Combination boxing fights coal speculation, many coal mines cut prices, and traders send coal to power plants overnight
"Coal is crazy" across the board
On the evening of the 20th, according to Xinhua News Agency, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it is a clear requirement of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to ensure that the people, especially those affected by the disaster, survive the winter safely and warmly.
It is predicted that the temperature in the north and other areas this winter will be lower than normal, and extreme weather may even occur.
The meeting decided that, first, we must ensure heating in the northern region, especially the northeast in winter.
Make every effort to ensure the production and transportation of coal for heating.
Crack down on coal market speculation in accordance with the law.
Second, we must ensure the use of gas for heating in key northern areas.
Third, we must give full play to the role of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantee mechanism, and do a good job in daily dispatch and weekly balance.
Scientifically implement the orderly use of electricity, do a good job of "suppressing non-compliance and protecting the people" plan, and reasonably control the lighting of the city's night scene.
Promote the whole society to strengthen the conservation of electricity and energy.
The day before, on the evening of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission issued three consecutive articles on coal prices: Studying the legal intervention measures on coal prices; organizing a symposium on key coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation companies to ensure supply and price stability; The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange survey emphasized strengthening supervision in accordance with the law, and severely investigating and punishing the malicious speculation of thermal coal futures by capital.
The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the current coal price increase has completely deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the heating season is approaching, the price is still showing a further irrational upward trend.
A series of "combined punches" by the National Development and Reform Commission achieved immediate results.
On October 20th, most domestic commodity futures opened lower. The main contracts of Zhengzhou Alcohol, Coking Coal, Coke, Zhengzhou Coal, Ethylene Glycol, and PVC continued their lower limit, continuing the trend of the night trading on the 19th. Power stocks plummeted.
On October 20, the Red Star Capital Bureau interviewed and learned that after the National Development and Reform Commission took the initiative, some coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi had reduced prices overnight, and traders sent coal to power plants overnight.
Development and Reform Commission studies to intervene in coal prices in accordance with the law
Black Diving Coal Stocks Tumbled
Power stocks go red
In the early trading of October 20, most domestic commodity futures opened lower. The main contracts of Zhengzhou alcohol, coking coal, coke, Zhengzhou coal, ethylene glycol, and PVC continued to fall and continued the trend of the night trading on the 19th.
As of the end of the afternoon, the entire thermal coal contract (12) has closed the limit, and most of the coking coal and coke contracts have the limit.
On the afternoon of the 19th, the domestic futures market closed with a large area of red, unexpectedly, the situation suddenly changed overnight.
At the same time, the A-share coal sector suffered heavy losses.
As of the close, Lanhua Kechuang (600123), Shanxi Coal International (600546), Haohua Energy (601101), Yanzhou Coal (600188), Pingmei Group (601666), Xinji Energy (601918), Hengyuan Coal and Power ( 600971), China Coal Energy (601898), Kailuan (600997) and other stocks collectively fell to the limit, the coal ETF fell 7.98%, and the coal mining industry index fell 7.22%.
The A-share power sector went red across the board.
As of the close, Huadian Energy (600726), Huadian International (600027), Huaneng International (600011), Chuanneng Power (000155), Suihengneng A (000531), Wenshan Power (600995), Datang Power (601991), Guangdong Power A (000539), Guodian Power (600795) and other stocks collectively daily limit, the power sector index rose 2.88%.
This all stems from the fact that on the evening of the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued three articles on coal prices within 10 minutes.
The article pointed out that it will study the implementation of intervention measures on coal prices in accordance with the law to promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, and also introduce eight major measures to promote key coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation companies to maintain supply and stabilize prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission finally emphasized that it is necessary to severely investigate and punish the malicious speculation of thermal coal futures by capital.
Subsequently, thermal coal, coking coal, etc. plummeted one after another, and thermal coal was tightly sealed on the drop limit.
Just four minutes after the publication of the first article of the National Development and Reform Commission, the main steam coal force began to fall.
According to statistics, as of 23:00, there are a total of 39 contracts with lower limit.
By the end of the night, the black series and chemical futures led the market, and the main contracts of Zhengzhou Alcohol, Coking Coal, Coke, Zhengzhou Coal, EG, and PVC all fell to the limit.
In addition, Peng Huagang, Secretary-General and Spokesperson of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, responded to a question from the Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter on energy supply and price stability yesterday, saying that on October 15th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued an assessment of central enterprises’ supply guarantee for this winter and next spring. The reward and punishment measures include the completion of guarantees in the assessment of relevant central enterprises.
Companies that do not fulfill the responsibility of ensuring supply and have not completed the task of guaranteeing supply shall be assessed and deducted points; for enterprises that do not work well in energy supply protection, have major safety or livelihood liability accidents, or cause major adverse effects, implement a one-vote veto and serious pursuit Responsibility, corresponding deduction of annual salary.
Some investors said that it is not difficult to see from the plummet of futures on the evening of the 19th that the state's current study has used the price method to limit coal prices in accordance with the law.
After the National Day holiday, the price of thermal coal rose all the way from 1300 yuan to 1982 yuan on October 19, an increase of 52%.
From late August to October 19, thermal coal futures prices continued to skyrocket, from less than 800 yuan/ton, all the way up to 1982.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 times.
As of the close on October 19, the price was 1835.6 yuan/ton.
Taking into account the 10 times leverage of the futures market, thermal coal futures have a 15-fold profit opportunity in less than two months.
