China-Singapore Jingwei, December 16th (Wang Yongle) continued to fall!
A few days ago, the latest 70-city housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November the price increase of new houses and second-bedroom cities both fell to single digits, and prices in all tiers of cities continued to fall as a whole.
After entering December, there have been heavy news related to the property market. How will the housing prices go in the closing month of 2021?
Come and see what the experts say.
rare! Prices of new and second-hand houses both fall to single digits in cities
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of new houses in 70 cities increased month-on-month "six consecutive declines", in November it fell to 9 cities, and the decline in cities increased to 59; The number of cities rose and the number of cities fell to 63, one less than in October.
In terms of different cities, the price of new homes was only flat in the first-tier cities, the second-tier cities fell for two consecutive months, and the third-tier cities fell for three consecutive months; the prices of second-hand houses both fell for three consecutive months in the first-tier and second-tier cities, while the third-tier cities reached 5 Months.
Statistics from the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute show that the month-on-month price increase of new houses in 70 cities hit a new low since February 2015 (2 cities), and the price-declining cities hit a new high since February 2015 (66 cities); second-hand housing prices increased month-on-month. The city hit a new low since October 2014 (2 cities), and the price-declining city hit a new high since October 2014 (64 cities).
"From the data point of view, this is the'worst' housing price data in the last seven years. For the first time, the price of second-hand houses has risen in only 3 cities, and the price of new homes has fallen in 59 cities is also rare in the market." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, analyzed According to the report, if calculated according to the city average of new houses and second-hand houses (calculation method: (new houses down-level + second-hand houses down-level city)/140), 70 cities experienced an average 87% city downgrade in November, the first time in seven years.
"According to simple arithmetic calculations, in November, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country fell by 0.3% month-on-month, falling for three consecutive months, and the decline is expanding." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, analyzed, 11 The monthly decline in housing prices in cities hit a record high in nearly seven years, indicating that the current pressure on housing companies is relatively high, especially the current pressure on inventory backlogs, which makes housing prices generally dominated by declines.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, analyzed that compared with before, the cooling trend in first-tier cities has slowed down. The downward trend remains unchanged, but the decline is narrowing.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that the decline in second-hand housing prices has shown an expanding trend, and the decline is greater than that of new houses. Especially when credit policies are relaxed, new houses may have greater advantages. Second-hand landlords and home buyers have shown a wait-and-see sentiment.
"The decline in first-tier cities has not expanded, but has narrowed. At the end of the year, we must guard against second-hand housing speculation, especially in first-tier cities.
According to data from 65 cities monitored by 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, the number of second-hand houses on shelves has declined for 7 consecutive months, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% in November.
The absolute value of the volume on shelves in November was the lowest since March 2020, with a year-on-year decline of 33%.
Stabilizing the property market policy becomes the mainstream first-tier and second-tier cities take the lead in stabilizing?
According to statistics from Centaline Property, the number of national real estate control policies continued to be high in November, reaching 56 times in a single month, 586 times in 2021, and 458 times in the same period in 2020, with a cumulative increase of 28%.
It is expected that the number of real estate control policies in 2021 will break a historical annual record, with an average of more than 50 adjustments in a single month, which is the first time in history.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that the biggest feature of the real estate control policy in November was the frequent warming of the policy, the central bank and other ministries and commissions frequently releasing signals to maintain stability, and some cities have also issued relevant "market stabilization" policies in accordance with the characteristics of the local market. , Talent purchase subsidies, pre-sale conditions and other aspects give confidence to the market.
Property market data map.
Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi
After entering December, heavy news related to the property market has continued one after another.
On the 3rd, the relevant person in charge of the central bank pointed out that the short-term risks of individual real estate companies will not affect the normal financing function of the medium and long-term market.
On the 6th, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and proposed “to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry”.
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from the 8th to the 10th, and it mentioned that "housing is not for speculation"-we must insist on the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, strengthen the expected guidance, explore new development models, and persist. Simultaneous rent and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and implement urban policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
On the 11th, Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at the 2021-2022 China Economic Annual Conference that the basic housing security of residents should be strengthened.
Real estate is a pillar industry, and housing is the consumption of residents.
We must adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen expectations and guidance, explore new development models, insist on simultaneous rental and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the commercial housing market to better satisfy the purchase of housing The reasonable housing needs of the residents, and the city’s policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In addition, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio).
The RRR cut this time is a comprehensive RRR cut, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds.
Regarding the RRR cut, Yan Yuejin believes that under the general background of the RRR cut, banks can increase their efforts to invest in housing loans, because the improvement of capital allocation capabilities will further help the areas including mortgage loans and development loans to become active.
In particular, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission mentioned that it will focus on guaranteeing rigid demand and improving housing demand. It can be considered that it is also a trend that more mortgages will be invested in such areas in the future.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed that the RRR cut is conducive to stabilizing the fundamentals of real estate.
The central bank's RRR cut is conducive to the smooth circulation of real estate. A smooth circulation requires capital lubricants, and appropriate adjustments on the capital side are required to realize the risk mitigation expectations.
The Crane Research Center pointed out that this RRR cut is not equivalent to a rescue. The real estate market may pick up at the end of the year, and transactions are expected to stabilize and rise.
However, it is difficult for the market to reverse the market, and the market in various cities will continue to differentiate. For those core first- and second-tier cities with relatively strong demand and purchasing power, transactions are expected to rebound significantly, and house prices are likely to stabilize; on the other hand, those who demand and purchasing power are obviously overdrawn are weak In second and third-tier cities, the overall rebound in transactions is limited, and housing prices are still facing downward pressure.
On the 13th, the Central Bank announced the statistics of personal housing loans in November. At the end of November, the balance of personal housing loans was 38.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 401.3 billion yuan that month, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin pointed out that this is the second time the central bank has released housing loan data separately.
It shows that the central bank continues to exert its efforts in guiding market expectations, which has a positive effect on stabilizing the psychological expectations of home buyers and real estate enterprises.
According to the analysis of the Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, the central bank has released single-month personal housing loan data for two consecutive months, and from the trend of the past two months, the data situation continues to improve, sending a positive market signal.
The issuance of personal housing loans has accelerated, and the tight real estate loan environment has been continuously eased, which has promoted the improvement of market expectations. It is of great significance to boost the confidence of home buyers. It will further promote the rebound of the bottom of real estate transactions and help improve the recent downturn in the housing market.
Regarding the trend of housing prices, the China Index Research Institute stated that although the signal of marginal easing of credit policy has been continuously released since October, and the marginal adjustment of regulatory policies has been expected to continue to increase, market downturn expectations are still difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the market as a whole will continue to operate at a low level in December. , Prices are still facing downward pressure.
The Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center also believes that it will still take a certain amount of time to pass from the policy end to the market end. By the beginning of next year, the real estate market environment is expected to be significantly improved.
According to Yan Yuejin's analysis, once the housing price index falls, it is generally difficult to turn positive in the short term, even if the housing loan policy tends to be loose.
The current supply scale is relatively large, and the market demand is relatively small.
Therefore, to stabilize housing prices, the key is to speed up the destocking and at the same time activate reasonable housing consumer demand.
"At present, the credit backlog in many cities has been significantly eased, and housing prices are expected to continue to fall inertially in December. However, with the gradual relaxation of housing loans, the biggest factor affecting the real estate market recently, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter of 2022. First-tier and second-tier cities will take the lead. Get out of the downturn." Zhang Dawei said.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use it in other ways.