(Financial World) After the "hard landing", what are the prospects for the recovery of the global aviation industry?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, February 28 (Liu Liang) In 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused an unprecedented "hard landing" for the global aviation industry.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that given that the global epidemic is still spreading, which may cause countries to continue to extend travel restrictions, the prospects for a large-scale recovery in the aviation industry this year are expected to be dire.

　　Affected by the epidemic, the global aviation industry suffered heavy losses last year.

According to the latest data released by IATA this month, global air passenger demand (calculated by revenue passenger kilometer) in 2020 has dropped by 65.9% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in the history of air transportation so far.

In addition, since the end of December last year, forward bookings have also fallen sharply.

　　With the sharp decline in passenger demand, the global civil aviation industry's revenue generation has also shrunk sharply.

According to ICAO data, the total number of passengers in 2020 has dropped by 60%, with only 1.8 billion passengers travelling by air.

This has caused serious economic losses of approximately US$370 billion to the civil aviation industry.

　　In response to this crisis, major airlines have carried out "self-rescue operations" by reducing flights, grounding flights, layoffs, salary cuts, mandatory vacations, etc.; the government has issued a series of "emergency plans" to save industry giants on the verge of bankruptcy ; Industry associations urge all walks of life to provide airlines with emergency liquidity funds to help them tide over the epidemic.

　　But even so, industry insiders generally believe that it is not easy for the global aviation industry to achieve a large-scale recovery this year.

IATA predicts that in the worst-case scenario, global air passenger demand may only grow by 13% over last year.

This is in sharp contrast to the 50% rebound forecast released in December last year.

　　IATA chief economist Brian Pearce also bluntly stated that although passenger demand is strongly suppressed, strict restrictions on cross-border travel in response to the epidemic may further inhibit the recovery of the aviation industry.

Before the travel restrictions are relaxed, the hope may still have to be pinned on a wide range of vaccinations.

　　In view of the different epidemics and economic situations of various countries, the recovery of the aviation industry has also been clearly divided.

At present, China, which has performed well in terms of economy and epidemic situation, has taken the lead out of the trough, and various business indicators of the domestic aviation industry have generally improved.

But at the same time, in areas where the epidemic is still severe, the aviation industry is still deeply mired.

US media reported that with the rapid spread of the mutant virus, the US epidemic situation is still very dangerous, and its domestic aviation market will continue to be affected this year.

　　The outlook is mixed.

"The signs of recovery are still there, but they are minimal." Brian Pearce said that in recent weeks, what has been seen in recent weeks is that more countries have adopted stricter travel restrictions.

　　At the same time, IATA also stated that although passenger traffic has dropped significantly by more than 60% year-on-year, freight demand is still relatively optimistic, with a decline of only 11%.

"If the lower estimate of 13% can be achieved, this would be equivalent to 38% of the pre-pandemic level."

　　As the aviation industry is still “fighting its wings and difficult to fly” in the short term, ICAO pointed out that “local travel” may become the engine of industry recovery, especially in China and Russia, where the number of domestic passengers has almost recovered to before the epidemic s level.

　　In the long run, Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the prospects for the aviation industry may be more positive as the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and vaccination rates around the world are moving in the right direction.

In addition, the aviation industry is also continuing to implement a number of measures to reduce the spread of the epidemic and increase public confidence.

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