From a medium and long-term perspective, since the beginning of this year, the price of thermal coal has risen from below 600 yuan to nearly 2,000 yuan, an increase of 238%.
Coal mining companies cut prices for sales, and traders send coal to power plants overnight
Mr. Li from Yulin, Shaanxi has ten years of experience in the coal industry. He has worked in coal mines and transportation. Now his main business is coal distribution.
He told the Red Star Capital Bureau that as soon as the news from the National Development and Reform Commission came out on the evening of the 19th, he learned that coal mines in Inner Mongolia took the lead and dropped 360 (yuan/ton).
"All coal mines in Yulin have dropped 100 (yuan/ton) for each coal type. There is no major change in Shanxi at present."
Traders also responded quickly. Some Shandong traders sent coal to the power plant overnight.
The urgency is evident from the soaring freight rates for reversed cars.
According to reports, after traders buy coal from coal companies, they hoard in coal yards.
Reversing from a coal yard to a power plant requires a reversing vehicle. The reversing vehicle is operated by an independent enterprise or individual, and the number of vehicles is limited. Large coal yards can only support 20 or 30 vehicles.
As many traders sent coal to the power plant overnight, the demand for reversed cars immediately fell short of demand.
"Under normal circumstances, the reversal freight rate is 12 yuan/ton. Last night, the National Development and Reform Commission took the initiative. At 9pm, the reversal freight rate immediately rose to 15 yuan/ton and at 12:00 to 108 yuan/ton. The initial bid price was 60 yuan/ton this morning. It is expected that it will exceed 200 yuan/ton tonight.” In other words, overnight, the reversal freight has risen 8 times.
Mr. Li said that traders sent coal overnight because they anticipated that coal prices would fall and power plants' coal prices would also decrease.
"Hurry up to take advantage of the high coal prices and sell them, but they can't be sold out overnight. It will take at least a week."
Regarding the impact of the National Development and Reform Commission on the price of thermal coal, Mr. Li believes that “there is still support downstream, and the turbulent market may continue until after the Chinese New Year.”
Recently, Qinhuangdao Port has reached a consensus with coal, electricity, upstream and downstream enterprises, railways and other transportation units, and signed the "Guarantee Supply and Stable Price Integrity Management Commitment", promising that during the heating period this winter and next spring, the steam coal will be shipped at the Bohai Rim Port. The cabin price of 5500 cards is not more than 1,800 yuan/ton, 5,000 cards is not more than 1,500 yuan/ton, 4500 cards are not more than 1,200 yuan/ton, and other high-calorie resources are not more than 2,000 yuan/ton.
"A lot of traders have 4,500 calories of coal. When they buy it, it costs 1,350 yuan/ton. Adding a freight of 200-300 yuan, their psychological expectation is more than 1,700 yuan/ton. According to the above promised price, it is already considered retaliatory. Price reduction." Mr. Li said.
Five price interventions have been implemented, two of which are related to coal
Among them, the price intervention measures implemented by the National Development and Reform Commission are based on Article 30 of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the Price Law).
In fact, it is rare for the state to directly intervene in commodity prices in accordance with the "Price Law."
According to incomplete statistics published by the Red Star Capital Bureau, since the "Price Law" was formally implemented on May 1, 1998, the National Development and Reform Commission has directly interfered with the price of coal for 23 years, excluding this study.
Among them, the two price interventions are related to coal.
According to the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, in 1996 and 2003, our country had adopted temporary price intervention measures.
In 2003, the state had implemented price interventions for SARS prevention and control products such as masks, Chinese medicinal materials, white vinegar, salt, and detergents.
On February 27, 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Emergency Notice on Interfering with the Rapid Increase in the Prices of Fertilizers and Other Agricultural Production Materials", requesting all provincial-level price authorities to take into account the actual local conditions to deal with those that were not included in the pricing catalog. Research and formulate intervention measures to curb the excessive price increase of fertilizers and other important agricultural production materials.
Price intervention methods include setting a maximum price limit for ex-factory prices, or implementing a price increase declaration system, a price adjustment filing system, and so on.
On January 16, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the Implementation Measures of the National Development and Reform Commission on Temporary Price Intervention Measures for Some Important Commodities and Services, and initiated temporary price intervention measures, mainly including price increase declarations and price adjustment filings, and price increases The range of varieties declared or filed for price adjustment are mainly finished grains and grain products, edible vegetable oils, pork, beef and mutton and their products, milk, eggs, liquefied petroleum gas and other important commodities.
On June 19, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the 2008 Announcement No. 46, stating that in order to prevent coal and electricity prices from rising in turn and promote the coordinated, stable and healthy development of the coal and power industries, in accordance with Article 30 of the Price Law, Decided to implement temporary price intervention measures on coal for power generation nationwide from now until December 31, 2008.
On November 30, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Announcement on Implementing Temporary Price Intervention on Thermal Coal and Strengthening Price Control of Thermal Coal", deciding to implement temporary price intervention measures for thermal coal nationwide.
Specific measures include: appropriately controlling price increases for contracted thermal coal; imposing a maximum price limit on market trading thermal coal; canceling coal-related funds and fee items set up in violation of regulations; regulating provincial governments' standards for collecting funds from coal.
The aforementioned temporary price intervention measures were cancelled on January 1, 2013, after which the price of coal for power generation was determined through independent negotiation between the supply and demand parties.
After that, on October 19, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the increase in coal prices is completely out of the fundamentals of supply and demand and is studying the implementation of intervention measures in accordance with the law.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo