Chinanews client, Beijing, March 15 (Zuo Yukun) "The increase in housing prices in 70 cities has increased and decreased from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase has increased from the previous month." On March 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced February 2021. Price data of 70 cities for the month.
Among them, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) increased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 1.1%, and the increase was 0.2% lower than the previous month. percentage point.
What is the reason why housing prices continue to rise?
How will the next property market go?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
The property market "Xiaoyangchun" spread
"The increase in house prices in February has been suppressed, but the increase is still the mainstream." said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate.
In terms of new houses, house prices in 42 cities rose month-on-month in December 2020, which was at a low level after the epidemic was controlled.
There has been a significant rebound in January 2021, with the price of new homes rising month-on-month in 53 cities.
By February, it had reached 56 cities.
The sales price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February 2021.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of second-hand housing, according to the data of second-hand housing prices in 70 cities disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics in December 2020, 38 cities rose.
In January 2021, there were 49 cities, and in February it increased to 55 cities.
"In February, under the influence of many local governments' call for "New Year's Day" and most sales offices "not closing" during the Spring Festival, coupled with the spread of panic buying under the policy, the housing market in hot cities rose." Xiao said.
"From January to February this year, the real estate transaction market showed the effect of the off-season, and the current housing prices are showing signs of heating up. And the interference caused by the epidemic has reduced, so the price is slightly stronger." Analysis Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute Weighed.
For the first time in history! Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen second-hand housing prices ranked top four month-on-month growth
Zhang Dawei pointed out that the second-hand housing prices in the four first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen ranked the top four in the country in terms of month-on-month increase in February. This is the first time this phenomenon has occurred in history.
Specifically, although the growth rate of second-hand housing prices slowed down in February, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.0% and 0.9% respectively from the previous month, occupying the top four in the country.
The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February 2021.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
"The first-tier cities have taken the top four price increases of second-hand houses, mainly due to the effect of the'In-situ Chinese New Year' initiative in February. Most migrant workers stayed there for the New Year, which led to a large release of market demand and high market activity." Chen Xiao believes .
Zhang Dawei believes that the core reason for this round of the property market from 2020 to 2021 is the credit policy, especially related to operating loans into the property market.
"At the same time, the surging trend of Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities has made the supply of a small number of newly-built houses scarce, and investors have entered the market to snatch the housing of rigid-need customers, which has led to an increase in demand for second-hand housing." Zhang Dawei analyzed that with the increase in control policies, especially Recently, the second-hand housing price limit policy has blown out, and the increase in housing prices has weakened.
For example, Shenzhen has implemented regulations such as guiding prices for second-hand housing and strict inspections on operating loans. Shenzhen’s housing price growth is currently the first to narrow, falling from 1.7% last month to 0.9%.
After the Spring Festival, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transaction also dropped to a historical low. The listing of owners and the behavior of buyers to see houses showed a strong wait-and-see mood, and the temperature of the second-hand housing market dropped significantly.
"Since March, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai has declined, and the prosperity index has maintained a high level of correction. It is expected that house prices in first-tier cities may shrink in March." Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes that second-tier cities such as Xi'an and Hefei The city’s prosperity has improved and market expectations have strengthened. Superimposed on March’s rigid demand and the seasonal release of school district demand, it is expected that the heat of the first-tier cities will be transmitted to the second-tier cities in March.
Yan Yuejin believes that the increase in the price of second-hand housing in the four first-tier cities is obviously accelerating, indicating that the supply of new housing is insufficient and the transaction of second-hand housing is relatively hot.
There have been more than one hundred adjustments in various places during the year, stabilizing housing prices is a bright sign
Since 2021, the regulation and control policies of the real estate market in various places have blown out, and the regulation has continued to increase. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Haikou and other cities have started a comprehensive upgraded version of real estate regulation.
As of a few days ago, the number of real estate regulation and control in various regions has exceeded 100 times.
Yan Yuejin believes that, judging from recent market developments, for some cities with excessive housing price speculation, there are signs of overweight or patching of regulatory policies, which will help stabilize housing prices.
Data map: Property consultants explain to house inspectors.
Photo by Zhu Xiaoying
At the beginning of March, the regulation of the property market in hot cities continued to upgrade.
Ni Hong, the vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led a team to Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province and Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province to conduct research and consult with and supervise the implementation of the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Subsequently, Hangzhou and Wuxi introduced new real estate market policies; the city that was supervised in the previous round, Shanghai, recently implemented housing sales restrictions.
Recently, Wuxi has also issued a document to regulate the release of second-hand housing information and establish a second-hand housing price information release mechanism; Dongguan has also made it clear to further improve the second-hand housing online signing transaction price release mechanism.
Zhang Dawei believes that Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing are currently in the stage of market rebound after regulation and control, and prices are rising fast.
However, tightening control policies are expected to stabilize the market, and house price growth will continue to slow down.
Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places have begun to strengthen the supervision of second-hand housing prices and operating loans, and the subsequent market is expected to gradually stabilize.
"On the whole, with the acceleration of housing prices, the new round of regulatory policies is expected to continue to upgrade. However, the trend of housing prices in most cities remains unchanged." Zhang Dawei said.
"First-tier cities, as well as second- and third-tier hotspot cities, have continuously increased the regulation of the property market, releasing a clear signal to the market." Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, said that there is a strong certainty that house prices will remain stable this year. The differentiation of the real estate market will continue, and the volatility of housing prices in different cities and sectors will still exist.
Flour is more expensive than bread? The leading of housing price to the land link attracts attention
At the same time, Zhang Bo believes that it is worth noting that the implementation of the long-term mechanism on the financial side and the land side will have a deeper and longer-term impact on the market.
The 2021 government work report proposes to solve the outstanding problems of housing in big cities, and to increase the supply of affordable rental housing and common property housing through methods such as increasing land supply, arranging special funds, and intensive construction.
This is the first time that the government work report mentions the housing problem in a big city, and "increasing land supply" has become the key word in it.
A review shows that since 2021, the "two-concentration" land supply system has been implemented in many places. 22 cities have formulated corresponding land control policies based on their actual conditions. Some local governments have implemented land price restrictions to prevent the increase in "land flour" from driving "housing". The price of "bread" has risen.
For example, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development recently disclosed that it will build a "real estate and land linkage, one place, one policy" mechanism, and guide housing prices to the land transfer link.
Data map: Aerial photography of the real estate project on the west coast of Haikou.
Photo by Luo Yunfei
Yan Yuejin said, “With the increase in land supply in first-tier cities and the intensive supply of housing, the new housing market in the subsequent first-tier cities will have the momentum to cool down, which will also drive the further cooling of the second-hand housing market.”
"In some key cities, school districts still have housing looting, and we need to make efforts in land supply and housing supply in the future. In particular, the recent centralized land supply and centralized launch policies in large cities are worth learning from other cities. ." Yan Yuejin said.
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