Crisis Spain must multiply the vaccination rate by seven to save the summer campaign
The Foundation of Savings Banks (Funcas)
has lowered
its estimate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by
one point, to 5.7%
, for this year due to the delay in the start of the recovery as a result of the third wave of Covid-19.
"The
maintenance of strong restrictions on activity and mobility, together with the slow progress of the vaccination campaign
, weighs down private consumption and keeps the tourism and hospitality sectors at a minimum of activity. To the weakness of domestic demand Added to this is the contraction of some of the main export markets, particularly in Europe, where short-term indicators are on the decline, especially in Germany and France, "says Funcas in the document
Forecasts for the Spanish economy 2021-2022
.
"The
cut mainly reflects the lower growth of private consumption
, as a consequence of the reluctance of households to spend in a context of prolonged health crisis. The forecast of partial recovery of investment is maintained, in line with the expected stimulus from funds Europeans, "the report adds.
The 5.7% figure
is still further away from the 9.8% forecast
that the Government set out in the General State Budgets (PGE), and is also a figure significantly lower than 7% in the "inertial state" that defends the vice president of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño.
For 2022, the Foundation expects a growth of 6.3%
, one tenth more than previously estimated, since part of the dammed demand of some 56,000 million euros will continue to be gradually absorbed, as well as an improvement in tourism once completed the phase of vaccination against the virus, reports Europa Press.
A forecast dependent on tourism
"
This is a forecast highly dependent on tourism
, given that if we reached 50% of the value of a normal tourist campaign this year, instead of the estimated 26%, GDP growth could rise to 7% this year and 6, 7% next year ", has indicated the director of Situation and International Analysis of Funcas, Raymond Torres, who has not ruled out in the press conference presenting the document that this scenario is not possible.
On the contrary, with a tourist season of 12% of its usual value, growth this year would be reduced to 4.2% and next year, to 5.3%.
In view of the important impact of tourism, Funcas assures that the main challenge of the recovery will be to accelerate the vaccination process and provide certainty.
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Crisis
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EconomyThe closure of the hotel industry triggers the ERTE with 1,300 more affected
Castellón40% of the companies in the province resort to an ICO due to lack of liquidity
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