics for the first quarter held by the People's Bank of China.
"In addition, some provincial-level market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanisms also cooperate with the regulatory requirements of local governments. According to the actual situation of the city, within the scope of national policies, the lower limit of the city's down payment ratio and the lower limit of the interest rate have been lowered."
Personal housing loans are directly related to real estate transactions.
Zou Lan introduced that, for example, the ratio of personal housing loans for new houses to the sales of new commercial housing has always fluctuated between 38% and 42% from a long-term observation.
Affected by the recent outbreak of the epidemic, the decline in the income of some residents, and the obstruction of real estate construction marketing activities, the sales of commercial residential buildings have declined, and the amount of personal housing loans has also declined slightly.
As for the issue of whether mortgage repayments can be delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistical Information and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said at a press conference on the 15th that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will adjust the mortgage loan repayment arrangements flexibly and reasonably. Delaying the repayment period and other means to ease the repayment pressure of customers affected by the epidemic.
A property in Beijing.
Photo by Zuo Yukun of China-Singapore Finance and Economics
Loose policy or high-frequency introduction
"Since 2020, the real estate market has been impacted by factors such as the epidemic, some real estate companies have encountered operating difficulties, and cities with falling house prices have increased." Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance and Economics, predicts that real estate-related policies will It tends to be loose, and market differentiation will further increase.
In the first half of April, local real estate policies continued the easing trend since the first quarter of 2022, and many cities released real estate easing policies of different strengths.
Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute show that nearly 20 cities including Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Mianyang, Lanzhou, Dalian, Lishui, Suzhou, and Nanning issued various real estate easing policies in April.
Looking at the entire first quarter, the number of various real estate control policies was as high as 157, an average of nearly 2 times a day.
The same period in 2021 is 135 times, that is, the number of real estate control policies in 2022 will continue to refresh the historical record for the same period.
The policies introduced include Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Qingdao, Guangzhou and other hot cities, mainly to promote rigid demand and improve demand release.
"But from the perspective of policy effects, because the epidemic is superimposed on the market in 2021, the market is too deserted, the confidence of home buyers has not yet recovered, and the market activity is still insufficient." Zhang Dawei said.
Yan Yuejin also believes that April may become a month with frequent policies, and the introduction of policies can also be understood as several characteristics: high frequency, high density, and fast pace.
"Of course, the release of the effects of such policies also requires a process, which is what market participants need to pay attention to."
The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 decided that the central bank will use monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts in a timely manner to further increase financial support for the real economy, especially industries severely affected by the epidemic, small, medium and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households. Reasonable profit allocation and reduction of comprehensive financing costs.
Analysts generally believe that if the RRR cuts and interest rates are cut, the real estate market is expected to stabilize faster.
At the same time, the China Index Research Institute pointed out that in addition to lowering the RRR, the policy of reducing the purchase threshold and cost of home buyers still needs to continue to make efforts, adjust the untimely regulatory policies, and improve the willingness and ability of home buyers to hedge against factors such as repeated epidemics. brings uncertainty.
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