Above 7.2% per annum: average deposit rates in Russia have updated their maximum since June 2019

At the end of November 2021, the average maximum rate on ruble deposits in the ten largest Russian banks increased to 7.21% per annum.

The achieved value was the highest since June 2019.

Such data on Friday, December 3, was presented by the Central Bank.

The interest rate on deposits in Russia has been steadily growing since the beginning of 2021, and during this time it has increased by more than one and a half times.

So, back in early January, the figure was about 4.49% per annum.

Experts interviewed by RT largely explain the observed dynamics by the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank.

Traditionally, financial institutions closely monitor changes in the key rate of the Central Bank and, on the basis of decisions made by the regulator, independently determine the level of long-term lending and deposit rates.

Recall that in 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic, the Bank of Russia actively reduced its key rate to stimulate the economy and business activity.

So, the regulator lowered it from 6.25 to 4.25% per annum - the minimum level for the entire post-Soviet period.

However, already in 2021, to combat inflation, the Central Bank began to raise the rate and in October raised it to 7.5% per annum.

“In March 2021, the Bank of Russia for the first time since December 2018 began to raise the key rate.

Since this month, a steady growing trend has begun in deposit returns, which will dominate until the Central Bank softens its policy, "said Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, in an interview with RT.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank is scheduled for December 17.

At the same time, during its final meeting in 2021, the top management of the regulator may increase the rate by 100 basis points - up to 8.5% per annum.

This possibility was not ruled out by the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

“We are currently moving within the framework of the baseline scenario.

At the last meeting, we outlined how we see the range of the rate until the end of this year - there is a range from zero to 100 (basis points. -

).

We will consider a solution in this range.

But I must say, of course, that we now have a forecast and inflation is, rather, at the upper limit of our forecast, we will take this into account, "- said Nabiullina during the VTB investment forum" Russia is calling! "

According to the latest estimates from Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, at the end of November, the annual inflation rate in Russia was about 8.4%.

The last time a similar value could be observed back in February 2016.

The increase in the key rate is one of the main economic instruments for slowing inflation.

As experts explain, the actions of the Central Bank lead to a rise in the cost of loans, as a result of which the level of consumption decreases.

At the same time, due to the increase in interest on deposits, the volume of savings increases.

Thus, consumer demand in the economy is weakening, which leads to a slowdown in price growth.

“Given the strong position of the Central Bank and the absence of signs of slowing inflation, we can expect that the growth of yields on deposits in the coming months will continue,” said Igor Galaktionov.

According to the expert's forecast, by the end of 2021, average deposit rates in Russia may rise to 7.6-7.7% per annum.

At the same time, already in 2022, the indicator will be able to exceed 8%, said Alexander Osin, an analyst of the department of trade operations in the Russian stock market at IC Freedom Finance.

“According to our estimates, next year the range of the average rate on indicative deposits with maturity over one year will be 8-10% per annum,” the expert suggested in a conversation with RT.

Cash inflow

According to the latest data from the Central Bank, since the beginning of 2021, the volume of household funds in bank accounts has grown by 392 billion rubles.

With the growth of interest rates on deposits, Russians began to use bank deposits more often to protect money from inflation.

Ksenia Artemyeva, the operational director of the Fast River fintech platform, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“Objectively, deposits this year have become more profitable than before.

Back in 2020, the conditions even at the most favorable rates lagged significantly behind the inflation rate, which provoked a flow of assets into real estate, as well as to the stock market.

Now, as the profitability grows, citizens again turn to banks, ”the expert explained.

According to her, the seasonal factor also partly plays in favor of the growth of rates on deposits and deposits.

So, before the New Year, banks traditionally launch additional promotions for long-term offers in order to expand their client base and attract as much money as possible for a long period.

• RIA News

• © Pavel Lisitsyn

At the same time, the majority of Russians still consider deposits to be the most reliable way of saving money, which also contributes to the flow of money into bank accounts.

Anna Bodrova, a senior analyst at the Alpari information and analytical center, shared this opinion with RT.

“The population still perceives a bank deposit as an interesting and most understandable tool for safe keeping money.

Few citizens want to understand and invest in the stock market, which, although it is more profitable, still remains risky, ”Bodrova concluded.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank, in 2022 inflation in Russia may fall to the level of 4-4.5%.

In these conditions, bank deposits can bring real profitability, analysts say.

“Even if the growth of consumer prices slows down to only 4.5%, then bank deposits on the horizon of the next 12 months can bring a real yield of 2.5-3%, which is very good,” says Igor Galaktionov.