<Anchor> This is a
friendly economic time. From today (the 6th), I will be with reporter Han Ji-yeon, who has written many good articles necessary for life. Hello reporter. (Hello.) Omicron mutations are having such a bad effect on the global situation that people say things like “shock” or “panic” these days, and there are forecasts that it will adversely affect the economic growth rate next year. saying
Yes. There are a lot of negative prospects, but the fear brought about by the omicron mutation is 'uncertainty'.
Currently, it is difficult to estimate how much impact Omicron will have on the global economy as it is in the early stages of its spread, but there is no doubt that it has emerged as a major variable in domestic and international economic conditions.
First, looking at the forecast provided by the Hyundai Research Institute, if consumer sentiment deteriorates due to the spread of Omicron, another economic shock could occur in the first quarter of next year. I'm watching.
Goldman Sachs, a global investment bank, also lowered its GDP growth forecast for next year to 3.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous 4.2%, saying that the U.S. economic growth rate will slow down next year due to Omicron.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted that "global economic growth will slow due to Omicron."Looks like we'll be downgrading further here.
In particular, in the case of emerging and developing countries, where vaccination rates are low, three years later, the economy will still not recover to the pre-COVID level until 2024.
A reporter from
, but on the other hand, the game will get better, and there is such a hopeful analysis?
Yes. This is an analysis made by the Bank of Korea. After examining all the major risks that may arise in the future, the global economy will continue its recovery trend next year.
You can feel the temperature difference from the previous forecasts. He said he evaluated factors such as the coronavirus situation, global supply chain problems, the speed at which the Chinese economy is slowing, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
He also mentioned Omicron, which is a problem, and although it is difficult to predict the development of infectious diseases due to this mutation, development of an edible treatment, booster shots in advanced countries, and rising vaccination rates in emerging countries. is likely to be alleviated.
In addition, it was predicted that the supply bottleneck will be resolved next year as raw material prices soaring to the ceiling and the logistics crisis have subsided.
A reporter from
said that companies are also in a difficult situation because of this omicron mutation.
Yes. Originally, the end of the year is a time when companies hire executives and set and set business goals and plans for the next year.
However, in a situation where there is already a lot of internal and external uncertainty, such as a rise in raw material prices or instability in the supply chain, an unexpected variable such as an micron mutation has occurred, making it difficult to plan a new year's business plan.
As if at the beginning of the corona epidemic, it was not expected that the corona situation would be this long and that it would become a pandemic.
Because of this uncertainty, companies cannot change their existing plans blindly right now.
Take Hyundai Motor Group as an example.
Even when the delta mutation spread earlier this year, factories in Southeast Asia, which account for 80% of automotive semiconductor production, were shut down several times.
Due to this production setback, we have reduced our sales forecast and investment plan for this year.
He seems nervous again with the occurrence of this Omicron mutation.
In addition, there is a forecast that the executive reshuffle scheduled for the middle of this month will seek stability rather than drastic changes.
LG Group, which has recently completed its executive reshuffle, is said to be reviewing next year's business plan, which was already reported by its affiliates in October.
The airline industry is also reviewing ways to reduce the number of international flights that it was trying to increase due to Corona, and the travel industry continues to suspend overseas products.Keywords: