Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, May 19 (Wu Xiaowei) Entering May, wine companies are busy picking up goods and controlling prices, and the liquor sector on the secondary market seems to be restarting.
With the approach of summer, the beer sector also performed well.
Can the "white and beer duo" allow the brewing sector to perform the Baotuan market again?
Increase prices and control stocks, stocks take off caps, and wine companies frequently move
On May 13, the Luzhou Municipal Liquor Industry Development and Promotion Bureau released an analysis of China's liquor wholesale prices. In early May, the national liquor wholesale price index was 107.24, an increase of 7.24%.
The national liquor price chain index was 100.07, an increase of 0.07%.
The Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that under the steady increase in the price of liquor across the country, Jiuguijiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Neishinjiu, and Guizhou Alcohol have recently released news about price increases or discontinuation.
Specifically, the 52-degree 500ml Jiugui Liquor (Transparent Pack) (Appreciation) and the 42-degree 500ml Jiugui Liquor (Transparent Pack) (Appreciation) will be available on the market in May 2021. The strategic price will be increased by 10 yuan/bottle, and the retail guide price Increase by 20 yuan/bottle respectively;
Luzhou Laojiao Centennial Liquor (2019 Commemorative Edition) will increase the terminal settlement price by RMB 25 per bottle from May 26;
52% 500ml internal ginseng wine will stop supplying from May 14 (except for new customers), old customers <100 pieces can apply for delivery;
The price of Guizhou mellow sauce for five-year products will increase by 15% from May 17, and the market guide price will be increased to 799 yuan per bottle.
Photographed by Wu Xiaowei, the new Jingwei in the data map
In this regard, the Huachuang Securities Research Report believes that the main line of the liquor industry from May to June is expected to shift to a controlled volume and price increase, and the mid-term report of liquor is expected to usher in a high increase, which is a solid support for the valuation of the sector, and overweight is still necessary.
In terms of target selection, considering that the first-line target may occupy a dominant position in the price increase period before the interim report, it is expected that the valuation switching in the second half of the year will be more certain and the long-term logic will be clearer.
CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that during the May 1st holiday, the sales of liquor were stable, the demand for high-end liquors was still tight, and the approved prices were relatively strong. Due to the large year-on-year growth in sales of the sub-high-end banquet demand, overall, there was a single-digit growth year-on-year and the performance was relatively stable. , There was no performance beyond expectations in the Spring Festival stalls.
Until the Dragon Boat Festival or even before the Mid-Autumn Festival, liquor will be in the off-season for consumption. Various wine companies control the prices of the goods, and the inventory is at a low level. During the empty window period, the changes in the approved prices should be closely observed to judge the trend of the industry's prosperity.
In addition, the first "100 yuan ST stock" will also be off today.
ST is willing to announce on the evening of the 17th that trading will resume on May 19 and other risk warnings will be withdrawn.
From September 22 last year to the present, it took 8 months for "ST Willing" to become "Willing Wine Industry" again.
It is worth noting that during this period, the willing stock price has risen from 32.77 yuan/share to 146.80 yuan/share, an increase of 347.97%.
After "removing the hat", investors have paid wide attention to the trend of the stock price.
"Smart money" overweight liquor
According to the 2218 Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect stock holdings announced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the 18th, on May 17, northbound funds bought 51.66 billion yuan and sold 49.08 billion yuan, making an overall net purchase of 2.58 billion yuan.
Wind data shows that from an industry perspective, food and beverages, especially liquor, have regained the favor of northbound funds. With the continuous increase of northbound funds, the total market value of food and beverages once again exceeded 400 billion yuan, accounting for 16.4 of the total market value of holdings. %.
Screenshot of Baijiu concept time-sharing chart
The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect was suspended on the 18th due to the "Buddha's Birthday", but the flush data showed that as of the close of the 18th, the concept of liquor closed up 1.24%.
Beer market followed closely
It is worth noting that as summer approaches, the beer sector is gradually heating up.
Following the first collective price increase in a decade by Snow, Tsingtao and Yanbei at the beginning of the year, Budweiser has recently announced price increases for many of its products.
Judging from the performance of the secondary market, in the early trading on the 18th, the beer sector pulled up and the Lanzhou Yellow River took the lead to record a daily limit of 4 days and 3 boards, driving Huiquan Beer and Lehui International to surge. Chongqing Beer once rose by over 6% in the plate , The stock price hit a record high.
Photographed by Wu Xiaowei, the new Jingwei in the data map
How long can the beer market last?
Galaxy Securities pointed out that in the first quarter of 2021, the sales volume of the beer industry resumed high growth, high-endization accelerated, the peak season entered a significant improvement from the previous month, and the long-term structural upgrade trend remained unchanged.
Scale effect + structural improvement, gross profit margin increased significantly.
CITIC Securities Research reported that the high-end beer industry is ushering in a further acceleration, and various companies are actively upgrading their product structure and raising prices.
In addition, this year is the year of consumption recovery, and the big year of superimposed sports events, mainstream beer brands usher in opportunities for consumption upgrades.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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