The first data release after the base period rotation of the price index shows that-

Prices are generally stable (Rui Finance)

　　Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on national consumer prices and national industrial producer prices based on the 2020 base period. This is the first data release after the base period of the price index is rotated.

Data show that in January 2021, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year and rose by 1.0% month-on-month, and the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers rose by 0.3% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month.

According to expert analysis, the year-on-year changes in the CPI in the first year were greatly affected by the high base of the previous year. After March, the CPI is expected to resume a relatively stable year-on-year positive growth. The overall price trend for the year is expected to be in a moderate state.

CPI in January fell 0.3% year-on-year

　　Look at CPI-"From a month-on-month perspective, due to the approaching festivals, local epidemics, and low temperature weather, the CPI rose by 1.0% in January, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; from a year-on-year perspective, the same period last year was due to the wrong month of the Spring Festival. The comparison base is high, and the CPI has changed from a 0.2% increase last month to a decrease of 0.3%." Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that food prices rose 4.1% month-on-month in January, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, affecting the CPI's rise by about 0.78 Percentage points.

　　Specifically, due to cooling and rain and snow in some areas, the cost of production, storage and transportation of fresh vegetables increased in January, with prices rising 19.0%, an increase of 10.5 percentage points; affected by factors such as increased consumer demand before the holiday and rising feed costs, The prices of pork, beef and lamb rose by 5.6%, 1.2% and 2.7% respectively.

　　Look at the PPI-domestic demand continued to improve, and the prices of international commodities such as crude oil and iron ore continued to rise, driving the PPI to increase by 1.0% month-on-month and 0.3% year-on-year in January.

According to Dong Lijuan’s analysis, the recent international crude oil prices have continued to rise, driving domestic oil-related industry prices to rise more, oil and natural gas extraction prices rose by 8.2%, oil, coal and other fuel processing industries prices rose by 5.3%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing The price rose by 1.0%, which affected the PPI increase by about 0.36 percentage points in total.

　　"The year-on-year decrease in CPI is related to the high base of the same period last year, and the other is affected by service prices." Jiang Zhao, Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters. Return to a positive growth range. The economy continued to recover, the demand side was repaired, and the recovery of production combined with the rise in prices of upstream primary products helped PPI to stop falling and return to positive year-on-year. After excluding seasonal factors, the recovery of production continued."

"Fixed basket" adjusted in time

　　The release of CPI and PPI data in January this year was the first data release since China started the base period rotation.

According to reports, the base period rotation is an important basic work for price statistical surveys, and it is also an international practice and common practice.

　　"In order to adapt to the new changes in the trading structure of goods and services in the production, circulation, and consumption sectors under the rapid economic and social development, to further increase the representativeness of the price index, and to more accurately monitor and reflect the actual changes in the market supply and demand relationship, it is necessary to develop a base period for the price index. Rotation." said the head of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　Jiang Zhao believes that with economic and social development, the consumption structure of residents has also changed accordingly. The "fixed basket" of the CPI survey needs to be adjusted in time, otherwise it will lose its representativeness and fail to reflect the latest consumption structure of residents.

"China regards the years ending with '5' and '0' as the base period, and rotates the base period every five years. The selected'basket' of goods and services is more representative in the current period and can be reflected more with the times Price changes." Jiang Zhao said, "After the adjustment, due to the different degree and direction of the impact of the various influencing factors on the price index results, they offset each other, and the overall impact is very small."

　　Today, new industries, new business formats, and new business models continue to emerge. Modern information technology such as the Internet and big data are deeply integrated with the real economy. CPI surveys are also facing new opportunities and challenges.

"Big data not only contains a large number of offline transaction records, but also contains a lot of online transaction information, which can enrich the sources of price data and increase the representativeness of the data. It is an important direction for future price statistics expansion." said the head of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics .

Stable and guaranteed prices

　　What are the price changes during the Spring Festival?

How do you see future price trends?

　　The person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce introduced that during the Spring Festival this year, the quantity of daily necessities was sufficient and the price was stable.

The supply of daily necessities in various regions is abundant, with abundant varieties, and prices have stabilized at a high level, but have decreased while maintaining stability.

　　According to the Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of key retail enterprises in 36 large and medium-sized cities and one hundred large-scale agricultural and sideline product wholesale markets across the country, the retail and wholesale prices of grain on February 17 decreased by 0.1% and 0.4% respectively from those before the holiday (February 10); The retail and wholesale prices of oil were flat and 0.1% respectively; the retail and wholesale prices of pork rose 0.4% and 1.5% respectively; the retail and wholesale prices of beef fell 0.5% and 0.4% respectively; the retail and wholesale prices of mutton fell 0.4% and Increased by 0.8%; the retail and wholesale prices of eggs fell by 0.4% and 1.7% respectively; the retail and wholesale prices of vegetables rose by 1.1% and fell by 1.9%.

　　"During the Spring Festival, the price of daily necessities is basically stable thanks to the efforts of multiple parties." Jiang Zhao said, "The Ministry of Commerce has increased coordination and guided commercial enterprises to strengthen the supply of daily necessities. If, in conjunction with relevant departments, the China Chain Store and Franchise Association calls on the entire industry to work together The initiative of'guaranteing supply, stabilizing prices, and continuing to open business' has been launched, which has achieved obvious results and promoted stable and moderate declines in prices of grain and eggs.

　　Experts pointed out that looking forward to the future, the Spring Festival effect will continue to drive the CPI to maintain a certain rate of increase. However, due to the high base of the previous year, it is unlikely that the CPI will experience positive year-on-year growth.

"The market is adequately supplied. Under this background, it is guaranteed that prices will remain stable throughout the year." Jiang Zhao said.

　　Kong Dechen