The central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose sharply by 138 points

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, April 29th, on the 29th, data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that the central parity of the renminbi against the US dollar rose by 138 points to 6.4715. The US dollar index fell significantly on the 28th and closed at 90.6220.

Prior to this, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and kept the monthly bond purchases unchanged.

Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center website

　　At the same time, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has continued to rise recently, and the US dollar has weakened successively.

On April 27, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose to 6.4805 yuan, a record high in nearly six weeks.

　　South China Futures said that recently, with the decline in US bond yields, market demand for hedging has declined, driving the US dollar index to weaken, but the US dollar net long position is still increasing.

Although the euro zone has rebounded strongly, vaccine problems still exist, so the current positive may be an early response.

Judging from the monthly performance of the U.S. Index in the past 20 years, its probability of rising in May is the highest in the whole year.

Moreover, usually from May to July each year, foreign-invested companies and overseas listed companies will enter the seasonal peak of dividends.

Therefore, after entering May, the renminbi may face devaluation pressure again.

　　According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the first quarter, banks had a surplus of US$88.5 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, of which the surplus from January to March was US$40.8 billion, US$28 billion and US$19.7 billion respectively. The surplus in March was US$48.8 billion, US$33.2 billion and US$39.3 billion.

With the decline of seasonal factors such as concentrated exports and foreign exchange collection and settlement of trading enterprises at the end of the year, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales and the cross-border balance of payments surplus have fallen from the peak in December last year.

　　Nanhua Futures said that the continued shrinking of the surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales indicates that the kinetic energy of RMB appreciation is weakening at the margin.

Before the May Day holiday, market transactions tended to be light. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will continue to oscillate with the U.S. index next week, with an operating range of 6.45-6.54, which may refresh the recent high.

According to judgment, 6.50 will be a short-term competition for long and short. It is recommended that companies with short-term foreign exchange purchase needs can buy foreign exchange on dips below 6.50 and gradually reduce their exposure to foreign exchange; companies with foreign exchange settlement needs can wait for the RMB exchange rate. After repairing to above 6.55, operate in batches.

　　Tan Yaling, an independent economist at the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, said in an article that the US dollar is expected to rise and fall differently in the second quarter, and may not be biased towards appreciation.

The renminbi will focus on repairing the market, with a tendency to depreciate, and its appreciation risk will be concentrated on the trend of the dollar and the impact of emergencies.

In the second quarter, the probability of abnormal appreciation of the renminbi is small, or there is the possibility of extreme depreciation. International relations and geopolitics are the background and important factors that dominate the market.

　　"This year, the renminbi exchange rate is generally stable, showing narrow two-way fluctuations." Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and spokesman, said earlier that on the first day of the market opening at the beginning of this year, the renminbi exchange rate jumped by 1.2% to 6.46. .

After that, it entered a relatively stable situation, with narrow fluctuations between 6.46-6.55.

Compared with major international currencies, it is relatively stable and shows strong resilience.

　　In response to the Fed’s easing policy, Wang Chunying believes, “Under this round of accommodative monetary policy, we have not accumulated excessively high external debt in China, and market risk mitigation capabilities are continuously improving. It should be said that we still have the conditions to maintain balance of payments and balance of payments. The foreign exchange market is balanced.” She pointed out that no matter from the perspective of the foreign exchange forward market or the options market, since the Fed's large-scale loose monetary policy last year, the indicators for measuring expectations have been relatively stable.

Therefore, from the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, increased flexibility and stable expectations are conducive to releasing pressure at any time.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)